30 games that will eventually decide the 12-team College Football Playoff

Every year, a few games change the scope and brevity of the race towards the College Football Playoff. This year, one game already made a major impact, and these 30 others should give us a look into who will participate in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.
Michigan defensive lineman Kris Jenkins (94) celebrates a tackle against Ohio State.
Michigan defensive lineman Kris Jenkins (94) celebrates a tackle against Ohio State. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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Can you imagine how differently the College Football Playoff would have looked like last season if Penn State took down Michigan in early November? What about if Alabama fell to Auburn in the Iron Bowl? If Oregon took out Washington in October, their Pac 12 Championship loss would have caused even more controversy.

What we're saying is the College Football Playoff can come down to one win or loss. A simple last-minute field goal, referee decision, or interception on a final drive could determine who is the National Champion. With a 12-team College Football Playoff for the first time ever, there is even more potential for psychosis in the rankings. With so much on the line, which games are the most important to the season?

One quick note: there will be no conference championship games on this list. Those obviously choose Playoff participants, but we're choosing games that are currently on the schedule.

30. Iowa vs. Ohio State: Oct. 5

Iowa always seems to find itself in the Big Ten Championship Game. They have a stranglehold on their division within the Big Ten, but that won’t happen this season. With the Big Ten stretching from 14 to 18 teams and stretching from one coast to the other, the division format is gone. Iowa has to make it to the Championship Game the old-fashioned way, by being one of the top two teams in the conference.

That means they have to be better than most of their opponents. That includes Ohio State, who hasn’t played a close game against Iowa in a while. The last time these two met in 2022, the Buckeyes embarrassed the Hawkeyes, beating them by more than 40 points. They previously played in 2017, a game Iowa surprisingly won. 

This year, Ohio State is desperate. They have one of the most talented teams in the country. No matter what brass says in Columbus, Ryan Day is coaching for his job. It’s one thing to lose to the reigning National Champion Michigan. It’s another to lose to Iowa. Yet, this game could decide who makes it to the end if another team wins the conference.