Insider blames one offseason move for Astros disastrous start

Since 2017, the Astros have been inevitable. They've made the ALCS every year since, including winning two World Series. It's become the norm and it's expected that they will, at the very least, make the playoffs.

Of course, it wasn't exactly a clean run of greatness. But we aren't going to re-hash that today.

One of the reasons the Astros have been so great is that they've had consistency and good leadership from the dugout. The same core of players have been there for basically the entire run. You could always count on Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Justin Verlander to contribute. They were led by AJ Hinch to begin the run until he was let go and replaced by Dusty Baker.

Everything was running smoothly on the field, even if there was a lot of infighting in the front office. Former GM James Click and owner Jim Crane had their issues and even Baker was frustrated at times.

Despite all of that, they were still a powerhose. Then, over this past offseason, Dusty Baker left and is now a Special Advisor in San Francisco. Now, Houston is off to their worst start since 1969. They have the third worst record in baseball, only better than the Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox.

Is the loss of Dusty Baker the reason for the Astros struggles or is it a coincidence?

Dusty Baker is a legend and one of the all-time great managers. He's seventh all time in manager wins, a World Series winner and three-time Manager of the Year. There's no doubt that his retirement was a blow to Houston.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today said on Sunday that they are starting to miss Baker because of his "calming influence when times were rough..."

This could definitely be the case, but it's always hard to tell the full impact a manager has on a team. We aren't in the locker room, and we don't know the impact Joe Espada has on the team now. He's clearly not Dusty, and he might be getting more heat because he's a rookie manager following a legend.

While not discounting what was probably a pretty sizeable impact Baker had on the team, it's hard to know exactly what is being missed from the managers office. We don't have a way to calculate that with hard numbers. But, what we can calculate is what's the bigger reason for the Astros struggles. They aren't getting production from some of their biggest players.

It's no secret that Jose Abreu has been atrocious this season. He struggled in his first season with the Astros last year, but his numbers have plummeted even further. He signed a three-year, $58.5 million deal before what was his age 36 season, and posted a .680 OPS and 87 OPS+ as the starting first baseman, which is not the production you want from that position.

Through 21 games in 2024, the struggles have gotten even worse. He's hitting for absolutely no power, with just one double and zero home runs thus far. He's also not getting on base and is slashing .104/.164/.119 with a -15 OPS+. He's basically been unplayable, but the Astros have limited options and no real way to replace him right now. GM Dana Brown has commented on the situation, but they're going to keep rolling him out for now.

Abreu isn't the only everyday starter who is struggling, though.

Jose Abreu isn't the only Astros player struggling

Alex Bregman has posted a .586 OPS and has yet to homer. You don't exactly want a 59 OPS+ from the middle of the order, but Bregman doesn't have the age concerns that Abreu does and is still walking a ton. It seems more likely that Bregman will turn it around, but for now, he's not helping the team at all. For an upcoming free agent, he isn't exactly putting up an Aaron Judge walk year.

Maybe the biggest reason for the Astros poor start is the pitching injuries they've been dealing with. Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander have pitched well, but they have been dealing with injuries and have only made two starts each.

Their replacements, on the other hand, have struggled mightily. JP France was just optioned to Triple-A after having a 7.36 ERA in five starts. He isn't the only one, though. Hunter Brown, who was one of their top pitching prospects a year ago, has been walking the ballpark with a 6.1 BB/9. His 9.68 ERA isn't exactly pretty, either.

Spencer Arrighetti is a rookie who has a 10.97 ERA, but his strikeout numbers look good with a 12.7 K/9. It hasn't gone well for him, either, but maybe with more time to adjust to big league hitters he can adjust.

Astros need far more out of Josh Hader and the bullpen

By far the biggest disappointment has been the bullpen. Houston signed star closer Josh Hader to a massive five-year, $95 million contract in the offseason, but he has been bad to kick off his Astros career.

While his strikeout numbers remain impressive, he has a 8.83 ERA and only two saves through 11 appearances. He also has a 1.655 WHIP, which is not exactly what you want from a one inning closer. That being said, he has a 2.75 FIP and 3.28 xERA, so there will likely be positive adjustment at some point. Hader has been too good for too long, and maybe some early season adjustments to a new team and division are to blame.

He isn't the only star Astros reliever who has not pitched well. Ryan Pressly, their former closer, has a 7.45 ERA and 1.862 WHIP, but like Hader, his FIP is much lower than his ERA, and he might get right in the near future, too.

With all of this being said, it's clear that the struggles of the Astros aren't all on the back of Joe Espada after Dusty Baker's departure. In fact, their Pythagorean record is 11-19, so they're also getting unlucky. It's more so on the many players who have been scuffling early on in the season, rather than not having Dusty Baker. Would he have made some moves that Espada didn't? Sure, but that also comes with the growing pains of a rookie manager.

Luckily, Ronel Blanco has been outstanding and their top pitchers are on the way back. Will it be enough to turn the season around? Time will tell.