5 Dolphins stats from Week 1 that could decide TNF matchup with Bills

There’s no rest for the weary. After barely squeaking out a come-from-behind victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, the Miami Dolphins welcome the Buffalo Bills into Hard Rock Stadium for Thursday Night Football, having lost 11 of their last 12 matchups against their AFC East rivals.

Simply put, Josh Allen has their number But those aren’t the only digits that matter. Past isn’t always prologue, But the opening week of the season is the only thin ground teams have to stand on. Here are the five Dolphins numbers from Week 1 that forecast what is to come.

Week 1 Dolphins stats you need to know

Tua Tagovailoa: 338 passing yards

In Week 1, the Dolphins rolled out of the garage with a flat, trailing the Jags 17-7 at the half. Nothing seemed to be working. The connection between Tua Tagovailoa was spotty. Tagovailoa even did the inpossible by overthrowing Tyreek Hill in the first quarter on a deep route that surely would have resulted in a trip into the end zone if they’d connected. 

Following a fiery locker room speech from Tagovailoa, the Dolphins' offense erupted on the field as well. Hill’s hair-raising 80-yard catch-and-run wouldn’t have been possible if Tagovailoa’s throw didn’t hit him in stride. Every millisecond helped Hill get the space he needed. During the two-minute drill that led to Jason Sanders’ game-winning kick, Tagovailoa’s methodical and precise execution wasn’t thrilling, but he got the offense into position to secure the win. It’s worth noting that Tagovailoa's 338 yards through the air led the entire league.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: 239 receiving yards 

That’s how much of their Week 1 receiving output Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle were responsible for. The Dolphins rely more on the symphony between a quarterback and his top two receivers than any offense in the league. Last season, they were the only team not to throw a touchdown to their tight end and nothing from the game plan Sunday created the impression that Jonnu Smith was going to interrupt that flow.

Raheem Mostert will miss Thursday night while he nurses a chest injury. De’Von Achane finished third in receiving but will be a game-time decision because of a balky ankle. Meanwhile, rookie tailback Jaylen Wright didn’t receive a touch against Jacksonville. It’s beginning to look like the Fins will once again live or die by Hill and Waddle.

Jevon Holland: 5th career forced fumble

Fourth-year safety Jevon Holland began his contract year with a bang. Late in the third quarter, Holland initiated a 14-point swing punching out the fifth forced fumble of his young career by punching the ball out of Jaguars running back Travis Etienne’s grip before he could cross the goal line. A few plays later, the offense capitalized when Tua sent Tyreek to the bank for six.

Holland is an expert at pickpocketing ball carriers. Sharing the field with a historically fumble-prone Josh Allen, who is playing with a glove over his injured left hand, Holland’s penchant for creating turnovers is a potential defensive X-factor for Miami. If Allen finds himself in savior mode within the vicinity of Holland he could be ripe for the picking. 

Dolphins defense: Zero second-half points

Tyreek Hill and Tagovailoa get all the praise, but Anthony Weaver’s defense pitched a shutout in the final two frames They were saved by Holland’s Peanut Punch at the tail end of the Jags' only positive drive of the second half, but excluding that chunk, Jacksonville generated a meager total of 10 yards on their other five possessions of the second half. That is astounding and may also be a product of Jacksonville’s second-half woes in the Doug Pederson era, but it goes to show that the Dolphins' defense can still be formidable when in sync.

Dolphins defense: 128 rushing yards allowed

On the flip side, Miami’s ground defense is a significant cause for concern. Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne gave the Dolphins' defensive front seven fits in their first post-Christian Wilkins matchup. Whereas the Dolphins rushing attack struggled to rev up, Jacksonville pierced through the Miami D to the tune of 128 yards in 26 carries. That should be troubling, heading into a clash with the Buffalo Bills. 

Last season, Joe Brady revamped the Bills offense through its ground game and behind one of the league's best run-blocking offensive lines to ease the pressure on Allen to produce big plays with his arm or legs every snap. Arizona didn’t see the version of the Bills that broke through in the second half of the 2023 season, but if they get comfortable bullying the Fins in the trenches on national TV, the same blueprint as last season will get blasted out.