5 NBA Draft prospects who need strong March Madness to silence doubts

The 2024 NBA Draft is defined by doubt. There is usually some measure of certainty at the top of draft boards. A relative consensus. That is not the case this year. We don't know who the No. 1 pick will be, much less which prospects are firmly entrenched in the first round.

That is especially true for the college ranks. Several of the most stable top-level prospects — at least in terms of coverage on draft boards and mocks — are either international (Nikola Topic, Alex Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher) or domestic G League players (Matas Buzelis, Ron Holland). For all the attention paid to college basketball, few prospects at that level have thoroughly, unambiguously won over the scouting community.

From the lottery range all the way through projected second-round picks or undrafted free agents, there are prospects that still need to prove their value and silence doubts on the March Madness stage. This is the last chance for aspiring 2024 draftees to make their case to the jury, so the speak.

Here are five prospects in particular who need to show out.

5. Can Duke's Tyrese Proctor finally shine on the biggest stage?

Tyrese Proctor returned to Duke for his sophomore season to a wave of expectation. He was supposed to break out, taking charge of the Blue Devils' offense and cementing his claim for a lottery pick in 2024. Well, now he needs to convince scouts that he is worth a second-round pick, lest he face a third season in the college ranks.

There's a lot to like about Proctor, who brings excellent positional size to the point guard position at 6-foot-6. He's one of the sharpest playmakers on the board, seldom coughing up the rock (3.8 assists to 1.3 turnovers). Proctor can pass with either hand, generally reading the defense several steps in advance.

Where he runs into problems is scoring. Proctor is a good-not-great shooter off the catch. He has the ball-handling creativity to manipulate defenders and create angles, but he doesn't have the burst to consistently get all the way to the rim. Proctor's mid-range game doesn't extend out to the 3-point line. If he's not firing off the catch, he's generally looking for a shot closer to the rim. When faced with length in traffic, Proctor seldom has the vertical pop to compensate.

At his core, Proctor simply has not been aggressive enough. He was supposed to take a step forward as a sophomore. His growth has been marginal at best. He's averaging 10.5 points on .441/.365/.761 splits. NBA front offices wanted more. If Proctor can kick it up a notch in March, he's going to really help his case. The opposite, however, could cement his return to Durham for a third go-around.

4. South Carolina's Collin Murray-Boyles can calcify his NBA stock in March

South Carolina freshman Collin Murray-Boyles has a ton of positive momentum entering the tournament. He told reporters that he would return to school for a second season following the Gamecocks' SEC elimination, but money talks. If Murray-Boyles continues to elevate his stock, he's going to have trouble justifying another season in Columbia.

That said, there are skeptics. Murray-Boyles' game is wholly unique. The more singular a player's skill set — the more outside the box it is — the more polarizing his draft stock. At 6-foot-7, Murray-Boyles is for all intents and purposes a big. At least on offense. He shoots no 3s. Not a few 3s, not a low volume, zero. Murray-Boyles does his scoring around the rim, offsetting his lack of size with strong takes and precise footwork.

That is an admittedly tough sell, especially if Murray-Boyles is going to come off the board in the lottery, or the top-20 as some more favorable draft experts believe. CMB's skill set is robust. He's a tremendous passer, whether it's locating cutters on the short roll or operating as a playmaking hub on the elbow. He's comfortable putting his shoulder down, collapsing the defense, and rifling a pass to the open shooter.

On defense, Murray-Boyles should be able to make even the most staunchly opposed scouts forget about the offensive concerns for a moment. He's built strong, cloaking ball-handlers with the ferocity of a black hole. Murray-Boyles can mirror guards on the perimeter, stonewall wings trying to drive the lane, or muscle up bigs in the post. He is a legitimate small-ball five on defense, which should make the offense at least tenable.

If CMB can lead the Gamecocks on a run, his stock is going to soar. If he doesn't — if the shooting issues crop up and South Carolina gets wiped out early — maybe he does follow through on that second-year promise.

3. Zach Edey has one last chance to take Purdue to the promised land

Zach Edey has been the unrivaled best player in college basketball for two years running. What more could he possibly prove? Well, as you may remember, No. 1 seed Purdue lost to No. 16 seed Farleigh Dickinson last season. The second No. 1 seed to ever lose. Now, the Boilermakers enter March Madness as a No. 1 seed, despite a premature conference tournament exit that feels like a harbinger of doom.

Purdue needs to prove it's not a pretender — a regular-season powerhouse incapable of translating their best attributes to a more competitive environment. It starts and pretty much ends with Edey. The two-time National Player of the Year has to put the pieces together in the postseason. There is a lot of uncertainty about Edey's draft stock right now. Is he a first-round pick or a second-round pick, a situational big or a long-term starter? How teams view him could very well depend on what Purdue does with another golden opportunity to compete for the championship. If Edey squanders the opportunity, it's curtains.

The raw production is beyond reproach. Edey is averaging 24.4 points and 11.7 rebounds on 61.9 percent shooting. He's blocking 2.2 shots per game. But, projecting toward the next level, it's fair to wonder how Edey's skill set and physical profile translates. A couple decades ago, the dominant 7-foot-4, 300-pound post scorer would've been the No. 1 pick. In 2024? Offenses don't generally run through post-ups anymore. Force-feeding Edey on the block is not viable in the pros.

He has soft touch, decent passing vision, and the size to finish anything within arm's reach of the rim. That could be enough. Edey just needs to seal off defenders, score as a rim-runner, and inhale offensive rebounds. Then, the concerns shift to the defensive end. He will need to prove that he can defend in space and stay on the floor for extended stretches. Stamina is huge.

This is a great stage for Edey to address these concerns and prove his mettle. He's an incredible collegiate player. But, another postseason whimper would only magnify the skepticism in NBA circles.

2. Stephon Castle is UConn's X-factor in two-peat bid

Stephon Castle missed time early in the season with a meniscus injury, but he has been both productive and impactful when on the floor. The Huskies are the best team in college basketball and the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The fact that Castle has contributed at such a high level for a top-shelf program should generally endear him to NBA scouts. He's still a teenager. But, alas, Castle is a divisive prospect who sparks vociferous opinions on both sides of the divide.

The physical tools are plain as day. Castle is 6-foot-6, 215 pounds with long arms and broad shoulders. He can absorb contact on finishes at the rim and guard several positions on defense. His strength for a guard — whether he's a combo guard or more strictly a wing — is a major advantage. Castle has consistently been UConn's best perimeter stopper and there's no reason to believe his defense won't translate to the next level.

Where scouts get a little squirrelly is on offense. Castle is a physical driver who displays high-level passing ability and a real creativity on at-rim finishes. But, he's shooting 28.1 percent on 3s. So much of Castle's output is predicated on getting downhill and putting pressure on the rim. If defenses don't respect him beyond the 3-point line, how successful can he actually be?

It comes in waves. Castle will get hot on occasion, even flashing pull-up shooting in the mid-range that forces one to consider the obvious path to stardom. Until Castle can prove that he's more than a streaky shot-maker, however, defenses — especially smart NBA defenses — are going to sag off and pack the paint. That could prove problematic.

The tournament is a prime opportunity for Castle to exert a winning impact on a team primed for another deep run. If Castle is contributing at a high level into the Elite Eight, or the Final Four, or the title game, scouts will have little choice but to come around.

1. Kentucky's Rob Dillingham invites skepticism despite his prodigious output

I'm at the point where Rob Dillingham feels like a perfectly viable No. 1 pick candidate. He oozes more star power than anybody else in the 2024 draft class — that ineffable quality that typically defines our best players. In a draft class defined by limited upside, Dillingham looks the part of a full-blown offensive engine. He can create his own shot at will, pick apart the defense with high-level passes, or stretch defenses off-ball as a shooter.

The concerns start to trickle into the conversation with Dillingham's measurements. He is 6-foot-2 with a net-zero wingspan and he weighs 170 pounds soaking wet. The NBA is increasingly weary of small guards. Dillingham competes hard on defense and creates his share of positive events (1.1 steals), but NBA offenses will target him relentlessly. Dillingham doesn't have the strength to combat stronger guards, much less wings, at the next level.

On offense, Dillingham relies entirely on his touch and creativity. He's bursty, but he's not vertically explosive. It's reasonable to wonder how well Dillingham will actually fair when faced with NBA length. Can he get by on floaters and pull-ups? My general instinct is yes, but Dillingham will need to combat more physicality — more obstacles — than he does at Kentucky.

This is a chance for Dillingham to put those pervasive concerns to bed. A prolific March Madness run will put him in the No. 1 pick conversation. Dilly's stock feels slightly more volatile than his backcourt teammate Reed Sheppard, but that can still change. When Dillingham is rolling, few prospects can touch him. The on-ball shot creation, the playmaking vision, the confidence. It's thrilling to watch. But, if Dilly gets roughed up a bit and struggles around the basket, he's going to leave the door wide open for a decline in appreciation between now and draft night.