AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

The year of the longshot carries on for the PGA Tour. As we head into the second signature event of the 2024 season with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the shortest odds we've had for any winner in the four events so far this year was 140/1, which was Matthieu Pavon last week. So are we looking for another deep cut for the week at Pebble Beach Golf Links?

While not being in on the longshot trend has not been profitable personally, I'm willing to bet this starts to change and I think this is the perfect week for that. Wind and rain are heavily in the forecast for this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and, with only a 79-player field and no cut, the conditions and a golf course that tests players in ideal weather should separate the best in the world from the rest.

We did cash one bet last week with Will Zalatoris comfortably inside the Top 40, but we were bad as our Top 10 and outright picks missed the cut and as Luke List faded on the weekend to cost us a juicy Top 40 parlay. Thanks for nothing there.

It's onto Pebble Beach, though, as we make our PGA Tour expert picks for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with all of our picks and bests bets.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Farmers Insurance Open: 4-20-0, -9.33 Units (0-8 on outrights and longshots | -2.25 Units at Farmers) | One and Done Total for 2024: $1,077,345.00 (Luke List at Farmers, $21,990)

PGA Tour expert picks for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Thomas (+230)

Justin Thomas, quite simply, looks like he's back to being JT. Yes, that could always lead to some frustrations on the greens, especially with this finicky poa annua, but I'm willing to be on the game here. But the putter has been better of late, gaining 0.53 strokes on the greens over his last 12 rounds and more than 2.0 strokes with his tee-to-green play. His combination of approach and around-the-green play could be huge, especially with a squirrely driver not necessarily always in play. For a Top 10, I think he shows up this week.

Outright Winner pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (0.5 Units): Max Homa (+1800, BetMGM)

Max Homa and winning on the California swing -- name a better duo? But you have to love what you're seeing from Homa coming into this week. He was Top 15 at The Sentry and fought for a Top 15 last week as well. Homa is also a player who has simply proven he's like an ATV in terms of dealing with conditions in that he's made for them. Gaining 2.08 strokes tee-to-green over his last two tournaments and with three T14 or better finishes at this tournament, Homa has leveled up and will get the win this week.

One and Done pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Max Homa

Everything that was just said about Homa, copy and paste it here for the One and Done play this week. I think he's elevated his floor substantially, even in this strong fields, and obviously believe he has the upside to win at Pebble. That feels like a great One and Done play.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Rory McIlroy to finish Top 5 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+200)

We haven't seen Rory McIlroy yet on the PGA Tour this season, but he has been playing overseas. While the field strength was nothing in compariosn to this one, he finished second and won in two events he played in Dubai. It should be a huge year for McIlroy, especially at a place like this that should highlight his extremely improved short wedge game. Getting +200 for a Top 5 finish feels like a no-brainer for Rory in this form, so let's take McIlroy to get off to a hot start on the PGA Tour in 2024.

Viktor Hovland and J.T. Poston to finish Top 20, Beau Hossler to finish Top 40 at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Parlay (+444, DraftKings)

We're digging deep for this one, but I love it. Viktor Hovland for a Top 20 makes a ton of sense. He won his US Amateur at Pebble Beach and finished T13 here last year. With his ball-striking prowess and improved around-the-green game, I think he can come up with a decent finish. J.T. Poston, meanwhile, has been on my radar throughout January and why not? He hasn't finished worse than T11 in three starts so far and his short game should serve him well here, especially if he gets hot on approach, which we've seen this year. As for Beau Hossler, we only need a Top 40 from a player who has back-to-back Top 11 finishes at Pebble and finished T6 gaining more than a stroke on approach and on the greens last week. This is cheeky, but could pay off hugely.

Kevin Yu to finish Top 20 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+280

Sleep on Kevin Yu if you dare, but he's a ball-striker by trade and he's trending in a big way. We saw him hold the first round lead last week but he still finished strong at T6. He also finished T7 at Pebble Beach last year. When you look at a guy who has been getting hot with the putter, which is his weakness, on the California swing while gaining 1.93 strokes tee-to-green, his fit here should be perfect.

Longshot to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (0.1 Units): Keith Mitchell (+11000)

It's been an uneven start to 2024 for Keith Mitchell with a T30, T9 and missed cut on his ledger. He's striking the hell out of the ball right now, though, gaining 2.03 strokes tee-to-green over those last 10 rounds of action. Moreover, he's been hot at late when playing at Pebble, finishg T12 and T4 in his last two starts. At 110/1, I'll take a small flier on Mitchell to pop up and continue the year of the longshot.