5 teams that should take a chance on Michael Penix Jr. after stellar Pro Day

Michael Penix Jr. is widely regarded as QB5 in the upcoming NFL Draft. There appears to be some level of disconnect between Penix and the upper-echelon prospects at his position, largely due to concerns about the Washington QB's age — he turns 24 in May — and his injury history.

The sixth-year senior came up just shy of glory in his final collegiate season, with Washington's explosive offense faltering against Michigan in the National Championship Game. Penix was brilliant on the whole, however, accumulating 4,903 passing yards and 36 touchdowns across 15 games. Famous for his high-arcing downfield bombs, the southpaw certainly has the arm talent to thrive at the next level.

Where it gets tricky is Penix's lack of dynamism on the ground. He ran for eight total yards last season, doing his damage almost exclusively in the pocket. The unfortunate victim of two ACL tears during his initial four-year stint at Indiana, Penix is plagued by doubts about his mobility and durability. Those doubts were amplified when Penix refused to run at the NFL Combine.

Penix did his best to eliminate those concerns at Washington's Pro Day, where he ran a sub-4.6 in the 40-yard dash. According to ESPN, he also posted a 36.5-inch vertical leap and a 10.5-foot broad jump, both better than any other QB at the Combine. There is no denying Penix's confidence in his own athleticism.

"I'm a 4.4 guy, in my opinion," said Penix, h/t ESPN. "Some people had 4.46, some people had 4.5, but that's unofficial, so I'm good. I just showed I can run, so I feel good."

If Penix can, in fact, run as well as other QBs in the first round conversation, it gets more difficult to knock his obvious NFL-level traits. The strength and accuracy on deep balls, the poise in the pocket. It's really a matter of health, rather than ability.

Here are the NFL teams who should be circling Penix's name on draft boards.

5. Dolphins could cultivate Michael Penix as Tua Tagovailoa's successor

The Miami Dolphins once again fell short in the playoffs, increasing the level of concern about Tua Tagovailoa's viability on the postseason stage. He has mastered his timing within Mike McDaniel's offense, but when Tagovailoa is faced with elevated pressure or adversity, he tends to fall apart.

Tagovailoa notably enters the final year of his contract without an extension. The 2024 season could be put up or shut up time for the Alabama product. If the Dolphins fall flat again, it will be hard to justify backing up the Brink's truck to Tagovailoa's front door. He's a decidedly fine QB with limited arm strength and a troubling record in high-stakes matchups.

So, why not tentatively draft his replacement? Penix is the perfect Dolphins QB on paper, comfortable roping long passes down the sideline. He was the beneficiary of great WRs at Washington, and he would have the luxury of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Miami. His lack of consistency on intermediate passes is a mild concern, as the Dolphins' offense is all about precision. But, afforded at least a year of developmental work in McDaniel's offense, there's reason to believe that Penix can grow into it.

The Dolphins essentially install a big-play machine to light a fire under Tagovailoa. Worst case scenario, Miami is drafting an affordable backup with long-term appeal. At best, Penix can help guide the Dolphins' offense to the next level if Tagovailoa fizzes out.

4. Michael Penix can address the Rams' backup QB situation

The Los Angeles Rams expect Stetson Bennett IV back in the fold this offseason after the fourth-round pick missed his entire rookie campaign due to a personal matter. While that does provide a measure of clarity about the Rams' backup QB situation, there's no telling what Bennett offers at the NFL level. We haven't seen it yet.

Even if Bennett returns at 100 percent capacity, he is hardly a guaranteed NFL starter. Los Angeles needs to establish the Matthew Stafford succession plan. The 36-year-old could hang up his cleats at any moment, which would leave the Rams' offense in need of major reworking. Sean McVay is a brilliant coach, however, and it's an extremely favorable setup for developing QBs.

In Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Los Angeles has two of the NFL's most reliable pass-catchers. Both are crisp route-runners who can flip on the afterburners and explode for chunk gains. Stafford has built a career on bold throws and unabashed aggression. Penix operates in very much the same vein.

The Rams would essentially give themselves two established college stars to monitor as Stafford finishes out the final leg of his career. Penix has far more robust arm talent than Bennett, not to mention enough leadership qualities to bridge the "intangibles" gap. Bennett could throw a wrench in these plans by returning and outperforming expectations, but Los Angeles would be wise to consider the obvious alternative.

3. Seahawks can tab Michael Penix as the heir to Geno Smith

Penix has actually garnered comparisons to Geno Smith in the pre-draft process, so it's only natural to let Penix learn at the altar of the two-time reigning Pro Bowl QB. Smith enters the final year of his contract without an extension from the Seattle Seahawks, who have already declared (more or less, through their actions) that Smith is done as the starting QB after this season.

Mike Macdonald steps into the massive shoes left by Pete Carroll, replacing one of the NFL's oldest head coaches with one of its youngest. In an effort to spruce up the offense, Macdonald brought in Ryan Grubb as the new OC. Where was Grubb last season? Fulfilling the same role at the University of Washington.

That alone makes Seattle the "well, duh" candidate for Penix. He gets to stay in the same state, with the same coach he flourished under in college. The NFL is a different beast, of course, but so much of a prospect's success comes down to schematic fit, comfort, and opportunity. Penix would be the OC's favorite from day one. He knows the playbook, he knows the tendencies, and he knows the area. Penix a PNW staple, already a local fan favorite. Why not lean into it?

If Seattle didn't need a quarterback, fine. Sometimes destiny just doesn't work out. But the Seahawks do need a quarterback, and the table is set for Penix to feel right at home, right away. He would learn plenty from Smith in the interim while working toward his first start in 2025. On the whole, this is the best possible landing spot for Penix. Seattle isn't short on WR talent either.

2. Broncos can avoid costly trade up and draft Michael Penix

Whether the Denver Broncos land Michael Penix with the No. 12 pick or feel comfortable waiting until the second round, he's a logical choice compared to the excessive cost of moving from No. 12 into the top five. The Broncos' interest in J.J. McCarthy is well-documented, but frankly, moving heaven and earth to land such an unproven talent feels risky. Penix needed time to find his footing in college, but his resumé is far more impressive than that of McCarthy. Even without the championship ring.

Denver is currently expected to start the season with Jarrett Stidham under center. That's fine, but Stidham has career backup written all over him. A big show was made of Russell Wilson's final weeks with the team, but he was at least a passable starter last season. Stidham would immediately rank as one of the worst everyday QBs in the NFL. The Broncos would be foolish not to at least field some competition in training camp.

Penix has the arm talent and big-throw chops to win over Sean Payton. There isn't a better QB coach in the NFL than Payton when he actually has faith in the man under center. The Broncos have a lot of work to do on the supporting cast — starting with the WR room after trading Jerry Jeudy — but we saw Denver's offense come to life over the second half of last season. Penix would be in line for extensive practice reps and a chance to start day one.

If the Broncos are at all confident in Penix's medical outlook, this is a no-brainer. There are talented QBs at the top of the draft, but Denver would need to part with multiple future picks to land their desired prospect. It's probably smarter to hold on to their assets, or maybe even trade down to land Penix.

1. Vikings can replace Kirk Cousins with Michael Penix

The Minnesota Vikings shouldn't consider Sam Darnold the set-and-forget QB1. No rookie will immediately replicate Kirk Cousins' output, but the Vikings' offense is an extremely favorable proving ground for a young quarterback. Penix would have the luxury of starting his career with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson — not to mention Kevin O'Connell and his Shanahan--adjacent scheme.

Again, we circle back to the importance of circumstances when discussing prospect development. It's much easier to find success as the Vikings' QB than, for example, the Patriots' QB. Penix would have winning infrastructure around him and the chance to start on day one. He would need to win the job from Darnold in camp, but either way, Penix's long-term outlook would be rock solid. He would be the Vikings' QB of the future.

Minnesota has maneuvered around the draft board to acquire the No. 23 pick, in addition to the No. 11 pick. All signs point toward the Vikings attempting to trade up for Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, or J.J. McCarthy. That's a fine plan, but like the Broncos, Minnesota would be risking valuable assets to move up for a franchise cornerstone that could bomb. The track record for QBs near the top of the draft has been extremely shaky in recent years. It's much less risky to sit back, gamble on Penix at No. 23, and use their other assets to plug holes elsewhere.

The Vikings are the rare team built to win games with a rookie under center. Penix, for all his flaws, does provide an element of experience that his peers do not. Maybe his ceiling isn't as high as a result, but Penix endured multiple severe setbacks to finish runner-up in Heisman voting and reach this moment. That has to count for something. He would be a perfectly respectable pick for the Vikings.