Alex Bregman is scorching hot, which is a blessing and a curse for the Astros

As a Scott Boras client, it's not shocking that Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman went into this year, the final year of his current contract, without a long-term deal. Amid a slow start to the season, alongside the team's slow start, he was easily costing himself millions of dollars in his next contract.

Bregman's OPS to start this season (.555) was among the worst over any 25-game stretch in his career. Through May 12, he had a .201/.270/.264 slash-line (.534 OPS) with one home run and 13 RBI. An unlucky .229 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) could have been seen as a sign of a looming correction, but his deeper batted ball marks (barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity) were also down in line with that low BABIP.

Bregman's track record, and no injury to explain his struggles, kept hope alive for a turnaround. A proverbial "contract year" surge is at times a myth, but Bregman is a better hitter than he was for basically the first month and a half of the season.

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Alex Bregman's summer time surge puts Astros in a tough spot

Entering Monday's action, Bregman is up to a .260/.319/.435 slash-line (.734 OPS) with 17 home runs, 57 RBI for the season (wRC of +113, 112 OPS+). On the night of May 13 against the Oakland A's, he hit two home runs among three hits. That launched him into a surge that has not subsided.

As expected, Bregman's BABIP has corrected back toward average (and his career mark) during that run since March 13 (.291 over the span; .281 BABIP for his career).

Bregman has gotten hot at a good time, helping him re-establish himself as one of the top upcoming free agents available and the No. 1 third baseman who'll be on the market. His .754 OPS right now would be a career-worst for him, but that .857 mark since May 13 would be the third-best of his career over a full season.

As long as he carries this strong stretch through to the end of the season, Bregman is in line to cash in nicely. The Astros could be priced out, if they hesitate to do a longish deal with someone who will start said deal in his age-31 season. But Bregman is as much a core player as Jose Altuve is, and the Astros did a five-year deal with him that covers his age 35 through age 39 seasons.

The Astros were surely hoping Bregman would get it going at the plate after his slow start. But on the back end of his bat getting hotter, in line with summer temperatures, the cost and competition to keep him in free agency this offseason has gone up.