Recent trends suggest Aaron Nola might be in for a rude awakening in NLDS Game 3

The Philadelphia Phillies made an interesting choice regarding their starting rotation ahead of their NLDS matchup against the New York Mets. Instead of using Aaron Nola, an established star, in Game 2 of the series, they opted to go with Cristopher Sanchez, a pitcher who had a strong regular season, but is far more unproven.

The reason behind this decision was quite simple. Sanchez had a dominant regular season pitching at Citizens Bank Park and was dreadful on the road. The move paid off for the Phillies. Sanchez allowed two runs in five solid innings, and the Phillies won a wild game to even the series. The series is now knotted up at a game apiece, and the Phillies have their veteran and longest-tenured player taking the ball on the road in what is expected to be a hostile environment.

Having Nola set to go in Game 3 of this series sounds good. He's pitched in all kinds of big games for the Phillies, and has obviously seen the Mets a ton throughout his career. There is one issue, though. It will be nine days since Nola last pitched once he takes the mound in Game 3.

The rest excuse isn't a good one for teams to use, but the long layoff could impact Nola's start on Tuesday based on his numbers in longer layoffs during the 2024 campaign.

Aaron Nola might be set up for failure in NLDS Game 3

The sample size is small, but in Nola's four starts of pitching on six or more days rest this season, the opposition has teed off, slashing .416/.466/.675 against him. Nola's ERA in those four starts on six or more days of rest is at 10.59 as he allowed 21 runs (20 earned) in 17.0 innings in those circumstances.

Nola's career ERA in six or more days of rest is at 4.09 in 29 starts, so he definitely isn't quite that bad, but his career ERA overall is 3.70. He's always been less effective on six or more days of rest, which bodes well for New York's chances.

As if the rest wasn't bad enough, the matchup could cause some problems for Nola. Sure, he's had some success against the Mets over the course of his career, and even threw a complete game shutout at Citi Field in the middle of May. That Mets team was not the same one as the team he's about to face, though.

Brett Baty, Joey Wendle, and Omar Narvaez were in that lineup - all three of these players are not on New York's NLDS roster. Wendle and Narvaez aren't even in the organization anymore. Francisco Lindor hadn't even made his transition to the leadoff spot yet. Jose Butto was the starting pitcher in that game - he's now a key reliever in the Mets bullpen. Again, a lot has changed.

Nola's most recent start against the Mets was in the middle of September at Citizens Bank Park and it did not go well. He allowed six runs in 4.1 innings of work in an 11-3 loss.

The Mets having recent success against Nola is nothing new. They've swung the bat fairly well against him, and have found ways to win games in which they face him and Zack Wheeler (as we saw in Game 1.)

It's entirely possible that Nola, an outstanding pitcher, overcomes these trends and pitches a great game. It wouldn't be shocking at all to see him, at the very least, give the Phillies a great chance to win. The Mets have to like their chances, though.