Big 12 Championship Game scenarios after Oklahoma State upset, Oklahoma win

In the final year of the Big 12 that we've come to know and love, it's only natural that the conference that has been an agent of chaos in college football for some time now. And in Week 11, we got plenty of it.

On the heels of their huge win over the Oklahoma Sooners in Bedlam last week, Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State Cowboys followed that up by laying a total egg on the road against UCF in a blowout upset loss. Only adding to that chaos, though, Kansas lost to Texas Tech after QB Jason Bean went out due to injury, further throwing the Big 12 standings into a frenzy.

The Texas Longhorns remain atop the conference after staving off a TCU comeback in Week 11, and the Longhorns are the conference's only real shot at sending a team to the College Football Playoff. As for which two teams end up playing in the Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington, though, that has yet to be determined.

So what scenarios are still in play? Let's take a look at the standings and the teams vying for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Big 12 standings after Week 11

1. Texas Longhorns 9-1 (6-1)
2. Oklahoma State Cowboys 7-3 (5-2)
3. Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 (5-2)
4. Iowa State Cyclones 6-4 (5-2)
5. Kansas State Wildcats 7-3 (5-2)
6. West Virginia Mountaineers 6-4 (4-3)
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders 5-5 (4-3)
8. Kansas Jayhawks 7-3 (4-3)
9. TCU Horned Frogs 4-6 (2-5)
10. BYU Cougars 5-5 (2-5)
11. Houston Cougars 4-6 (2-5)
12. Baylor Bears 3-7 (2-5)
13. UCF Knights 5-5 (2-5)
14. Cincinnati Bearcats 3-7 (1-6)

So with the standings getting even more bunched up and more confusing now, let's take a look at the Big 12 Championship Game scenarios at play over the final two weeks of the regular season. With five teams with two losses or fewer in conference play, we'll focus on what those teams need.

Big 12 Championship Game scenarios after Week 11

As they have been for a couple of weeks now, Texas remains in the driver's seat ast the only one-loss team in the conference right now. Because of the head-to-head loss to Oklahoma, though, the Longhorns have no margin for error assuming everyone else wins out and must win their final two games at Iowa State and in Austin against Texas Tech to secure their spot in the Big 12 title game.

Despite the loss to UCF in demoralizing fashion in Week 11, Oklahoma State is still the No. 2 team in the conference right now and would meet Texas in Arlington if the season ended today. If the Cowboys win out, they should hold that. They have head-to-head wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State. Thus, if Texas beats Iowa State in Week 12, OSU would have a head-to-head win over the two teams tied with them in the standings, sending them to the Big 12 Championship Game. They must win out, however, to secure their spot. With a loss against Houston or BYU, they would likely miss out on the conference championship game. But for now, they still control most of their destiny.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, has a leg up on Iowa State because of a head-to-head win over the Cyclones. The Sooners finish the regular season on the road against BYU and at home against TCU. Brent Venables' team should be favored in each contest by quite a bit, but they need to win out to have a chance. More importantly, they have multiple paths to Arlington.

If Texas were to lose one of its remaining games, the Sooners' head-to-head win over the Longhorns would play a big role in figuring out the tiebreakers. One of Kansas State or Iowa State will lose in the final week of the season as they face off head-to-head. However, if Oklahoma State loses one of its final two games and Kansas State wins out, the Sooners would advance based on their record against the top common opponent, Texas.

Next up is an Iowa State team that is still lurking and has a chance to make some noise. The Cyclones finish the season hosting Texas and then on the road at Kansas State. They must win both remaining games to have a chance of getting to the Big 12 Championship Game. However, with a loss to Oklahoma already, they would also need the Sooners to drop one of their remaining games to get in.

That leaves us with Kansas State, who finishes the regular season at Kansas and, as mentioned, hosting Iowa State. The Wildcats would also need to win out, first and foremost, but would need both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to lose one of their remaining two games. The other path would be for Texas to lose to Iowa State. That would create a four-team tie that would send the Wildcats and Oklahoma to Arlington for their record against the top common opponent, Iowa State. Chris Klieman's team has the most unlikely path, but the path is still there.

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