Overreaction Monday: How does Aaron Rodgers keep getting away with this?

Aaron Rodgers spent his summer jetting off to foreign lands, entertaining a vice presidential bid, and steadfastly creating distractions that were incredibly hypocritical in nature. After telling the New York Jets that the focus needs to be 100 percent on football, Rodgers spent most of his off time discussing non-football issues and creating unbearable narratives around his team.

Last season ended after just four plays for Rodgers. He has spent the year since working his way back from an Achilles injury on the wrong side of 40, which is no small feat. To his credit, Rodgers clearly worked extremely hard to get right. Had the Jets been a postseason team last season, we may have seen Rodgers back on the field in record time.

After sitting throughout the preseason, however, Rodgers will enter Week 1 as less of a known quantity than ever before. How can we know what to expect from a 41-year-old on the heels of an Achilles tear? Significant injuries are complicated enough for athletes in their prime. Rodgers is well past retirement age for the average football player.

Therefore, it's a bit shocking to see where Rodgers lands in the latest NFL QB rankings from The Athletic. In a poll of 50 NFL coaches and executives designed to come up with quarterback tiers, Rodgers landed in the second tier and No. 7 overall. He trails only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford.

A couple years ago, the reaction to this poll would have been the complete opposite. How is Rodgers so low? He's an all-time great? In 2024, however, it's fair to express some trepidation about Rodgers' high placement. Are we absolutely sure the 41-year-old is still a top-seven QB?

Aaron Rodgers probably isn't as good as his reputation suggests anymore

In terms of pure name value, of course Rodgers is top seven. He will go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever live, even with his myriad off-field quagmires. In terms of actual football value in the present day, though... it's not so cut and dry.

We are essentially in wait and see mode. Maybe Rodgers is back and better than ever, his surgically repaired Achilles operating at 100 percent capacity. But we can't know for sure. Achilles injuries tend to impact older players more severely. Moreover, Rodgers was already on a noticeable decline last time we saw him.

It's easy to forget that Rodgers' final campaign with the Green Bay Packers in 2022 was less than impressive. He still has his moments, as he surely will this season, but Rodgers' QBR plummeted to a career-low 41.3 — just one season removed from leading the NFL in that category.

QBR is not the world's most precise metric, but it generally maps out the arc of NFL quarterback performance in a given season fairly well. Rodgers ranked 26th in the league that season, narrowly edging out the likes of Russell Wilson, Mac Jones, and Davis Mills. Not the best company to keep.

Ranked ahead of Rodgers are names like Kenny Pickett, New Orleans Saints Andy Dalton, and Indianapolis Colts Matt Ryan. Yeesh.

In 2022, Rodgers tossed 12 interceptions, the second most of his career, and only his third time eclipsing double digits in a single campaign. His 26 touchdowns, while not unimpressive, tied the lowest mark of his career in a healthy season. There were pretty clear indications that Rodgers was on the downturn. One has to imagine such an injury and a year away from competitive football might expedite that decline.

Rodgers received 23 tier one votes from 50 ballots cast in this summer's QB poll, the fourth-most in the NFL. That feels wildly optimistic for somebody who has seemed less and less focused on football during his yearlong hiatus. That said, Rodgers also received votes in the third and fourth tier, so there are clearly some skeptics around the league.

One coach placing Rodgers in the third tier told The Athletic that Rodgers appeared "fragile" before his injury a year ago.

"You go back and watch those first four plays before he got hurt, he did not look good. He looks old. If they can’t protect him and they can’t run the football, it’ll be just what you saw late stages in Green Bay. He became ineffective. I’m looking at what he is, not who he is.”

Now, look, should we render judgement based on four plays? Of course not. When precipitated by his worst season to date, however, it's fair to start asking questions, especially now that Rodgers has been through an arduous recovery period.

I am personally skeptical that Rodgers is better than C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts, or Dak Prescott, the reigning MVP runner-up. Hell, is he even better than Jordan Love? Or fellow old man Achilles returner Kirk Cousins?

For the first time in a while, Rodgers will need to prove doubters wrong on the football field. Count me among the crowd in need of hard evidence.