Astros, Mariners blockbuster trade option appears entirely off the table

With Major League Baseball approaching the trade deadline on July 30, the market is beginning to heat up. At this point, teams have to decide whether they want to dismantle their roster or acquire talent to make a postseason push.

The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros have been locked in a tight race for the American League West. While Seattle once held a comfortable lead, the Astros have closed the gap considerably after a hot streak over the past month.

The Mariners currently lead the AL West with a 52-43 record, while the Astros trail just two games behind with a 49-44 record. Both ball clubs are expected to bolster their rosters ahead of the trade deadline as the race for the division begins to heat up.

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vlad Guerrero Jr. has been named as a potential trade candidate for both the Astros and Mariners, but it's beginning to seem like neither team will be able to land him.

Astros and Mariners may not be able to land Vlad Guerrero Jr.

The Blue Jays want to keep Guerrero and he is open to staying with the team on a long-term deal, according to MLB reporter Mark Feinsand.

"I doubt a Vlad extension is coming anytime soon, but that's not to say he won't wind up signing one in the offseason," Feinsand wrote. "The Blue Jays insist they're not trading him, and some sources I have spoken to believe Toronto wants to keep him -- and that Vlad is open to staying there."

The 2024 MLB season has not gone how the Blue Jays had hoped. The ball club holds a 43-50 record, which places them last in the competitive American League East and positions them as obvious candidates to sell before the trade deadline. Toronto already began the process of tearing down their roster by placing veteran outfielder Kevin Kiermaier on revocable waivers.

Feinsand reported on Wednesday that the Blue Jays are open to moving players on expiring contracts but won't trade anyone under contract past the 2024 season.

The Astros and Mariners should still take a swing at landing Guerrero, especially since both teams desperately need help at first base. The Mariners haven't gotten much production out of Ty France, who has gone 14-for-87 (.161) with just one home run in his last 26 games. Meanwhile, the Astros have been named as a potential destination for Guerrero by MLB insider Jon Heyman.

Guerrero has the potential to turn into a long-term answer as a first baseman and has extraordinary ability at the plate.

Salary could play a role in whether or not the Blue Jays ultimately sign Guerrero to a long-term deal. The Blue Jays will likely attempt to shed salary to get below the $237 million first luxury tax threshold before the trade deadline. They are roughly $10 million over that figure.

"The only question will be the contract and whether the two sides can close the gap," Feinsand wrote. "Vlad hasn't been able to replicate his 2021 season, and if he's looking to get paid based on that year, it's going to be tough for Toronto (or any team) to justify that. A big second half and a monster 2025 season would give him a much better argument to be paid in the upper echelon of players in MLB."

Guerrero had his breakout season in 2021, slashing .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs, 111 RBIs, a 1.002 OPS, and a 6.3 WAR. He failed to replicate that magical campaign in the following seasons, however. Since the start of the 2022 season, Guerrero has slashed .269/.342/.462 with 71 home runs, 244 RBIs, and a .805 OPS.

Still, Guerrero has been productive through his six seasons in the majors. The four-time All-Star has won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, a Home Run Derby, and an All-Star Game MVP. This season, he has compiled 13 home runs and 53 RBIs with a line of .287/.361/.448.