Crowded AL West has an obvious favorite, stats suggest

The Texas Rangers started the season strong and the Seattle Mariners posted an August for the history books. However, in the race to capture the AL West title, it is the Houston Astros that seem to have the edge over their two division counterparts.

Houston Astros favorites to win AL West, forecasts suggest

Seattle and Houston start the month of September in a virtual tie for the division lead, with the Mariners holding a 76-57 mark, thanks in part to winning eight of their last 10 games, while Houston, winners of seven of the last 10, has a 77-58 record. Texas, meanwhile, is one game back at 75-58, cooling off from their hot start by going just 23-19 since the All-Star break. While that's still above .500, both Seattle and Houston have been on fire since the Midsummer Classic, with the Mariners going 31-13 and Houston posting a 27-17 mark.

All of that has led forecasters to tip the scale in favor of the Astros. According to thepostseason odds posted by FanGraphs, Houston has a 54.0 percent chance to capture the AL West title. Those same odds give Seattle a 31.8 percent chance while Texas comes in a distant third at 14.2 percent.

Baseball-Reference, meanwhile, has the race a little tighter, with Houston holding a 40.0 percent chance of winning the division. Seattle is right behind at 38.0 percent with Texas behind them at 20.0 percent.

Part of the reason for Houston's lead is their remaining strength of schedule. The Astros face both Texas and Seattle on the road for three-game series in September, and has a home series against Baltimore plus finishes the year in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. However, that's the toughest part of the slate for Houston, which has the 28th-toughest schedule remaining. Seattle's remaining schedule is the eighth-toughest while Texas comes in with the 15th-toughest.