5 NFL pretenders that are one move away from making the postseason

I am not talking about Super Bowl contenders, but rather playoff pretenders. For example, do I think teams like the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Super Bowl contenders this season? No, but I think there is a very strong possibility that all three could qualify for the postseason in some capacity. Again, I am not talking about them. I am talking about The Other Guys.

These are the teams featuring the Allen Gambles and the Terry Hoitzes of the world, those who want you to have a great day at 9 a.m., as well as those who want to fly like peacocks. I mean, they can fly a little, which is why I am not fully crossing this handful of teams off from playoff contention altogether. Admittedly, a lot has to go right for them to get there, but I can kind of, sort of see it, man...

In my annual estimation, there are about eight teams who can win the Super Bowl (you know who you are), eight teams who are not sniffing the playoffs (you are so in denial about that, it is not even funny), and the other 16. The five I am about to touch on are firmly in quadrant three, teams who are probably not making the playoffs, but can if everything were to break right for them. If only they were so lucky.

Let's start with a team that hasn't won its division since I started my writing career a decade ago.

5. Indianapolis Colts

The definition of mid this year might be the Indianapolis Colts. I may like Shane Steichen as a head coach, but I do not trust Anthony Richardson as a franchise quarterback, Chris Ballard as a general manager or Jim Irsay as an owner. This is a team that is going to win somewhere between seven and 10 games, probably finishing in second or third place in the AFC South. Is it enough for the playoffs?

In addition to Richardson taking the NFL by storm, I feel that Ballard needs to get a savvy veteran on defense, preferably in the defensive backfield to make up the difference. Would a Patrick Peterson or a reunion with Stephon Gilmore suffice? I am skeptical, but an of-quality defense may be exactly what Richardson needs backing him up on the other side of the ball, allowing him to play as free as he can.

The Colts having a top-half or top-12 defense may get them to that 10-7-range to make the playoffs.

4. Las Vegas Raiders

Not going to lie, I really like the Las Vegas Raiders this year. I do not know if they will be any better than say a 10-7 team, but I think they are going to be fun as hell. With the Kansas City Chiefs slated to run away with the division again, somebody has to come in second place in the AFC West, right? My pick is the Raiders, as the Los Angeles Chargers are rebuilding and the Denver Broncos are terrible.

As far as the one move they need to do to take it to the top in the most Raiders way possible, they need to empower their starting quarterback right away and give that man some confidence. I am talking about going with either Gardner Minshew II or Aidan O'Connell right out of training camp, and never looking back. Both will push each other, but splitting first-team reps could unravel this team.

I can be convinced of other potential starting quarterback candidate, but let's pick a guy and ride!

3. Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings are my pick to finish in last place in the NFC North. To me, this is one of the more competitive divisions in football, as I see two, maybe even three teams making the playoffs, depending on how you view the Chicago Bears. While I am bullish on Chicago for this season, I cannot say the same for the Vikings' plans of having Sam Darnold start in favor of J.J. McCarthy.

I may feel differently than you in this, but starting Darnold feels like a colossal waste of time in Minneapolis. I would love to be proven wrong, but the sooner the Vikings hand the keys of the car to McCarthy, the sooner I can begin to think about Minnesota as a playoff-caliber team again. The big key for me is McCarthy is ultra-conservative as a quarterback, whereas Darnold is reckless as hell.

The Vikings could be an NFC Wild Card team this year, but only if McCarthy is the one driving the bus.

2. Arizona Cardinals

Consider me a bit premature. I am all in on the Arizona Cardinals going forward under their current regime. I have loved their last two NFL Drafts, mostly because general manager Monti Ossenfort looks to be damn good at his job. As the Jonathan Gannon head-coaching hire grows on me, I am starting to see a few moves happen over in the NFC West before it happens. It favors Arizona here.

While I do not see the San Francisco 49ers pulling back considerably this season, I am not entirely sure that the Los Angeles Rams are still a playoff team. I also am skeptical about the overall viability of the Seattle Seahawks under a new coaching staff. That is why if the Cardinals were smart about it, they would deal for a wide receiver before the trading deadline to try and make the playoffs a bit early.

This feels like a playoff team in 2025, but with the right offensive acquisition, they can be one in 2024.

1. Washington Commanders

I am not sure if any team is going worst-to-first this season, but I will say this. My pick to potentially do that in the NFC has to be the Washington Commanders. I do not trust the rest of the division, but I do trust the new regime in place in the nation's capital. Head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters will care about the offense, as will offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury going forward.

Since 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels is my pick to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, let's get him another wide receiver to throw the ball to opposite of Terry McLaurin. Washington is my favorite landing spot for Brandon Aiyuk for a reason. The Commanders are in the same conference as San Francisco, but Aiyuk knows Peters and was Daniels' teammate at Arizona State.

As an unbiased observer, I am giddy to see what an unencumbered Washington franchise looks like.