Aaron Judge home run pace: Yankees star could break his own record already

All rise!

Aaron Judge is the closest thing to Barry Bonds that this generation has ever seen and it's truly a spectacle to watch. Just about every time the New York Yankees play, if the opposing team pitches to him, Judge hits a home run. There's a reason that the sportsbooks are consistently listing him at +180 or shorter odds to hit a home run every night.

After beginning the year horribly, everybody began to overlook Judge. But over the last 95 games, Judge has homered 45 times and no, that's not a typo. 45 big flies in 95 games while hitting near .400 and actively being pitched around.

So how many home runs could he finish the season with? Could he touch his single season American League home run record that he set in 2022?

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

How many home runs is Aaron Judge on pace for in 2024?

In 2022, Judge went on an incredible tear, chasing down the 61-year-old American League home run record that Roger Maris set in 1961. It took an incredible run for Judge to break the record. After the fact, nobody really thought that there was much of a chance that anybody would break this record for quite a long time.

But 2024 Aaron Judge has something to say about that.

After slugging two home runs against the Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon, Judge sits at 51 home runs this year. That puts him on pace to hit 63 home runs this year, one more than his record of 62 home runs.

Let's break this down a bit further to see how realistic it is.

First, the Yankees have 31 games left. If we look at Judge's season stats, we will find that he sees about 3.5 at-bats per game (455 at-bats divided by 128 games played). If we multiply that number by the 31 games left, we find that Judge should see anywhere between 100 and 120 at-bats, depending on how many times teams walk him.

Let's say Judge gets 110 more at-bats this year. He would need 12 home runs in those 110 at-bats, meaning a pace of a home run per 9.16 at-bats (110 at-bats divided by 12 home runs). On the season, this is Judge's pace, almost exactly.

In simpler terms, Judge would need to stay on the pace that he's currently on right now to break the record, which takes into account his horrible start to the season.

The last thing to note here, that can't be quantified, is how hot Judge is at the plate right now. Hot and cold streaks can't be found by any quantifiable method, but right now, Judge is blazing hot. This kind of streak is what makes breaking the record even more possible.

If he stays even close to as hot as he's been recently, we may be looking at Judge slugging an AL record 63 home runs this season.