A case for and against Bronny James staying in the NBA Draft
For reasons completely out of his control, Bronny James is the most polarizing prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft. He was a huge media draw at the Combine, where his measurements and scrimmage performances were analyzed with a fine-tooth comb. Never has a projected second-round pick kept the NBA fandom so enwrapped.
That is, of course, because his full name is LeBron James Jr. — yes, that LeBron James. You know the deal. When your father is the greatest basketball player of his generation, and maybe all-time, the eyeballs are going to follow. There is a lot of undeserved pressure on Bronny, who has done his best to distance himself from his father's spotlight in interviews.
Bronny wants to be evaluated based on his own merits, not his father. All signs point to LeBron sticking with the Los Angeles Lakers, whether Bronny is drafted there or not. If James Sr. won't follow his kid to another franchise, that does dull the appeal somewhat. Teams will need to judge Bronny as a player (and perhaps a financial draw in the G League), rather than hoping to court his father in free agency.
James' freshman season at USC was notoriously unimpressive. He averaged 4.8 points and 2.1 assists on .366/.267/.676 splits in 19.3 minutes. After a cardiac arrest kept Bronny off the floor early in the season, he could never quite build up a rhythm across 25 games. Now, his coach left for SMU and he entered the NBA Draft, as well as the transfer portal.
Still equipped with his college eligibility, Bronny has a difficult and consequential decision to make. The signs point toward James staying in the draft, but he can still return to college for another season — whether it's at USC or with another program.
What should Bronny do? That is the million(s) dollar question.
A case for Bronny James staying in the 2024 NBA Draft
Frankly, this decision comes down to James' personal preference above all else. He knows his game better than anybody. Does he want to return to school and showcase it in a more expansive role, or does he want to earn those same developmental reps in a team's G League program?
There is no guarantee that James gets drafted, but a strong Combine performance has landed the 19-year-old on a lot of plugged-in draft boards. He began the season as a projected first-round pick and he's absolutely an NBA-level athlete. The LeBron connection won't hurt, even if Bronny is not packaged with his father.
If he can earn serious commitment and interest from a pro team, there is no need to return to school. Even if he's preparing in the shadows, perhaps on a two-way contract, that is a totally viable developmental path. That allows James to get hands-on work with an NBA coaching staff. Scouts are always evaluating the G League and looking for potential marginal roster adds. Even if he doesn't stick with his first team, Bronny wouldn't be out of the NBA ecosystem.
He has a lot to prove at the pro level, but James' foundation is stronger than he gets credit for. He was an excellent defender throughout high school and at USC, capable of fighting over screens and staying glued to ball-handlers at the point of attack. His lateral quickness, vertical explosiveness (41-inch vertical at the Combine), and length (6-foot-7 wingspan) are a potent combination.
James is going to defend well at the next level. It's a matter of how much he can contribute offensively. He needs to hit 3s and tighten the screws on his handle. If James can meaningfully manipulate the defense off the dribble and create for teammates, that would assuage concerns about his lack of size (6-foot-2 without shoes). If he's shooting at least league average from deep, that gives him another avenue to impact on top of his defense.
The basketball I.Q. and physical tools have never really been in question. Age is another mark in Bronny's favor. He is a real prospect, despite the constant hum of contrarian opinions, and there is a totally viable NBA pathway laid out in front of him, even if it's a bit unconventional for such a high-profile name.
A case against Bronny James staying in the 2024 NBA Draft
This case is pretty simple. James is still shrouded in uncertainty after what can charitably be referred to as a subpar freshman season. He looked fine in Combine scrimmages and he shot well in drills, but there is a marked difference between hitting 3s in game action and lighting up the nets in an open gym.
Bronny shot 26.7 percent from deep at USC and displayed a concerning lack of touch on spot-up jumpers. Even the easy ones didn't fall, and his free throw percentage (67.6) does not exactly indicate untapped upside. The mechanics look picture perfect, but if it's not a mechanical flaw, it's a touch or confidence issue. That is not reassuring.
James is still a bit undersized for the off-guard role, too. Undersized non-playmakers who can't shoot are not a popular archetype in the league these days. Even if Bronny defends at a high level, it won't keep him on the floor without at least a workable jumper.
One talent evaluator told CBS Sports' Bill Reiter that James simply is not ready for the big leagues.
"No, he's not good enough. Maybe if he went back to college for another year or two. But now? Not an NBA player. Not even close."
That is going to be a commonly held position in league circles. As ESPN's Jonathon Givony illuminated, there are those around the NBA with deep-rooted, unshakable negative opinions about Bronny. Others are more open to the possibility of him as an NBA player. The true balance (or imbalance) of that spectrum could inform what the "correct" decision is.
James, if he does return to school, needs to pick a program. Is he going back to USC under new head coach Eric Musselman, who shepherded several NBA prospects at Arkansas? Or, will he look elsewhere? A popular hypothetical landing spot is Duquesne, where LeBron's former high school teammate Dru Joyce III is head coach. Going to a smaller school and embracing a more robust role could allow James to showcase elements of his skill set that were kept under wraps at USC.
If James wants to prove his mettle in game action against his peers, rather than jumping head first into NBA waters without the necessary preparation, a return to school is logical. It's not the only viable path, but it sure sounds safer than going to the league in such an unpolished state.
Final verdict
It truly does come down to Bronny's own opinion. He should follow his heart, and that is written with 100 percent sincerity.
The NBA ecosystem is more favorable than ever to developmental projects. The G League is a real league, with pro-level talent that is on display for NBA scouts every night. That is probably where Bronny starts his career if he stays in the draft. That is, again, completely viable.
If James wants to get a head start on learning the NBA landscape and working with pro coaches, great. Go for it. He shouldn't have any issue coming by endorsement deals and profiting off his performance, no matter where he's playing, if that is something he cares about.
On the other hand, if James wants to improve his draft stock and angle for a surefire selection, he would benefit from another year or two in school. James has all the tools to become a very impactful college star with time and a little practice. Whether he returns to a larger role at USC or looks elsewhere, plus defenders who process the game quickly and shoot 3s (in theory) tend to stand out eventually.
Bronny is a long way from reaching his ultimate goal of being an everyday NBA contributor, no matter which route he takes. The talented off-guard claims to style himself after Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Davion Mitchell. The former was a productive freshman who went straight to the draft; White and Mitchell spent multiple years in college before emerging as first-round picks. Maybe that should inform James' approach. Maybe it shouldn't.
Only time will tell.