How 3-point shooting helped carry the Mavericks and Celtics to the NBA Finals

Doc Rivers should collect royalties for his line, “It’s a make-or-miss league.” The accuracy and simplicity of the statement makes it one of the best explanations for everything in the NBA, but in the past decade it has shifted toward, “It’s make or miss your 3s.” With the ever-rising reliance on the 3-point shot, teams' fates have veered beyond the arc.

3-point shooting determines your basketball fate

The NBA, for better or for worse, has become a 3-point shooting league. During the 2023-24 regular season, a team’s 3-point percentage differential had a 0.82 linear correlation to their net rating. In simple terms, how well a team outshot their opponent from 3-point range strongly correlated to how well they outscored their opponent. And if none of that made sense and you’re a visual learner, here’s a chart. 

Basketball is about much more than just 3-point shooting but it has become a massive factor in determining team success and that extends to the playoffs. In the 2023-24 playoffs, 3-point shooting differential and net rating saw a decline in their correlation to 0.66. However, the correlation between per 100 possession 3-point field goal difference exploded to 0.87, up from 0.53 during the regular season. 

Winning the 3-point battle wins playoff games

Net rating is one of the best predictive stats publicly available, but it doesn’t ultimately matter what your net rating is. The NBA is about winning, and the playoffs even more so. The Dallas Mavericks have a plus-4.4 net rating in the playoffs, right behind the Minnesota Timberwolves at plus-4.5. However, the Mavericks are in the NBA Finals and just beat the Timberwolves in five games in the Western Conference Finals. Based on net rating you could say the Timberwolves were the better team, but that doesn’t matter because they’re watching the Finals from the comfort of their couch while the Mavericks will be sweating it out. 

Getting even more simplistic, over 78 playoff games, the winning team either equal or exceeded their opponent’s total 3-point field goals or 3-point shooting percentage in 61 games. Simply winning the 3-point battle led to a 61-17 playoff record or a 78.2 percent win percentage. In fact, the team that attempted more 3-pointers posted a 51-27 record, good for a 65.4 percent win percentage. 

Last season, Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzula was criticized for his determination to attempt more 3s than his opponents, but as he correctly pointed out, it’s a winning strategy. While that much-maligned strategy didn’t see the Celtics make a run to the Finals, they’re there now, and oddly, no one seems to be questioning the strategy. 

How the Mavericks and Celtics have shot the ball from 3

The Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics have had wildly different paths to the NBA Finals, but one thing that they share in common has been their ability to consistently outshoot their opponents from 3-point range and still find a way to win even when they don’t. 

Among all playoff teams, the Celtics rank second in 3-point percentage differential at plus-3.0 percent and the Mavericks rank fourth at plus-1.6 percent. The teams in first and third, the Clippers and Magic, couldn't make it out of the first round due to wild swings in their 3-point shooting and a bit of bad luck. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that two of the teams who dominated the 3-point line on both sides of the ball made it to the Finals, but what is a surprise is how they’ve persevered in games where they lost the 3-point efficiency battle. 

Over 17 playoff games, the Mavericks have a 12-5 record, winning the 3-point efficiency battle nine times, tying twice, and losing six times. In games where they won the battle, they went 8-1, in ties, they were 2-0, and in losses, they mustered a 2-4 record. Based on the overall sample of the 2023-24 playoffs, you would have expected the Mavericks to go 7-2 in games where they won the 3-point efficiency battle, 1-1 in ties, and 1-5 in games where they lost the battle for an overall record of 9-8. 

Simply boiling the playoffs down to 3-point shooting is wildly unfair, but it does suggest the Mavericks have had a bit of good fortune on their playoff run, and the same can be said of the Boston Celtics. The Celtics blitzed a weak and injury-riddled slate of Eastern Conference foes to a 12-2 record, winning the 3-point efficiency battle nine times and losing it five times. The Celtics went 9-0 in games where they won the battle and an astounding 3-2 in games when they lost it. Using the same methodology as before, you would have expected the Celtics to go 8-6 across their 14 playoff contests. 

The Celtics and Mavericks won within the arc to reach the Finals

Are the Celtics and Mavericks lucky to be in the Finals? Based upon 3-point shooting you can say they were lucky to make the Finals in as few games as it took them, but the real reason they’re in the Finals is how they’ve excelled everywhere else to weather fluctuations in 3-point shooting. 

In the playoffs, the Celtics are third in 2-point efficiency (58.2 percent), and the Mavericks are fifth (54.0 percent). The Mavericks are fourth in free throw attempt rate (.288), ranking first among teams to make it out of the first round, and own the second-best offensive rebound rate (27.3 percent). The Celtics haven’t been as dominant at the line or on the offensive glass, but have the fifth-lowest turnover percentage (11.1 percent) to go along with the best true shooting percentage (60.0 percent). 

On the defensive side, the Mavericks have had the third-best defensive field goal percentage (64.0 percent) on shots 0-3 feet from the basket, and the Celtics have allowed the fewest field goal attempts 0-3 feet from the basket of teams to advance out of the first round. The Celtics have also posted the best defensive rebound rate (81.6 percent) and opponent free throw attempts per 100 possessions (13.4) in the playoffs. 

At the macro level, 3-point shooting is one of the most crucial components of playoff basketball, but at the micro level, the playoffs are all about how you can survive without it. The Mavericks and Celtics have excelled away from the 3-point line, which has made their strong showings defending and scoring beyond the arc even more successful. The winner of this series will likely win the 3-point battle, but what happens within the arc will have a significant say in who lifts the Larry O’Brien trophy.