An NFL Draft trade that gets the Broncos J.J. McCarthy and Brock Bowers

When Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton arrived at Mile High Stadium in 2023, he was not happy with what he found. Though the team won a Super Bowl championship during the 2015 NFL season, a mass exodus of veteran leadership led to the deterioration of their winning culture. There was optimism when new ownership hired Payton as their head coach in 2023, but the road to recovery was always bound to be a long one. As Payton continues to instill his vision in Denver, an infusion of youth seems to be on the horizon.

Last year, the Broncos spent a league-high $219.2 million on the first day of free agency with a focus on improving the running game, which is a vital part of Payton's offense. This year, the focus will likely surround the passing game. As Payton continues to build Denver's offensive personnel to fit his scheme, two key ingredients remain missing: a quarterback and a tight end.

Two prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft would fit Payton's scheme perfectly: Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. If the Broncos take an aggressive approach, and if the chips fall perfectly, Payton could walk away from the 2024 NFL Draft with both McCarthy and Bowers on his team.

Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy is a perfect fit for Sean Payton's scheme

Russell Wilson's ride with Broncos Country came to an end on Monday, which makes the quarterback position the most glaring need for Denver. Playing quarterback in Payton's offense is no easy task, however. The veteran head coach has struggled to find a quarterback capable of running his offense efficiently ever since quarterback Drew Brees retired following the 2020 NFL season.

Recent reports indicate that Payton is enamored with McCarthy, and for good reason: McCarthy is polished enough to handle the intricacies of Payton's offense.

Payton's offense cannot easily be pigeonholed into a single category; rather, it's a chameleon-like adaption of multiple football philosophies, tailored to exploit defenses with versatile and unpredictable concepts. His playbook is a living document, evolving from week to week, and such a diverse and dynamic system demands a quarterback who is capable of handling the constant adjustments.

San Francisco 49ers head coach Bill Walsh revolutionized offensive football when he implemented the West Coast Offense in the 1980s. The system finds beauty in simplicity and efficiency by utilizing a high volume of short passes that result in higher completion percentage and reduced risk.

Payton merged West Coast principles with other offensive concepts to create a hybrid system that continues to stress defenses today. Contrary to the traditional football adage, Payton's offense has used the passing game to set up the run. The system utilizes quick, high-percentage passing principles from the West Coast offense to spread defenses horizontally, which creates downhill running lanes by thinning out the box. The end result is a potent and balanced offensive attack.

However, the methodical, slow-burn nature of the scheme increases the number of plays per drive, which provides defenses with more opportunities to capitalize on mistakes. The quarterback operating a West Coast offense must be capable of processing the defense and throwing with precision, timing, and rhythm.

McCarthy, who capped off his collegiate career with a College Football Playoff National Championship, may just be the perfect fit for Payton's offense. Although the Wolverines' roster was built around a strong run game and dominant defense, the Michigan quarterback consistently showed the ability to navigate the pocket, protect the football, and throw with sound mechanics. To Payton, that's likely more important than the lack of gaudy statistics.

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers could be Sean Payton's next "joker"

Payton has blurred the traditional positional roles of offensive players by utilizing versatile running backs who can catch out of the backfield and tight ends who can block as well as they can run routes. Perhaps the most unique aspect of Payton's offenses has been the "joker" position. The joker role has been filled by a skill position player that could stress the defense with a multifaceted skillset. In the past, Payton's jokers have shown the ability to pass the ball, run a wide array of routes, and evade defenders in the run game. Payton's offenses have featured jokers like Marshall Faulk, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara, and Taysom Hill.

“The joker player for us is not a receiver,’’ Payton said last year. “It’s either a running back or a tight end with exceptional ball skills and then you can work matchups. We’ve had that at the running back spot, Reggie Bush was the joker, Darren Sproles and Alvin Kamara. Those were all unique players, not just in the running game, but they had passing game skill sets that allowed you to do multiple things.’’

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers could be Payton's next joker.

Bowers is one of the most gifted prospects in this year's draft class. The 6-foot-4 tight end compares favorably to 49ers tight end George Kittle, according to NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. Bowers has shown the ability to block in the running game. As a receiver, he can climb the ladder to catch the ball, and he is dynamic with the ball in his hands.

Payton has a history of extracting production from the tight end position. As offensive coordinator of the New York Giants in 2002, Payton helped rookie tight end Jeremy Shockey earn first-team All-Pro honors. Shockey later joined Payton in New Orleans, where he became an integral part of the dynamic offense that propelled the Saints to a Super Bowl championship.

Payton helped other tight ends find similar success. From 2011 to 2014, Payton turned Saints tight end Jimmy Graham into one of the most lethal weapons in the league. During that four-year span, Graham reeled in 355 receptions for 4,396 yards and 46 touchdowns. After Graham was traded to the Seattle Seahawks, Payton helped veteran tight end Benjamin Watson have a career-best season in his 12th year in the league.

"I’ve been lucky enough to — I’ve had [former Saints tight end Jeremy] Shockey, [former Cowboys tight end Jason] Witten, [former Saints tight end] Jimmy Graham," Payton said. "And I’m probably leaving out a few guys."

Can the Saints draft both McCarthy and Bowers?

Bowers has had volatile stock leading up to the draft, with some analysts projecting him to go as high as the fifth-overall pick and others projecting him to fall into the late-teens. Some teams may be scared away from drafting a tight end with a premium pick after the Atlanta Falcons failed to find success with tight end Kyle Pitts, who was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. If Bowers begins to fall through the cracks, Denver could have an opportunity to snatch him.

While McCarthy was expected to be a late first-round pick just a few weeks ago, public perception of McCarthy's draft stock has skyrocketed in recent weeks. McCarthy could be selected in the top ten picks and he is unlikely to fall past the top-half of the first round. That could complicate being able to select both the Michigan quarterback and Bowers.

The Broncos currently have just six selections in the 2024 NFL Draft. Their first selection is the No. 12 overall pick, which may be high enough to select McCarthy. If Bowers begins to slip into the late teens, the Broncos have a few options to trade back into the first round to select the dynamic tight end.

The Broncos don't have a second-round draft pick. They traded that selection to the Saints as part of the trade to acquire Payton. Their next selection is in the No. 76 overall pick in the third round — a pick that originally belonged to the Saints. After that, they don't pick again until the No. 122 overall pick in the fourth round, which they acquired from the Miami Dolphins as part of the trade for defensive end Bradley Chubb.

As a result, trading back into the first round would necessitate either trading a future first- and second-round pick, or trading a combination of players and draft picks. One feasible option is to trade wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and a future first-round pick. Jeudy, who has underperformed with Denver, was the subject of trade rumors prior to the trade deadline. Denver has plenty of other options at wide receiver, including Courtland Sutton, to be able to move on from Jeudy this offseason. Still, this year's draft class is deep at the receiver position, so it's unlikely that any team would be willing to part ways with a first-round pick in exchange for Jeudy.

More than likely, it would take a miracle for Denver to be able to select both McCarthy and Bowers. Otherwise, it would take a king's ransom to be able to select both prospects.

Sean Payton won 63 percent of his games during his tenure with the New Orleans Saints. In his sixteen seasons as head coach, the Saints had the best red zone touchdown percentage (61.7) in the league. On average, his teams ranked sixth in scoring offense — a far cry from the Broncos team he inherited, which was the worst scoring offense in the league in 2022, scoring just 16.9 points per game. In Payton's first season in Denver, the Broncos improved to the 20th-ranked scoring offense with an average of 21 points per game. Still, there's a lot of work to be done.

Adding McCarthy and Bowers would provide consistency and explosiveness to an offense that desperately needs it. McCarthy could help stabilize the Broncos' offense with consistency, rhythm, and timing on short passes. Bowers could help create explosive plays as Payton's next "joker." Together, the two additions would go a long way in fulfilling Payton's offensive vision.