Bears vs. Colts: Odds, predictions, stats and betting trends for Week 3

From a distance, the first two weeks of the NFL season have gone about how most people expected they would for the Chicago Bears. The team is 1-1, with a win at home over the Tennessee Titans and a loss in Houston to the Texans. In other words, no surprise, as the Titans were projected to be on the outside looking in on the playoff picture this year, and the Texans entered the season as favorites in the AFC South and one of the few teams with a reasonable hope of preventing a Chiefs three-peat.

Inspect the Bears more closely though, and things haven't gone exactly the way that fans envisioned they would while they anxiously awaited the start of the season. The defense has been even better than advertised — a fast, tough, ball-hawking unit that crushed Will Levis and held CJ Stroud in check. The offense, however, has been flatter than an Italian beef sandwich in a panini press.

Caleb Williams hasn't been able to get comfortable behind a leaky offensive line and it shows. The running game has been inept, as well, with D'Andre Swift sitting at just two yards per carry. This may be a chance to have a get-right game, though, because the Colts defense has been manhandled by both the Texans and the Packers through two weeks.

Bears vs. Colts: What you need to know

Now that the Texans are out of the way, the Bears are entering a friendly stretch of the schedule that includes home games against the Rams, Panthers and Patriots, a game against the Jaguars in jolly old England, and a road date with the Commanders. Stacking up wins in the next two months is imperative, as the Bears' schedule is backloaded with division games and contenders.

As badly as the Bears could use a win to move to 2-1, the Colts are even more desperate after starting the season 0-2. Anthony Richardson and the offense hit some big plays in Week 1, but have been unable to consistently move the chains. As mentioned above, the defense has been out-physicaled in both games, but watching tape of the Bears, who have been unable to block anyone or get in any kind of offensive rhythm at all, has to be encouraging to Shane Steichen and his staff. The Colts have been competitive in losing one-score games both weeks and will absolutely come into this one thinking that they can win. This game feels like a true toss-up.

How to watch Bears vs. Colts live

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 22
• Time: 1:00 pm Eastern
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium
• City: Indianapolis, IN
• TV/Streaming: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV, NFL+

Latest game odds for Bears vs. Colts in Week 3

The latest odds as of Friday, Sept. 20 via FanDuel:

• Money line: Bears (+108), Colts (-126)
• Spread: Bears +1.5 (-110), Colts -1.5 (-110)
• Total: Over 43.5 (-108), Under 43.5 (-112)

Bears vs. Colts team stats and betting trends

• The Bears are 2-0 against the spread this season, while the Colts are 1-1.
• The under has hit in both Bears games, while the Colts went over in Week 1 but under in Week 2
• The Bears' longest play from scrimmage this year is a 27-yard completion to Rome Odunze last week. The Colts have five plays that have gone for more yardage, with the longest being Alec Pierce's 60-yard touchdown catch in the first quarter of Week 1.
• Through two weeks, only Gardner Minshew of the Raiders has been sacked as many times as Caleb Williams (nine). Anthony Richardson has been sacked three times.
• Of all quarterbacks that started in Week 1 and Week 2, Bryce Young of the Panthers is the only one with fewer passing yards than Caleb Williams. He was benched this week in favor of former Bear Andy Dalton.
• The Bears have a +1 turnover margin on the year, while the Colts are -2.
• The Colts won the last two times these teams met, with the most recent being a 19-11 victory in Chicago in 2020.
• Since the Colts relocated to Indianapolis in 1984, both the Colts and Bears have made the Super Bowl twice, with each team sporting a 1-1 record. Indy's lone Super Bowl win came at the expense of the Bears in 2007 by a score of 29-17.

Player news and injuries

The Colts are in a much better spot health-wise than the Bears. Receiver Josh Downs is expected to make his regular season debut after spraining his ankle in training camp, while Laiatu Latu, the first defensive player taken in the draft, returned to practice Friday as he fights through a hip injury. Placekicker Matt Gay also returned to practice on Thursday after missing Wednesday with a quad injury.

For the Bears, Keenan Allen has been absent from practice all week after missing the Texans game, making it increasingly likely that he'll be out for the second week in a row. Rome Odunze has practiced in a limited fashion as he deals with the MCL sprain he suffered in Week 1, but he played nearly every snap against the Texans and is expected to suit up once again on Sunday.

Teven Jenkins appears to be OK after missing practice Wednesday with a thigh contusion. He returned Thursday and is expected to play. Third-round offensive lineman Kiran Amegadjie has been out with a quad injury, but he was a full participant in practice Thursday and could see his first regular season snaps if the Bears choose to shake up their underwhelming offensive line.

Khari Blasingame is expected to miss more time with his knee injury, though Montez Sweat, DeMarcus Walker, Andrew Billings and Travis Homer are expected to play after getting in limited practice sessions this week.

Lastly, Zacch Pickens has been absent from practice after being forced out of the Texans game with a groin injury.

Game prediction

This week, we've detailed ways for the Bears to get Caleb Williams and the offense going. We've also looked at some of the most important matchups that will decide the game against the Colts. The Bears didn't enter this season thinking that they would be relying on their defense to carry the team to victory, but through two weeks, that's the way it's been. Still, despite Caleb Williams' slow start and the offensive line's atrociousness, I'd rather have the team with a defense that can make plays and not give up 150 yards on the ground. The Colts haven't shown that they can stop anybody, so this looks like the week that Caleb and the offense begin to figure things out.

Anthony Richardson is capable of making the occasional electrifying play, but the Bears' secondary is too good to allow that to happen with any frequency. Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson will take advantage of Richardson's accuracy issues, the Bears' front seven will bottle up Jonathan Taylor, and the offense will finally string together some drives as Caleb gets his first and second career touchdown pass. Our prediction: Bears 27, Colts 16.