5 St. Louis Cardinals who definitely won’t be back if they miss the playoffs

Despite hovering around the .500 mark for much of the season and boasting a negative run differential, the St. Louis Cardinals made the decision to buy at this year's trade deadline.

The big move that John Mozeliak made saw the team acquire Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham in a three-team deal. That trade has aged pretty well, but the team has just a 14.5 percent chance to make it to the postseason according to FanGraphs as of this writing.

It's not impossible, but a lot would have to go right for the Cardinals to squeak in as a Wild Card team and even more would have to go right for them to win the NL Central. They've put together strong stretches at times this season, but with matchups against the Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Padres, and Yankees all coming this month, they need to start playing better baseball immediately.

Assuming the Cardinals don't go on an unlikely run and wind up missing the postseason for a second consecutive year, changes will have to be made. It's unlikely that any of these five individuals will be back with the team in 2025.

5) John Mozeliak's time has to run out eventually, right?

Wishful thinking to say he definitely won't be back? Perhaps. However, his time has to run out eventually, right?

Mozeliak has been in charge seemingly for decades now, and has had a ton of success. With that being said, though, this is a what have you done for me lately business, and Mozeliak hasn't fielded a team good enough to make a deep run for years now.

They're better than the 71-91 disaster that they were in 2023, but they haven't won a playoff game since 2020. They haven't won a playoff series since 2019. They haven't won an NL Pennant since 2013. The Cardinals are an organization that should expect to win at the highest level annually. If that's who they are, what's the justification for Mozeliak sticking around this long?

There's no denying that he put this team in a far better place to win this season than he did in 2023, but that's not saying much. He made a solid deal at the deadline, but Mozeliak refused to make an all-in kind of move that would lead to more success. Fedde and Pham are both solid, but are they major needle-movers? No.

It has to be time to shake things up eventually. Firing Oli Marmol won't change nearly enough for an organization that has underachieved for a half-decade now. Get a new primary decision-maker in the front office, especially if this team fails to make the playoffs again, and get this organization back on the winning track.

4) The Cardinals clearly don't view Ivan Herrera as an important future piece

Willson Contreras landing on the IL for as long as he did allowed Ivan Herrera to show that he could be a major piece now and in the future behind the plate. While Herrera has hit at a high level in the majors, his defense is so subpar to the point where he was DH'ing often before Contreras returned, and has been in the minors for over a month now.

Herrera hasn't exactly lit the world on fire offensively in the minors, but Pedro Pages, his replacement, has a .622 OPS at the MLB level this season. Despite the clear difference in offensive ability, the Cardinals seem to value Pages' glove over Herrera's bat. Whether that's right or wrong is up for others to debate, but that's the reality of the situation.

Contreras is locked in through the 2027 season with a club option for 2028. He's not leaving anytime soon. Perhaps he'll move away from behind the plate in the future, but that's not happening now, and even if it does, will the Cardinals trust Herrera to be his replacement?

The time to trade Herrera is now, while his value is somewhat high. Teams will like him for his bat and think he's good enough to stick behind the plate defensively. If the Cardinals don't view him as part of their future, holding him in AAA doesn't accomplish much. Trade him now while you can before you tank his value completely.

3) Brandon Crawford should not be on the Cardinals roster right now

The Cardinals have one of the oldest and worst benches in the majors. 38-year-old Matt Carpenter has been mostly fine in a reserve role this season, but 37-year-old Brandon Crawford has struggled mightily.

Crawford signed a one-year deal worth $2 million to play in a reserve role. While his defense is still solid and he's certainly helping Masyn Winn, Crawford does not look like a MLB-caliber hitter, and frankly, hasn't for years.

He is slashing .169/.263/.282 with one home run and four RBI in 28 games played and 80 plate appearances. He rarely sees the field, but when he does, he's a complete non-factor. He's old, isn't even a better defender than Winn, and provides nothing offensively. Why exactly is he here still? Do the Cardinals need his leadership?

An argument can and probably should be made that he should be gone now, and he'll almost certainly be gone over the offseason. His spot is an easy one to upgrade.

2) Tommy Pham will leave St. Louis again in the offseason

Tommy Pham played parts of his first five MLB seasons with the Cardinals before being dealt to the Tampa Bay Rays at the 2018 trade deadline. After Pham proceeded to play for six other teams, he'd return to St. Louis at this year's deadline.

The fit for Pham was obvious. The team needed to acquire someone who could help them against left-handed pitching, and Pham could do just that. His ability to play all three outfield positions was a nice bonus.

Pham has lived up to the billing thus far, hitting a grand slam in his return to St. Louis, and posting a .892 OPS in his first 11 games back with the team he started with. While he's undoubtedly been a great addition, there's no reason to believe it'll last past this season.

The Cardinals have Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Michael Siani, and Victor Scott II all locked in for the foreseeable future, and don't forget Jordan Walker in the minor leagues either. There's a good chance Pham receives a better offer to play elsewhere, and there's every reason to believe he'll take that chance and run.

1) Shawn Armstrong's Cardinals tenure will be short-lived

The Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham trade was the big one that the Cardinals made, but they executed a smaller one closer to the deadline, sending Dylan Carlson to the Rays in exchange for Shawn Armstrong. Trading Carlson was a given, as the addition of Pham completely phased him out. For Armstrong though? That's all Carlson was worth?

Armstrong was great for the Rays last season, posting a sub-1.50 ERA in 39 appearances, but this season did not go nearly as well for him.

The right-hander had a 5.40 ERA in 38 appearances with the Rays before the trade, and he has allowed an earned run in three of his first four outings with the Cardinals. Overall, he's given up four earned runs in six innings of work. His ability to work multiple innings can't be ignored, but Armstrong has not pitched very well in those outings.

Armstrong is set to hit free agency at the end of the year, and given his age and overall ineffectiveness this season, there's little reason for the Cardinals to bring him back.