5 2024 free agents the Braves should target after revealing player poll results
The Atlanta Braves are approaching an inflection point. With Ronald Acuña and Spencer Strider sidelined by injury, the offense is uncharacteristically impotent and the pitching staff is plagued by glaring holes. This is still a great team — maybe even a World Series team — but the Braves are on far less stable ground than we are accustomed to.
That said, the long-term outlook is still bright. All of Atlanta's core offensive pieces are locked up for years to come. Meanwhile, Alex Anthopoulos runs a tight ship in the front office. Even with a few key free agents shrouded in uncertainty, it's not like the Braves will let the roster fall into disrepair next offseason.
It helps that folks want to play in Atlanta. In a recent poll of over 100 MLB players conducted by The Athletic, the Braves were voted as the team most players want to play for (12.7 percent of 86 responses). Atlanta is a destination — the sole baseball powerhouse in the southeast and a consistent winner, with six straight NL East titles under their belt.
With players lining up for an opportunity to play in Atlanta, here are a few logical free agents for the Braves to pursue next winter.
5. Braves can poach Spencer Turnbull from division rival
The Philadelphia Phillies turned to Spencer Turnbull as the fifth starter early in the season and experienced tremendous success. The 31-year-old looked more than comfortable as a primary innings-eater, supplying the Phillies fandom with a brief reprieve from the stress of watching Taijuan Walker pitch.
Eventually, however, Walker returned to full health and reclaimed his spot in the starting rotation. It has been less than ideal, one impressive London Series performance aside. The Phillies' offense is potent enough to sustain one weak link in the starting five, but Turnbull's demotion to the relief staff has not gone over well.
As he enters free agency, Turnbull could leave Philadelphia in search of a stable starting gig. The Braves also happen to have issues with their fifth starting spot. Those concerns are amplified by the upcoming free agency of Max Fried and Charlie Morton. Both have greater than even odds of leaving, most likely, with Morton on the fast-track to retirement. Atlanta will need arms, and there's no guarantee that the likes of Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, and Spencer Schwellenbach are ready to rumble on a full-time basis.
Turnbull won't overwhelm hitters with velocity, but he gets a fair volume of swings and misses with precise location control and a deadly sweeper. His comfort level transitioning between a starting gig and the bullpen helps. If the Braves stumble into development from the youngsters, Turnbull can hold down the fort as a long reliever.
He has been consistently excellent this season, posting a 3-0 record with a 2.64 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 13 games (six starts). Talk about a hidden gem.
4. Braves can take the plunge on Tyler O'Neill
It has been difficult to establish a baseline opinion on Tyler O'Neill in recent years. The talent is undeniable. When he's healthy and in rhythm, there aren't too many superior two-way contributors in the outfield. Health has been the issue, though. O'Neill has played more than 100 games once in six MLB seasons, and he's already experiencing knee troubles in year seven with the Boston Red Sox.
It has been a tremendous experience for Boston fans when O'Neill is on the field. He's slashing .250/.354/.500 with 11 home runs and 18 RBI in 156 at-bats, drawing 23 walks. Factor in excellent defense out in left field, and most teams would love to employ the 28-year-old. He's set to enter free agency smack in the middle of his prime with more room to improve.
Of course, improvement is a muted benefit if O'Neill is never on the field when it matters. Boston has to be concerned about O'Neill's durability, which dump cold water on hopes of an extension. That's where the Braves can strike — perhaps at a bargain-bin price if teams shy away due to the perceived instability of O'Neill.
Jarred Kelenic has been fine out in left, but he's not the major upgrade over Kevin Pillar and Eddie Rosario that Braves fans expected. With Acuña hurt, Atlanta's limited outfield depth is on full display. The Adam Duvall signing was a major boon, but the Braves can still upgrade their outfield rotation. O'Neill, purely in terms of upside, outstrips the majority of affordable options available next winter. We can probably cross Juan Soto's name off the Braves' list if he's set to command north of $500, maybe even $600 million.
3. Braves can sign Merrill Kelly away from reigning NL champs
After shocking the world with a World Series appearance last October, the Arizona Diamondbacks have suffered a mean case of regression to the mean. Injuries have played a role, but it's clear the D-Backs are not built to sustainably contend with the current group. Maybe a late-season push shines a different light on Arizona, but right now, it's hard to imagine the Diamondbacks running back the same team.
Arizona pulled off a belated signing of Jordan Montgomery in the closing hours of free agency. Not unlike the other Scott Boras clients who missed spring training, Montgomery has looked completely out of whack. That means he is going to pick up his option for next season, without a doubt complicating Arizona's financial picture.
If the D'Backs end up needing to cut costs, well, Merrill Kelly is a free agent. He has been a stellar SP2 behind Zac Gallen, but at 35 years old, it's not like Kelly has several years of elite production left in the tank. If Atlanta comes with an aggressive offer — perhaps with two or three years of guaranteed cash — Kelly could pursue a World Series while plugging the hole(s) left by Charlie Morton and Max Fried.
Kelly is in the middle of an extended absence due to a shoulder strain, which drives home the concerns about longevity and durability. That could end up playing into the Braves' hands as a savvy contender looking for short-term bargains. In his brief time on the mound this season, Kelly has been excellent as usual. He is 2-0 in four starts with a 2.19 ERA and 0.932 WHIP, posting 21 strikeouts in 24.1 innings.
2. Braves can circle back to Kevin Pillar, who never wanted to leave
The Braves let Kevin Pillar leave for the Chicago White Sox last offseason despite the outfielder's public pleas to re-sign with Atlanta. Pillar loved the Braves, and would have gladly accepted a reduced role to stick in the southeast and contend for a World Series. Most Atlanta fans were glad to be rid of Pillar, who never really carried much weight in the batter's box. With Acuña on the mend (again), however, it's hard not to take a gander at Pillar's stats in Chicago.
To the surprise of, well, everybody in the MLB, Pillar has been one of the White Sox's most productive offensive weapons on a per-AB basis. He's still not entrenched as a full-time option, but Pillar is slashing .330/.388/.596 with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 109 AB. Those are absurd numbers for a platoon option, and absolutely stellar numbers for a potential stopgap at a positon of need.
Maybe Pillar's success is somehow tied to his relocation. He's in a more essential role with the White Sox, asked to contribute fruitfully to a team that cannot surround Pillar with eight All-Stars and a historically potent offense. Maybe Pillar wouldn't have the same success back in Atlanta, where he's touted less as a light in the dark and more as a necessary evil in left field.
Or, maybe Pillar has experienced a breakthrough on some level. It could be worth exploring if this is a sign of meaningful growth from Pillar, rather than a flukey flash in the pan at 35 years old. Atlanta should monitor Pillar for the rest of the season before pouncing, but hey, we definitely know Pillar wants to play in Braves Country. He could earn his way back onto the team with his current output.
1. Braves can put together a monster offer for Corbin Burnes
Why not?
Atlanta generally doesn't pay top dollar for veteran free agents, so we can probably rule this out. But, the Braves are still in the market to contend, and any self-respecting contender should at least entertain the concept of adding a perennial Cy Young candidate to the mix. The Baltimore Orioles appear well-positioned to keep Corbin Burnes beyond this season, but if he tests the open waters and Atlanta comes with a serious offer — the Braves did make a real push for Aaron Nola this past offseason — perhaps Burns considers a move down the coast.
This would transform the Braves' outlook in a serious way. With Strider back in the mix next season, Atlanta would boast the indisputable best 1-2-3 pitching punch in baseball. Strider, Sale, and Burnes would have the collective moxie, experience, and stuff to put even the best offenses into a catatonic state. Imagine drawing the Braves matchup in the postseason and staring down that trio. It's a tough sight.
Burnes is 29 years old, so he is going to demand a six, seven, maybe even eight-year deal with tons of guaranteed money. The Braves prefer homegrown talent signed to team-friendly extensions early in the development process, so again, Burnes falls outside the Braves' general strategic purview. But, who the heck cares? We are talking about Corbin Burnes, and it would be quite impressive for Atlanta to pull this one off.
Atlanta is going up against Los Angeles and Philadelphia in the National League, two of the spendiest teams in the MLB. Even the New York Mets are on the radar for Juan Soto next offseason. If the Braves want to regroup and stay competitive, this is the sort of aggressive, all-in approach Alex Anthopoulos should at least ponder.