Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

After a few regular-field events on the PGA Tour, it's time to get back to the biggest events on the calendar as we head to Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational to make our picks and best bets for the week. It's another signature event and, the week before THE PLAYERS, we're going to see a loaded field with no cut in what should be a great tournament.

In terms of our recent PGA Tour expert picks, it's been absolutely ice cold. Outside of hitting a longshot on Nick Taylor in Phoenix, we've had an awful mix of bad luck, near misses, and frankly just some picks that were straight-up wrong. We're going to get right for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, though, a place where we have strong history and correlation along with a good profile for what succeeds at Bay Hill.

As our friends Jeremy and John from Wedding Crashers once told us, "Rule No. 76: No excuses, play like a champion." That's our motto as we get ready to dish out winners with our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and best bets for the week at Bay Hill.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Cognizant: 7-47-0, -8.63 Units (1-17 on outrights and longshots | -4.6 units at Cognizant) | One and Done Total for 2024: $1,394,462 (Sepp Straka at Cognizant, $0)

PGA Tour expert picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Jake Knapp (+450)

To say that Jake Knapp is on a heater would be putting it mildly. The PGA Tour rookie has a win and three Top 5 finishes in his last four starts. The one finish outside of the Top 5 was still a T28, showing that this kid has the goods. And his statistical profile backs that up. He's gaining 1.82 strokes tee-to-green over his last 16 rounds, a profile bested by only Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele in this field -- but he's also gaining 0.56 strokes putting over that span. Knapp is the goods as a ball-striker with great length off the tee too. That's the profile of a winner at the API, but these odds for a Top 10 are too juicy to look away from.

Outright Winner pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational (0.5 Units): Viktor Hovland (+1600)

Given the start to the year for Viktor Hovland, I fully understand why some might want to shy away from having the Norwegian on the betting card. He was T22 at The Sentry, T58 at Pebble Beach, and T19 at The Genesis. It's not the prettiest form. But one of the biggest issues was his approach play, which is normally a strength. And I'm betting on him rounding into form after he gained on approach in 3-of-4 rounds at The Genesis, especially with around-the-green play not being that crucial this week. He has a runner-up and T10 at the API in the past two years and I think he gets his first win at Bay Hill this week as the trends are there for him.

One and Done pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Jordan Spieth

I'm willing to take the risk this week when it comes to One and Done. Outside of The Masters, I don't see an obvious big-time event for Spieth and he has a pair of T4 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in his last two starts here. He also has popped already this year with a T3 at The Sentry and T6 in Phoenix. He was also relatively near the top of the leaderboard at The Genesis before being DQ'd for signing an incorrect scorecard. That's enough for me to bank on him showing up well at a place where he's had great history, especially with his driving look much better so far this season.

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Ludvig Åberg and Jordan Spieth to finish Top 20 at Arnold Palmer Invitational (+230)

We already covered why I like Spieth this week, so the Top 20 play feels like a safe floor as long as he doesn't have the bubble guts and sign a wrong scorecard again. That leaves us with Ludvig Åberg in this mini parlay and I love his fit here. Bay Hill demands ball strikers and Åberg has been striping it of late with 0.70 strokes gained on approach in addition to being one of the better drivers on the PGA Tour. After a T24 as an amateur here last year, I love for him to improve upon that and comfortably register a Top 20 this week.

Harris English and Rory McIlroy to finish Top 20 at Arnold Palmer Invitational (+273)

Rory McIlroy is an interesting case coming into this week, but I felt compelled to get him on the card. His ball striking has improved quite literally with each round so far in 2024, and that part of his game has given him a tremendous track record at the API. So having him here for merely a Top 20 feels more than doable this week. As for Harris English, though his approach play numbers have been middling at best, his driving has been great, as as his putting, as he's finished T17 in Phoenix and seventh at The Genesis in his past two starts. With a T2, T26 and T9 in his last three starts at the API, I love the number we can get with him and Rory parlayed together.

Tom Hoge to finish Top 20 at Arnold Palmer Invitational (+260)

Tom Hoge is just simply playing excellent golf right now. He hasn't finished worse than T28 in his last four starts, including three Top 20s and two Top 8s. His approach play has been stellar and fits Bay Hill to a tee as he ranks sixth on the PGA Tour this season in proximity from 200+ yards out, which is where he'll see quite a lot of shots this week. He has a T15 here back in 2020 and a T32 in 2022. But I like him in this current form to keep it up and register his second Top 20 at Bay Hill.

Longshot Pick to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational (0.1 Units): Sami Valimaki (+27000)

We remember Sami Valimaki competing for the win in Mexico with Jake Knapp, but the oddsmakers might not. He followed that up with a missed cut at the Cognizant Classic, but it was his short game that fell apart. Valimaki still gained ball striking, which he's done in nine straight PGA Tour rounds dating back to Phoenix and 11 of his last 12 rounds as well. That profile is way better than 270-1, so he takes the cake as the longshot play this week at the API.