A Chiefs-49ers trade to give Brandon Aiyuk the championships he wants

The San Francisco 49ers have been one of the most star-studded teams in the league for the past few seasons. The Niners sent nine players to the Pro Bowl for the 2023 season, and seven players earned All-Pro honors. Two players were unanimous first-team All-Pro selections, and it was the third consecutive year that San Francisco had multiple first-team selections.

With so many large contracts on their payroll, the 49ers have struggled to find the salary cap space to retain their homegrown talent this offseason. As a result, trade speculation has surrounded wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk for more than a year. San Francisco picked up the fifth-year option on Aiyuk's rookie contract, but the budding star has made it clear that he's looking for a contract extension, causing the trade rumors to reach an all-time high.

During an appearance on the "Nightcap" podcast, Aiyuk was asked where he believes he ranks among the league's wideouts.

"I'm worried about championships right now," Aiyuk said. "Championships. Championships. Championships. I ain't trying to get into who's number one and two and three and four and five."

Could the Chiefs pull off a trade for 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk?

At first glance, Aiyuk's comments make him seem like the ideal trade candidate for the Kansas City Chiefs. Aiyuk couldn't hope for a better offense than Andy Reid's scheme, and championships have become synonymous with Kansas City in the post-Tom Brady era. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have been starving for competent wide receivers ever since Tyreek Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins.

If Kansas City wants to have a shot at winning a third consecutive championship, general manager Brett Veach will have to bolster a receiving corps that led the league in dropped passes last season. Kansas City signed wide receiver Marquise Brown in free agency, but that one signing alone isn't enough to rejuvenate a passing attack that sputtered throughout the 2023 campaign.

Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has blossomed into one of the most reliable wide receivers in the league. He has progressively improved each year since he was selected with the No. 25 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. In 2023, he was named a second-team All-Pro after finishing the regular season with 1,342 receiving yards, despite the Niners attempting fewer passes than any other team in the league. If Aiyuk was inserted into a pass-happy offense, his statistical output would likely explode.

The Philadelphia Eagles acquired wide receiver A.J. Brown from the Tennessee Titans for the No. 18 and No. 101 overall picks during the 2019 NFL Draft. Like Aiyuk, Brown was previously stuck in a run-heavy offense that didn't make use of his skill set. While the Chiefs don't have a draft pick as valuable as the Eagles' No. 18 pick was, they do have seven selections in the 2024 NFL Draft, including the No. 32 overall pick.

The Chiefs' first- and second-round picks should be more than enough to get the trade done, but there are bigger issues that make the trade nearly impossible. San Francisco general manager John Lynch has been adamant that the Niners don't plan on trading Aiyuk. Even if Kansas City calls Lynch's bluff and convinces him to trade Aiyuk, the Chiefs would be left in a difficult spot.

The biggest obstacle for Kansas City would be the contract Aiyuk would demand after the trade. The wideout has made it clear that he wants to be compensated, and Spotrac estimates that Aiyuk's market value will earn him a four-year, $96 million contract with an average annual salary of $24 million per year. That deal would tie him in being the No. 5 highest-paid wideout in the NFL. 

That price tag is likely too high for the Chiefs. After all, remember that this is the same Chiefs team that didn't want to pay Tyreek Hill a similar salary. It's also the same team that recently had to trade cornerback L'Jarius Sneed because of salary cap restrictions. The Chiefs have $6.5 million in salary cap space, per OverTheCap.

Trading safety Justin Reid could be another option — the Niners need a safety and trading Reid would save the Chiefs $10 million in salary cap space. Trading a player to San Francisco isn't viable either, however. The 49ers' budget is even tighter than Chiefs' salary cap.

Regardless, it would be out of character for the Chiefs to give up their top two picks and pay a receiver over $20 million per year. In fact, it would be out of character for most great teams to operate that way.

San Francisco, on the other hand, has operated under the assumption that all that glitters must be gold. The 49ers haven't shied away from large investments, whether they came from lucrative contracts or franchise-altering draft trades. Lynch has built a juggernaut, but he has also developed a top-heavy roster.

The Niners have the league's highest-paid running back (Christian McCaffrey), defensive end (Nick Bosa), and fullback (Kyle Juszczyk). They also boast the second-highest-paid inside linebacker (Fred Warner), the third-highest-paid tight end (George Kittle) and left tackle (Trent Williams), and the seventh-highest-paid wide receiver (Deebo Samuel). So far, San Francisco has been fortunate enough to get away with the significant salaries since their starting quarterback, Brock Purdy, is still playing on the lowest rookie contract possible — his salary cap figure will be just $1 million in 2024.

For a team with so many big-money contracts, it's important to balance them out with high-value rookie contracts. The Niners haven't been able to do that partially due to their trade for quarterback Trey Lance in the 2021 NFL Draft. Because of that trade, the Niners haven't had a top-60 draft pick in the past two years. They struck gold with quarterback Purdy, but they've gotten minimal production out of their remaining selections.

“You’ve got to have those guys contribute,” Lynch said, “when you’ve got as many high-priced players as we have.”

After handing out some of the most lucrative contracts in the league, they've now gone around to ask for some of that money back. Some players, such as fullback Kyle Juszczyk, have been happy to take a pay cut to remain with the team. Others, like defensive tackle Arik Armstead, felt disrespected and left the team.

The Chiefs and the 49ers are both struggling to retain their talent, so it would be wise to fill their needs through April's draft. The 49ers have 11 selections in the 2024 NFL Draft, including the No. 31 overall pick. The Chiefs earned the privilege of selecting last — they will have their first of seven selections with the No. 32 overall pick.