The anatomy of an NBA Finals MVP

The Boston Celtics have taken a commanding 3-0 series lead against the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals. From here on out, every game is an elimination game for the Mavericks, but no team in NBA history has ever overcome a 3-0 series deficit. With the Celtics beyond likely to win the championship, the conversation has shifted to who will win the Bill Russell trophy for Finals MVP. With 55 years to pull from, this is the anatomy of a Finals MVP. 

The anatomy of a Finals MVP

The most important trait of a Finals MVP is to be on the right team. Since 1970, the second year of the award, every Finals MVP has come from the winning team. The lone exception was in 1969 when Jerry West won the award after the Lakers fell in seven games to the Boston Celtics. While West was the deserving Finals MVP in 1969, he averaged almost 10 points more than anyone else, led the series in total assists by 16, and posted the second-best field goal percentage in the series behind Wilt Chamberlain, who took 138 fewer shots, it probably felt odd handing the highest individual award to a player who had come up short. 

Outside of being on the winning team, the next most important box to check for a potential Finals MVP is to lead their team in scoring. 44 out of 55 Finals MVPs led their team in scoring, and that has only become more important in recent years. Between 1969 and 1982, seven of the 14 Finals MVPs failed to lead their team in scoring, but since then, it has only happened four times, with no player finishing lower than second on their team in scoring. 

If you’re not first, be second … in scoring

Even those second-place finishers were dangerously close to leading their team in scoring. In 1986 Larry Bird only averaged 1.8 fewer points than Kevin McHale, but he closed the gap with 9.5 assists per game to McHale’s 1.7. In 2004, Chauncy Billups averaged 0.4 points per game less than Richard Hamilton, but he averaged six fewer minutes per game and was far more efficient. In 2014, Kawhi Leonard, on far superior shooting efficiency, finished 0.2 points per game behind Tony Parker. 

The only time a Finals MVP wasn’t within two points of being their team’s leading scorer since 1986 was in 2015 when Andre Iguodala averaged 9.7 points fewer than Stephen Curry. While Iguodala did post far better shooting splits from the field (62 percent effective field goal percentage to Curry’s 54.5 percent), the difference in free throw shooting almost completely closed the gap (58.8 percent true shooting percentage compared to 58.5 percent). 

*Effective field goal percentage weights 3-pointers to represent points per field goal attempt, and true shooting incorporates free throws to weigh a player’s true point per shot attempt. Multiplying either figure by two will give you their point per shot. 

The average Finals MVP

In the most reductive sense, the Finals MVP has functionally become the points-per-game leader on the winning team award. However, that doesn’t mean the Finals MVP is just going to whoever is chucking the ball the most. Teams don’t make it to the Finals letting anybody shoot the ball, and teams certainly won’t win it if their highest scorer isn’t doing more than just getting shots up. 

Over 55 years, Finals MVPs have averaged 26.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game on a 54.1 percent effective field goal percentage. And since 1983, when scoring became the best indicator of winning the award, the Finals MVP has averaged 28.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on 53.2 percent effective field goal percentage. With these figures and benchmarks in mind, this is who should win the 2024 Finals MVP. 

Who will win the 2024 Finals MVP?

With a 3-0 series lead, the Boston Celtics are almost certain to produce the 2024 Finals MVP, and the current leader in the clubhouse is Jaylen Brown. Over three games, he is averaging 24.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game on 63.1 percent true shooting. While his scoring efficiency has been exceptional, Brown has also played strong defense. His 2.0 steals per game lead the Celtics, and he has provided some impressive weakside shot blocking for a wing. 

The next possible, although remote, candidate is Jayson Tatum. He is within spitting distance of Brown in points per game at 21.7, but his efficiency has been dire at 46.6 percent true shooting. However, he leads the Celtics in rebounds (8.7) and assists (7.3) per game by healthy margins. Unfortunately, Tatum’s advantage on the boards and in dimes doesn’t close the sizeable edge Brown holds in scoring. 

Jrue Holiday has received some niche support for Finals MVP due to his insane efficiency and incredible all-around performance. He’s averaging 15.7 points per game on 69.6 percent true shooting and has chipped in 7.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while helping turn Kyrie Irving into a bricklayer. However, his minuscule usage of 13.7 percent would be by far the lowest of any Finals MVP. Even Andre Iguodala managed an 18.7 percent usage in 2015, the current low for a Finals MVP since 1983. 

Realistically, the only way Jaylen Brown won’t win the Finals MVP is if the series is extended to at least a Game 5, Tatum and/or Holiday have monster games, and Brown struggles from the field. Should the efficiency and scoring gap be closed, Tatum’s lead in rebounding and passing could be enough to sway voters. And if both Brown and Tatum falter, Holiday’s efficiency could prove decisive. 

Regardless, the Celtics are unlikely to produce a Finals MVP who clears the standard statistical benchmarks of their predecessors, but that should be fine with them. This team was built to be a collective monster, and producing a sub-standard Finals MVP perfectly encapsulates their ethos. Barring something truly spectacular from the Mavericks, a Celtic will win the franchise’s seventh Finals MVP, and right now, Jaylen Brown is in pole position.