4 Phillies to blame for letting Braves, Mets back in NL East race

When the Philadelphia Phillies swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in their second-to-last series before the All-Star break, there was reason to peg them as World Series favorites. They had the best record in baseball, and swept arguably their toughest competition, outscoring them 19-5 in the three games.

Since that sweep, though, the Phillies have looked like a different team. They lost two of three to Oakland at home before the All-Star break, and have come out of the break only looking worse. They've gone 4-12 in the second half, including a six-game losing streak. They snapped the skid on Sunday with an encouraging win over the Mariners, and then lost Monday's series opener against the same Dodgers team that they had just swept in July.

Their 66-46 record is still the best in the National League, but barely. The Dodgers are 66-47, sitting right behind them in the NL standings. They were 61-32 with a 9.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves and a 13.5-game lead over the New York Mets after sweeping the Dodgers. FanGraphs gave them a 90.5 percent chance to win the NL East.

Fast forward to today, Tuesday, August 6, and the standings look very different. The Phillies still lead the NL East, but their lead is down to 5.5 games over the Braves and 7.0 games over the Mets. Their odds of winning the division are down to 77.3 percent. They're still the favorites, as they should be with a 5.5-game lead, but the gap is tightening. With six more games to go in a brutal West Coast trip, things can potentially get even worse. Let's not forget that they still have three more games to play against the Braves and seven against the Mets, too.

While mostly everyone is to blame, these four players in particular should receive most of the ridicule for allowing the Braves and Mets to get back into the division race ever so slightly,

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4) Jose Alvarado's struggles have been noticeable

Jose Alvarado's season got off to a brutal start when he allowed five runs in his first appearance of the season, but for the months that followed he'd be dominant out of the Phillies bullpen.

The southpaw had a 1.83 ERA in his next 36 appearances, allowing just seven earned runs in 34.1 innings of work. He was proving to be a very important piece late in games out of the bullpen for the Phillies alongside Jeff Hoffman.

Unfortunately, Alvarado has seen his ERA balloon to 8.38 over his last 11 appearances. He has allowed nine earned runs in his last 9.2 innings of work, blowing a save and taking two losses in the process. Alvarado already was taken out of high leverage situations amidst his struggles, and with Carlos Estevez in town, his path to closing is likely non-existent for the remainder of the season.

He blew three winnable games in a nine-day stretch including their first game post-All-Star break. The Phillies are fortunate that they added Estevez, but his arrival doesn't take back the games Alvarado blew before the deadline.

3) J.T. Realmuto has not looked like himself since returning from the IL

J.T. Realmuto was on the IL for over a month with a knee injury, but the Phillies were mostly fine without their All-Star catcher. Garrett Stubbs provided his usual good vibes, and Rafael Marchan actually showed a lot of promise offensively.

He returned from the IL on July 20, their second game after the All-Star break. He did so without going out on a rehab assignment first, and has looked as rusty as ever.

The 33-year-old has just eight hits in 38 at-bats in the 10 games he's played since his return. All eight of those hits have been singles. He has just one RBI. He has seen his season OPS drop from .720 to .688. They've gone just 3-7 in the games he has played in. If the Phillies want to win this division and make a deep run, they're going to need a lot more from Realmuto.

2) Trea Turner will need another standing ovation as he goes through a major slump

Last season, Phillies fans gave Trea Turner a standing ovation at a time when he really needed one. He was struggling mightily at the time, and the ovation was the turning point for his mid-season turnaround. He began the 2024 season on a strong note, and was even named an NL All-Star starter despite missing over a month with injury, but he has not begun his second half on the best foot.

Turner has a total of 10 hits in 64 second-half at-bats. He's slashing .156/.217/.256 with two home runs in 69 plate appearances. He has a total of three extra-base hits and just one stolen base in the 15 games he has played in. He has also been striking out way more than Phillies fans are accustomed to seeing. Simply put, these are not Trea Turner numbers.

Turner is hitting in a crucial spot in the order, behind Kyle Schwarber and in front of Bryce Harper. He needs to be the star he usually is, but has not been that lately. There's every reason to believe he'll break out of this slump, but the Phillies are going to need that to happen sooner rather than later to try and fend off their NL East competitors.

1) The Phillies can only hope Bryce Harper has snapped out of his slump

It might've flown a bit under the radar because of the incredible things that Shohei Ohtani was doing for the Dodgers, but it felt as if Bryce Harper had as good of a chance as anyone to win the NL MVP. He was as dominant as ever offensively, and was even performing at a very high level defensively despite first base being a newer position for him.

Perhaps his hamstring strain is still bothering him, but he has not looked like himself at all. Not only is Harper slashing .162/.197/.382 in his 16 games played since the All-Star break, but he went through a 1-for-34 slump in that 16-game stretch. How often do you see that from a player of Harper's caliber?

He did finally show signs of life on Sunday, recording three hits in four at-bats in a win against the Mariners with a home run. He doubled in Monday's game as well, although his three strikeouts were far from encouraging.

It doesn't have to be said how important Harper is to the success of this Phillies team. If he's going to be the .580 OPS player he's been in the second half, there's a very good chance they'll wind up losing the NL East. However, since he is Bryce Harper, there's reason to believe he'll bounce back sooner than later. Hopefully with some success in their past two games, Harper is officially back.