5 biggest Week 1 fantasy football sleepers: Mayfield, Dowdle and more

You don’t need someone to tell you that Patrick Mahomes is worth starting in fantasy every week. Likewise with a number of players who enter the week as projected top 10 players at their positions.

But sometimes, you find yourself in a bind. Maybe your best two running backs are injured. Maybe it’s Week 9 and half your team is on a bye. At those times, you’ve got to reach down into the depths of the player pool and find some names. That’s where sleepers come into play.

To count as a sleeper, quarterbacks and tight ends need to be ranked outside the top 15 at their position on FantasyPros’ weekly rankings, while running backs are ranked outside the top 20 and wide receivers are ranked outside the top 25. Is all that pretty arbitrary? Yeah, it is, but isn’t everything in the world arbitrary? But you didn’t come here for some philosophizing — you’re here for some football, so let’s get to talking football.

1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 1 ranking: QB18

A Week 1 meeting with the Washington Commanders is the perfect way for any quarterback to start the year. In 2023, Washington allowed the most passing yards in the NFL at 4,627. If I’m streaming quarterbacks, I’d love to stream the guy going against the Commanders.

This week, that person is Baker Mayfield. Last year, Mayfield reinvigorated his career after joining the Buccaneers, throwing for a career-high 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns while posting the second-lowest interception rate of his career.

The end of Mayfield’s Cleveland tenure and then whatever happened in the 2022 season that he split between the Panthers and Rams really soured people’s views of the former No. 1 overall pick, but 2023 was a reminder that in the right situation, he’s a capable NFL QB. He’s a solid fantasy QB2 on a weekly basis, with the potential to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in weeks where he has a plus matchup. This is one of those weeks.

2. Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants

Week 1 ranking: RB29

The Giants moved on from Saquon Barkley this offseason and brought Devin Singletary in to replace. Now, I already know what you’re thinking — Singletary isn’t going to replace what Barkley brought to New York. You’re right about that. When healthy, Barkley has the talent to be a top-five running back. Singletary isn’t at that level.

But he’s still a really solid NFL running back who has rushed for 800-plus yards in three consecutive seasons. In 2023, Singletary joined the Texans for one season and was expected to be the backup for Dameon Pierce, but he ended up as the lead back, posting a career-high 898 rushing yards and finishing with over 1,000 scrimmage yards for the third time.

In Week 1, Singletary and the Giants face the Vikings. Minnesota had a strong run defense last year, but the loss of Danielle Hunter should cause issues for the team’s defense. Add in that there’s not really any other running backs on this roster who should threaten Singletary’s workload and Singletary’s ranking at RB29 this week feels very low.

3. Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Week 1 ranking: RB40

The Cowboys have plenty of question marks at running back entering 2024, but to me, the situation feels pretty simple. If you have three running backs and two are washed-up veterans who are coming off disappointing 2023 campaigns, then the other guy is probably the one you want to roster.

In this case, that player is Rico Dowdle. And while the two veterans he’ll fight for touches are big names in Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, those players both really struggled last season.

After originally joining the Cowboys in 2020, he saw his first extended action last season, carrying the ball 89 times for 361 yards and two touchdowns while catching 17 passes for 144 yards and two more scores. It wasn’t a breakout season, but he performed well behind Tony Pollard and should scale up his production this season.

4. Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers

Week 1 ranking: WR55

All the talk this offseason about Romeo Doubs has been positive. While Christian Watson is still expected to be the team’s No. 1 receiver, I think Doubs can really challenge him for that role.

Last season, Doubs caught 59 passes for 674 yards and eight touchdowns. The yardage production wasn’t quite as strong as fantasy managers might like, but he went on to average 117.0 receiving yards per game in two playoff contests. Doubs is a breakout waiting to happen, and this week he faces an Eagles defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2023.

And yet, he’s pretty much universally ranked outside the top 50 this weekend at wide receiver. The fact that the Packers have a lot of mouths to feed at receiver and added Josh Jacobs to the ground game certainly introduces risk here, but I’m confident in Doubs’s talent.

5. Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders

Week 1 ranking: TE27

After trading Jahan Dotson to the Eagles, there’s a good chance that tight end Zach Ertz winds up as the No. 2 option in the Commanders' passing attack behind Terry McLaurin. It might seem unlikely after the 33-year-old was a non-factor for the Cardinals last season, averaging just 26.7 receiving yards per game, but that’s how dire the situation is in Washington. Olamide Zaccheaus, Noah Brown, Luke McCaffrey and Dyami Brown are the receivers behind McLaurin and, well … none of those guys scare me. Rookie tight end Ben Sinnott has upside, but we all know rookie tight ends often struggle to adjust to the NFL.

A meeting with Tampa is a great way for Ertz to get his season rolling. The Bucs allowed the third-most fantasy points to TEs in 2023, and even if Sinnott takes over for Ertz later in the year, I expect most of the TE snaps and targets to go Ertz’s way in Week 1. If you’re in a bind at tight end, Ertz is a sneaky play with top-15 upside.