4 reasons why Aaron Judge can seize the all-time home run crown from Barry Bonds, 3 reasons blocking him

Aaron Judge is the most historic home run hitter of this generation. In 2022, he hit 62 to break the AL home run record set by Roger Maris in 1961. In 2017, he hit 52 to break the rookie home run record set by Mark MacGuire in 1987, though it was a title he lost in 2019 when Pete Alonso hit 53.

Today, Judge is after his fourth Silver Slugger award. With 42 games to go, Judge has 42 home runs on the season, one short of 300 career long balls. While that is a nice feather in anyone’s cap, let’s talk about the crème-de-la-crème of cap feathers (there is probably a better way of phrasing that).

Barry Bonds holds the highest career home run total in baseball with 762. The title of most prolific home run hitter in baseball has been passed down from the mantles of legends. It has passed through the hands of the Sultan of Swat in Babe Ruth, then Hammerin’ Hank Aaron, and now rests in the hands of Barry Bonds. Today, there is a glimmer of hope that the figurative trophy in question could once again reside in New York (technically Babe Ruth’s number 714 resides in Boston, possibly Atlanta, as Ruth’s last homer came while playing with the Boston Braves).

Understandably, Judge has a long way to go, but can he beat Bonds’ 762 career bombs? Let’s start with numbers that are in his favor then move to numbers that aren’t in his favor.

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The case for Judge claiming the crown

1. Judge’s historic HR pace

Ralph Kiner was the quickest player to 300 HR in terms of games played, hitting 300 in 1,087. Babe Ruth was the quickest in terms of at-bats hitting 300 in under 3,830. Judge sits at 299 HR with 953 games and 3,424 at-bats under his belt. When he hits his next home run, he will be the undisputed quickest player in baseball to reach the 300 HR mark. But what does this mean for his main competition in Bonds?

Bonds’ power didn’t begin to truly flourish until 1993, the first time he hit over 40 HR in a single season since making his debut in 1986. While Judge’s soon-to-be feat presents a challenge to Bonds’ record, this doesn’t exactly provide proof that Judge’s rise to the throne is a sure thing. But it does give him a leg up since he will be the quickest to this milestone. For that matter, he was off to a better start than Bonds. With this in mind, we will revisit HR pace in another section.

2. Judge vs Bonds in year-to-year home run count

Judge is currently on pace to hit more than 50 HR this year, something he has done twice before. Even as great as Bonds was for so many years, he only hit more than 49 HR once in his career when he set the single-season record of 73 in 2001. Can Judge top Bonds’ 73 in a single season? Probably not, but he doesn’t need to. As long as Judge can keep putting up HR totals above 50, he has an excellent shot at claiming the crown.

3. Judge vs Bonds in walk rate

This brings us to walk rate (BB%). As we all know, a walk means one less at-bat and no chance for a home run. Barry Bonds had a career walk rate of .203, a career percentage second only to Ted Williams’ .206. Judge has a career walk rate of .159. As much as pitchers pitch around or intentionally walk Judge, his walk rate is much lower than that of Bonds. This will give Judge more opportunities than Bonds had, and that might just be the deciding factor between these two titans.

4. Judge vs Bonds in career AB/HR

As promised, the HR pace discussion resumes here. For this test, we will use at-bats per home run (AB/HR). Throughout his career, Bonds hit home runs at a rate of 12.92 AB/HR, meaning he hit a home run every 13 at-bats which is extraordinary. But as great as that is, Judge’s career rate is 11.45 AB/HR.

Whether Judge can keep his historic pace or not isn’t something anyone can predict. One would assume Judge would go into a slowdown at some point, but he doesn’t seem to be anywhere near a slowdown yet. For now, this number rests in his favor. Judge’s current AB/HR rate this season is 9.98. In 2022, it was 9.19.

The case against Judge claiming the crown

1. Debut age

Barry Bonds made his debut in 1986 at age 21 (almost 22). Judge debuted at age 24 in 2016 and only saw 84 at-bats that year compared to Bonds’ 413 in 1986. While there isn’t much of a difference, starting your career sooner is a definite advantage. Aaron Judge will be over two years older than Barry Bonds was in every stage of his career and may retire having played less seasons than bonds if his excellence wears off. That brings us to another factor that depends on time.

2. Total years spent in the MLB

Bonds spent 22 years in the MLB and last played in 2007 at age of 43, though he didn’t officially retire until years later as no team would sign him. It was in that last year that he passed Hank Aaron and became the home run king. While the suppression of Bonds’ potential home run numbers may work to Judge’s advantage, Judge will still need to play for a long time to surmount Bonds’ total.

Judge is currently 32 years old and has played nine years in the MLB including his short debut year and the shortened 2020 MLB season. Should Judge take the full 22 years Bonds needed to rise to the top, Judge would need to play until 2038 when he will be 46 years old.

3. Injuries

If for any reason Judge doesn’t hit the 763 mark, it would most likely be because of this. Throughout his nine-year career, Aaron Judge has dealt with numerous injuries that have sidelined him for extensive periods of time. Since 2017 (excluding 2016 when Judge was called up), the Yankees’ played a total of 1152 games. In that time, Judge has only played 926. He has missed 226 games since the beginning of 2017.

Still, Bonds’ career wasn’t injury free either. The least productive season in Bonds’ career came in 2005 when he only played 14 games.

Can Judge ascend to the throne of the all-time greats?

Let’s say Judge finishes this season with 54 HR and plays his final game at age 44. Let's also assume that beyond this year, Judge averages 34 HR a season which will account for a slowdown and potential injuries in the future. At that rate, Judge will finish his career with 719 HR, 43 HR short of the all-time mark.

But don’t let my calculations and assumptions influence your perspective on what Judge can and can’t do. Can Judge blow my expected home run average out of the water? Yes, of course he can, and I fully expect him to. Can he play past age 44? Julio Franco retired at age 49. Being the superstar Judge is, he probably has more than 12 years of great to decent performance left in the tank. In other words, yes, Judge definitely can topple Bonds from the highest perch in baseball history.