3 St. Louis Cardinals free agents who won't be back in 2025 and why

The St. Louis Cardinals have a long winter ahead of them, as John Mozeliak heads into the final year of his own contract needing to put up, or shut up. One of the obvious choice St. Louis must make is whether to bring back manager Oli Marmol. Despite signing a contract extension prior to the regular season, Marmol looks like an easy fall guy for the Cardinals. St. Louis won just 71 games in 2023, and they're on pace to miss the playoffs this year, as they sit well behind the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves for the final Wild Card spot.

Fans are right to be fuming over the Cardinals decision to give Marmol a contract extension to begin with, but this article isn't about Marmol, as he isn't a free agent. Technically, both he and Mozeliak are signed through the 2025 season, though it's unlikely both make it that far.

The vast majority of the Cardinals roster is under contract beyond next season. Lance Lynn, Keynan Middleton and Kyle Gibson have club options, and it's tough to see St. Louis parting ways with any of them at their current market rate. Middleton showed flashes in 2023 but was injured this season, while Gibson and Lynn were decent middle-of-the-rotation arms. Mozeliak would be wise to keep all three. Some players won't be as lucky.

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3. Paul Goldschmidt won't return to the Cardinals unless it's on a discount

Paul Goldschmidt's future has been discussed ad nauseam this season. Goldschmidt was traded to St. Louis after the 2018 season, and made the NL All-Star team in 2022. This season he's seen a downturn at the worst possible time -- a contract year -- and slashed just .245/.302/.411 for a .714 OPS. Goldschmidt remains an above-average first baseman, but those don't make nearly as much money as he does right now. A change of scenery could do Goldy some good, especially if it's a return to Arizona, where the Diamondbacks are at risk of losing their own star first baseman Christian Walker.

There were rumblings that Goldschmidt was open to returning on a discount, something St. Louis would certainly be open to. There's a reason he is only third on this list, and it's because the Cardinals value his clubhouse presence. If the Cards were forced to replace Goldy, they could sign one of the available first baseman on the free-agent market such as Pete Alonso or Walker. They could replace him from within, as there were hints Jordan Walker could switch positions at some point this season (though that never materialized).

Why Paul Goldschmidt won't return: The first base market is barren, meaning someone will pay Goldschmidt beyond his market value. The Cardinals can do better.

2. Andrew Kittredge was too good for the Cardinals to keep

The market for productive back-end relief pitchers is abundant. Bullpens have never been more important, as managers watch pitch counts for high-end starting pitchers like hawks, hoping to avoid a dreaded elbow injury late in the season. Kittredge has been dependable for the Cards this season, though he unfortunately will not get to pitch in the postseason. He has a 2.92 ERA in 64 games pitched.

If St. Louis can keep Kittredge at an affordable asking price, they will, but this team has too many holes to fill to spend that much money on relief pitching. That's where the Cardinals and Kittredge don't match up. If Kittredge leaves, the Cards will be banking on Ryan Fernandez to fill his role, along with a bounceback campaign from Middleton, who missed the 2024 season due to injury.

Why Andrew Kittredge won't return: Cardinals can't afford him.

1. Matt Carpenter doesn't have much left to give the Cardinals

Matt Carpenter hasn't admitted this is the end, but it's tough to see another team taking a chance on him at this point in his career. Carpenter is 38 years old and, frankly, not very good. He has slashed .236/.317/.378 in just 54 games this season. His OPS suggests he is below replacement level, and this is one of the rare cases the basic stats paint the entire picture.

Carp was a worthwhile addition to the roster this season. Much like Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols in their final seasons, Carpenter was vital in the Cardinals locker room in what's been another tough season for St. Louis. Possibly saying goodbye to Carpenter has given Cards fans another reason to attend borderline meaningless games at Busch Stadium late this season. He's a fan favorite, after all. Thomas Gauvain of Redbird Rants theorized that this would be Carpenter's final season just a few days ago:

"With just over two weeks left in the regular season, it may be time to bid farewell to the three-time All-Star," Gauvain said. "Carpenter, now 38, hasn't officially stated that this will be his last year, but it's seeming more and more likely as his role has become diminished in recent years."

If Carpenter does intend to retire, he ought to announce so now, and allow Marmol to play him on the Cards final homestand at the end of September. His time in St. Louis is likely over either way.

Why Matt Carpenter won't return: Cardinals legend might retire