5 most overrated NFL Draft prospects expected to go in Round 1

Each of these projected NFL Draft first round picks could get the GM that selects them fired.

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) reacts during the
Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) reacts during the / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
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Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy celebrates after the 34-13 win over Washington to win the
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy celebrates after the 34-13 win over Washington to win the / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

1. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Drinks will always be free for J.J. McCarthy in Ann Arbor after winning a National Title at Michigan. That success has boosted his draft stock considerably. He entered the year as a Day 3 prospect but many mocks have him squarely in the middle of Round 1 as the NFL Scouting Combine looms.

McCarthy deserves credit for operating his college offense with high efficiency but not many of those concepts project comfortably to what he'll need to accomplish in the NFL. He does have good quickness and mobility but his lack of size means he will need to pick his spots on Sundays. He's an even more profound injury risk than Daniels.

It's also unclear how McCarthy will adjust to throwing the ball from the pocket. His down the field throws were inconsistent at Michigan. He played well on the big stage but some of his repetitions against inferior competition were not as impressive. Teams taking him with the expectation that he can play meaningful snaps a a rookie may be sorely disappointed.

Unlike Daniels, McCarthy does not profile comfortably as a first-rounder. His skillset is better suited to be a backup who might develop into a starter after a season or two of pro coaching. Round 2 would be a solid landing spot for McCarthy but he's going to hear his name called on Day One barring some sort of health concern. He's the sort of quarterback prospect who can get a general manager fired by taking him too early. Quarterback-needy teams should move up to land one of the top three quarterback prospects instead of settling on McCarthy in the middle of Round 1, or earlier.

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