The Whiteboard: 3-pointers settled things for the Lakers, Kings

The first two games in the NBA Play-In Tournament presented no shortage of drama, even if only one of the games was in doubt down the stretch. The Lakers beat the Pelicans, 110-106, locking up the No. 7 seed and a first-round matchup with the Nuggets. The Kings thrashed the Warriors, 118-94, eliminating Golden State and setting up a winner-take-all game against the Pelicans for the No. 8 seed.

Zion Williamson had the most impressive individual stat line of the night — 40 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists in the loss. But almost all the noteworthy numbers of the night, in both games, were about long-distance shooting.

Keegan Murray hit 8-of-13 from beyond the arc, scoring a game-high 32 points for the Kings. Harrison Barnes and Keon Ellis combined to go 6-of-8. On the other side, Klay Thompson was 0-of-6 (0-of-10 from the field) and the Warriors collectively shot 31.3 percent. In the other game, the Lakers' supporting cast showed up in a huge way — 9-of-18 from beyond the arc from Rui Hachimura, D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves. For the Pelicans, CJ McCollum was 1-of-9 and the Pelicans, collectively shot 30 percent.

Outside shooting wasn't the only variable that decided these two games but it may have been the most dramatic, especially since it broken so neatly into the makers and the missers.

It's a make-or-miss league

The graph below shows the numbers for each of the four Western Conference Play-In teams on open (no defender within four feet) and wide-open (no defender within six feet) 3-point attempts.

PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT SHOOTING ON OPEN AND WIDE-OPEN 3-POINTERS

These are attempts on which the defense ostensibly has no impact on whether a shot is made or not — good perimeter defense in this case is making sure a team simply doesn't have any open or wide-open shots. But once the shooter launches begins their shot it's essentially in their own hands.

Clearly the Lakers and Kings did a great job in reducing open attempts for the Pelicans and Kings, but they also benefitted from some luck. The Lakers shot just 38.0 percent on open and wide-open 3-pointers during the regular season, the Pelicans hit 39.4. If both teams had hit the same open and wide-open attempts in this game at their reegular season averages, it would have been a nine-point swing in favor of the Pelicans, enough to change the final outcome.

If we apply the same transformation to the Warriors and Kings, we get a 12-point swing in favor of the Warriors — not enough to change the outcome but enough to turn a blowout into a competitive game.

Again, plenty of other variables were at play. The Lakers had no defensive answer for Zion Williamson and him leaving the game with a hamstring injury may have eliminated the Pelicans best shot at a comeback. The Warriors couldn't keep anyone in front of them and the Kings' relentless penetration compromised their defense in myriad ways. But sometimes, especially in a single-game playoff, it just comes down to who makes their shots and who doesn't.

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Bucks prepping for life without Giannis

According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, the Bucks are expecting to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo at the beginning of their series against the Pacers. The Bucks and Pacers gave us some of the best and most heated games in the regular season but also established a troubling precedent for Milwaukee.

The Bucks played a disastrous 53 minutes across five games against Indiana without Giannis — getting outscored by a ridiculous 34.5 points per 100 possessions and managing to score just 102.7 per 100. All five of these games came before Doc Rivers replaced Adrian Griffin but the coaching change has been anything but successful and Rivers has arguably made the Bucks' offense significantly worse.

It sounds like the Bucks could have him back on the court before the series is over. But if Indiana can leverage this opportunity to steal a game or two in Milwaukee, a challenging series could become something even more difficult.

READ MORE:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo injury update: Bucks sound alarm bells before Game 1 vs. Pacers by Chris Kline, for FanSided
• How the Bucks’ regular-season matchups with Pacers changed Milwaukee’s season by Eric Nehm, for The Athletic
• What’s up Doc? The Milwaukee Bucks’ struggles under Doc Rivers by N.B. Lindberg, for FanSided

Quick-Hitter: What's next for the Warriors?

The Warriors are officially done and staring down an offseason of enormous decisions. In post-game comments, everyone seemed to express a willingness to keep their core together but it may be easier said than done, especially if Klay Thompson really is drawing inspiration from the TK-year, TK-million extension Jrue Holiday just signed.

Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins are all under contract next year at significant cap hits. Chris Paul and Kevon Looney are not guaranteed and at least Paul is likely gone. Gary Payton II has a significant player option that he'll likely pick up, adding just over $9 million to the books. The Warriors also have Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis under control at reasonable numbers. Klay and Dario Saric are both unrestricted free agents.

Trading Wiggins, cutting Paul and setting up a sign-and-trade for Klay are the most obvious ways for the Warriors to implement big changes but it's not entirely clear what they can actually accomplish with those three moves. They still can't get anywhere close to max cap space to chase a star. The market for Wiggins is going to be fairly anemic considering his struggles this year and the two most commonly mentioned suitors for Klay — the Magic and Pistons — don't have a ton of win-now pieces to send back in a sign-and-trade.

All that means the core next season is almost still Curry, Draymond and the young guys, with tweaking around the margins the only real difference between this year's roster and the hypothetical contender they're aspiring to be. That's a tall, tall order.

Recommended Reading:

1. Rivals, Frenemies, Peers, Contemporaries: "There is a failure in language when it comes to describing the cosmic synchronicity of LeBron James and Steph Curry. The two are bound together in ways few players in league history have ever been—from where they both entered this world (in the same maternity ward on the same floor in Akron) to where they stand today as standard-bearers of sustained excellence. Their stark difference in physical stature suggests a certain Messi-Ronaldo dynamic, yet it’s not the consensus to consider the two players rivals at all. That’s interesting, isn’t it?" The End for LeBron and Steph Is Uncomfortably Close

2. We're still disrespecting Jalen Brunson: "How can Team USA leave Jalen Brunson, arguably the best American-born player in the Association this season, off their Olympic roster? HoopsHype deemed him the second-best performer from the land of opportunity in 2023-24 based on their Global Rating scale." 3 American players Team USA will regret not adding to its loaded Olympics roster

3. It could be a very quiet NBA summer: "If I were a GM, my read would be that it is a credible star group by current standards but a functionally weak one if I had cap space because it will be hard, if not impossible, to pry any of these talented players away from their current teams." Evaluating the 2024 NBA free-agent class, from Klay Thompson to DeMar DeRozan and more