3M Open picks 2024: Expert picks, best bets for TPC Twin Cities

It's hard to believe but we have just two PGA Tour events and the Summer Olympics in Paris until we have arrived at the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Next stop before our attention goes back to Europe and Le Golf National is the 2024 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. It may not be the field that will turn heads but this has often been one of the most fun and chaotic tournaments on Tour and we're looking for that with our 3M Open picks.

No two ways about it, The Open Championship was not the big boom we were hoping for. We did, thankfully, comfortably cash Russell Henley for a Top 20 but that was it. So we were in the red once again in a season where we've knocked on the door so many times with our PGA Tour expert picks only to fall short (to be sure, there have been some just outright awful weeks in there too).

But we're heading to Blaine, MN this week with a tournament that I believe I have a pretty good feel for and I'm excited about the card. So let's get right into our 3M Open picks for the week with plenty of best bets and analysis of TPC Twin Cities this week.

All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Golf betting record in 2024 through The Open: 25-163-0, -43.98 Units (1-70 on outrights and longshots | -3.5 units at The Open) | One and Done Total for 2024: $14,692,397 (Hideki Matsuyama at The Open, $40,280)

3M Open picks for Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for the 3M Open: Nick Dunlap (+350)

While most golf fans were focused on The Open, it was Nick Dunlap winning for the second time this year on the PGA Tour at 20 years old at the Barracuda. And while he did have some troubles after turning pro following his first win, he's started to look the part of an enticing up-and-comer. Over the last 12 rounds, Dunlap is eighth in this week's field SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green while hitting an absurd 82.6% of greens in regulation. He's also fifth in the field in Opportunities Gained over the last 20 rounds, a metric measuring the number of under-par scoring chances gained vs. the field. I don't expect him to be hurt too badly by his around the green play, which is the one worry in his profile, so I'll take him heartily to grab a Top 10 on the heels of his win.

Pick to win the 3M Open (0.5 Units): Luke Clanton (+2500)

I'm always in danger of getting swept up in the hype train but there are quite a lot of young guys in this week's filed at the 3M Open who have my attention. Luke Clanton might offer the least amount of value but also might be my favorite upside play as well. Over his last 20 rounds among players teeing it up this week, Clanton is first in SG: Off-the-Tee and Birdie or Better Gained Percentage while also ranking 11th in SG: Approach, 13th in Par 5 Scoring and third in Opportunities Gained. He's been scoring ridiculously and, in similar levels of field, he finished T10 at the Rocket Mortgage and T2 at the John Deere. A breakout win could be coming and I'm taking a shot on that here.

One and Done pick for the 3M Open: Akshay Bhatia

I pivoted away from Luke Clanton at the last second because, well, there is some volatility in that play. However, I went with Akshay Bhatia instead with what I believe is a higher floor. Another winner already this year, Bhatia has been dialed-in with his driving and approach play is at the core of his DNA. That should play here and if the broomstick putter stays his friend, he can absolutely make some noise this week.

3M Open picks: More best bets for TPC Twin Cities

Jhonattan Vegas to finish Top 20 at the 3M Open (+240)

There's no world wherein I expected to be hitching my wagon to Jhonattan Vegas but here we are. We start with his 3M Open history, which includes two starts that resulted first in a missed cut but then followed up with a runner-up finish in 2021. Meanwhile, Vegas is rounding into some intriguing form. He's fourth in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee, 38th in SG: Approach and second in this field in Good Drive Percentage. He's finding the ball striking that we like to see when he's trending, which has resulted in T27, T25 and T20 finishes in his last three starts. The trends are there, the history is there and I'm going to take a look at Vegas this week.

Callum Tarren to finish Top 40 at the 3M Open (+200)

We truly haven't seen the best golf from Callum Tarren this year, especially not in comparison to 2023. For evidence, the rollercoaster has resulted in a T57, missed cut, T21 and missed cut in his last four starts coming into the 3M Open. However, his history at this event is stellar with a T7 and T13 in two starts the past two years. Having some pop weeks already on his resumé this year already, a Top 40 play at 2/1 odds feels like enough value to add to the card.

Adam Hadwin and Luke Clanton to both finish Top 20 at the 3M Open (+546, DraftKings)

We've already touched on Clanton and we're slightly doubling down on his upside by parlaying him to finish Top 20 with Adam Hadwin to do the same (with ties included!). While the past two starts at the 3M haven't been great for the Canadian, he finished T6 and solo fourth here in his previous two starts at TPC Twin Cities. And while his recent finishes have been middling outside of a solo third at the Memorial, he's still 30th in SG: Approach, 12th in Par 5 Scoring and 22nd in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage in this field over teh last 20 rounds. He's a guy who tends to pop seemingly out of nowhere and, in such a weak field, I love the value on this little mini-parlay.

Longshot pick to win the 3M Open (0.1 Units): Callum Tarren (+20000)

Tarren has already been spoken upon and, though his recent form isn't the best, his course history and talent combined with him being 200/1 to win make him too enticing for me to pass up for our longshot sprinkle.