American League offensive statistical leaders at the All-Star break
By Joel Wagler
The American League seems to have three playoff spots accounted for by the Guardians, Yankees, and Orioles in the AL East. Six teams look to have a fighting chance for the three remaining slots.
Offensively, if the MVP vote was today, there are five viable candidates as these players dominate the statistical leaderboard.
American League Statistical Leaders at the All-Star break
STATS | FIRST | SECOND | THIRD |
|---|---|---|---|
HITS | B. WITT JR. - 125 | J. ALTUVE - 118 | J. DURAN - 113 |
DOUBLES | J. DURAN - 27 | B. WITT JR. - 25 | JJ BLEDAY - 25 |
TRIPLES | J. DURAN - 10 | B. WITT JR. - 9 | A. VOLPE - 7 |
HOME RUNS | A. JUDGE - 34 | G. HENDERSON - 28 | S. SANTANDER - 24 |
BATTING AVE | S. KWAN - .352 | B. WITT JR. - .323 | C. CORREA - .308 |
ON-BASE % | A. JUDGE - .433 | J. SOTO - .426 | S.KWAN - .407 |
SLUGGING % | A. JUDGE - .679 | R. DEVERS - .597 | G. HNEDERSON-.584 |
OPS | A. JUDGE - 1.112 | J. SOTO - .985 | R. DEVERS - .974 |
RBI | A. JUDGE - 85 | J. RAMIREZ - 77 | J. NAYLOR - 70 |
RUNS | G. HENDERSON - 78 | B. WITT JR. - 75 | J. SOTO - 75 |
STOLEN BASES | B. WITT JR. - 22 | J. DURAN - 22 | M. GARCIA - 21 |
WAR | A. JUDGE - 6.3 | G. HENDERSON - 6.1 | B. WITT JR. - 5.8 |
The surprise name that pops in a lot of categories the Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, and Bobby Witt Jr, have been in the MVP race nearly all season, but Duran has made a move based on a massive June.
At this point, it would take an awful second half, or an injury, to dislodge Judge from the frontrunner spot. He leads in all of the important power categories, and those types of players tend to get most of the recognition with votes. A recent exception, of course, being Salvador Perez, who set a record for catchers with a league leading 48, and led the majors with 121 RBI, yet finished seventh in the voting.
Judge, however, hasn't been as dominating in his career in the second half of seasons as he is in the first half. He's played in fewer games due to injuries and his averages tend to be lower in the second half.
Soto, on the other hand, ticks up in the second half on his average and percentage stats. Duran, Henderson, and Witt don't have as many years to put together such patterns, but Duran has been way better in the first half than the second so far in his career. Last year, his first full season in the majors, Henderson showed no discernable difference between his first and second half splits.
In Witt's first full season in 2022, he got a bit worse as the season progressed, but last season, he got markedly better. He's had a great first half this season so it will be an accomplishment to match that.
Predicting the AL MVP
Judge certainly looks to be the favorite at this point. Most sports books agree. Because of the propensity for voters to look at power first, Henderson is would probably be next in line, especially if he can match his stellar stats from April through June, as he did last year.
Witt is an interesting case because while he doesn't doesn't hit near as many long balls as the others on this list, if he can maintain his average and maybe win a batting title, and/or put up a 30 HR/50 SB season (just missed this in 2023 by one stolen base), and the Royals make a strong second-half run, then he could be a dark horse.
Duran is in a similar situation as Witt. He team would need to make a strong run and he'd have to win a major statistical category or two, not just doubles and triples to have a chance. He is currently sixth in WAR, but at 3.7 in WAR, he's significantly lower than the forerunners.
Soto has the bad luck to be on the same team as Judge, therefore, he'd probably need to see Judge take a big downturn.
It's Judge's award to lose, but there are some pretty good players trying to leapfrog him, based on the stats at the All-Star break.
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