Big Ten Football preview 2024: Predicted winner, hot seat watch, Heisman chances

For the first time since the inaugural College Football Playoff, the reigning national champion resides in the Big Ten. Although so much has changed over the last several months in Ann Arbor, the Michigan Wolverines are still the victors of major college football. Of course, arch rival Ohio State looms large, as well as the conference gaining four former Pac-12 universities, including Oregon.

With the Power Five becoming the Power Four and the College Football Playoff going from the four best teams, to the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus seven additional at-large teams, we can reasonably expect to see the Big Ten challenge the SEC for the most playoff teams this year, and probably most years. All the while, the sport of college football itself looks to be in a great spot.

So what I am going to do today is to preview the Big Ten like I did the SEC in the only way I know how: The Buhler Way, or better yet, The False Start Way... The written content here will accentuate what my boss, FanSided.com colleague and podcast co-host Cody Williams touched on in Episode 100 of False Start this week. Hopefully, you learn as much about the season ahead of the Big Ten as I did.

Let's start with the one question everybody wants to know: Who is going to playing in Indianapolis?

Playoffs? You Kiddin' Me?!: Who will play for the Big Ten Championship?

As it was with the SEC preview, this one feels like chalk. Although Cody Williams and I have the two teams inverted, I am going with the Ohio State Buckeyes coming out of the Big Ten by beating the Oregon Ducks in Indianapolis. It may seem strange to have the Buckeyes beating the Ducks twice before the playoff, but that is pretty much the same thing I had in the SEC with Georgia over Texas.

On the show, Williams said Oregon might be the best-coached team in the Big Ten, and I tend to agree with him. However, I sense that Ohio State has a more talented roster. This may prove to be the difference in this potential neutral-site affair over in Indianapolis. Regardless, Ohio State and Oregon are playoff locks, but are there any other serious playoff contenders to make it out of the Big Ten?

Right now, I would say Penn State is pretty much a lock to make it in. I have the Nittany Lions going 10-2 because that is what they do at the James Franklin Driving School. After that, I took a pair of teams I think will be going 8-4 in the USC Trojans and the Michigan Wolverines as extreme dark horses to get in. I don't think Iowa, Maryland or Rutgers have the upward trajectory to get in this year.

While I could be convinced of Oregon beating Ohio State in the rematch, this should be the title bout.

It's Gettin' Hot in Herre!: Big Ten head coaches on hot seat entering 2024

Cody Williams and I disagreed on a few Big Ten head coaches on the hot seat. While he is afraid that UCLA will give DeShaun Foster the Zach Arnett treatment after only one year, I could not quite get there. The hottest seat in the Big Ten in my eyes has to be P.J. Fleck at Minnesota. I have the Golden Gophers going 4-8. Only a few years ago, they were winning close to 10 games annually under him.

Outside of Fleck, I really wonder if Ryan Walters got the Purdue job prematurely. Then again, in between the Joe Tiller and Jeff Brohm eras in West Lafayette, there was a lot of suck in between. Walters is a Colorado alum, which is why I think he could conceivably replace Deion Sanders in Boulder one day. For now, he needs to get the Boilermakers close to .500 to not be on the hot seat.

And then, Williams and I went in a slightly different direction when it comes to the hot seat. I said that because of new athletic directors, I could see a scenario in which Ryan Day, Lincoln Riley, and even Jedd Fisch could be out of a job. Williams sees it the same way with Kirk Ferentz at Iowa. Day faces the most pressure. Fisch could leave for his alma mater of Florida. Ferentz also could retire instead.

To me, Fleck and Walters need to win now, and Riley needs to prove to everyone that he can evolve.

LIVE! From Eric Crouch's Couch: Best Heisman contender in the Big Ten

Again, I still have the right to change my opinion up until toe meets leather in Dublin for Week 0, but my pick to win the Heisman Trophy has changed from Jalen Milroe at Alabama to Dillon Gabriel at Oregon. Gabriel has been in college forever, at three schools in fact. With how great of a coaching staff Dan Lanning has in Eugene, including offensive coordinator Will Stein, I think Gabriel does it.

To round out my top five Heisman Trophy contenders out of the Big Ten, plus my sleeper pick, I went with Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson after Gabriel, followed by Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, Henderson's new Buckeyes teammate in Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins and then Gabriel's Oregon teammate Evan Stewart. Keep an eye on USC wide receiver Zachariah Branch, too.

How I feel about Oregon's chances of making the playoff are how I feel about Gabriel's chances of getting to New York. The only thing that could slow Gabriel down is an injury. Even if he were to get hurt, I really like his high-end backup in UCLA transfer Dante Moore. While I could see a way where either Ohio State running back gets to New York, they will split carries. That may be very problematic.

And even though I did not list Miller Moss or Dylan Raiola, I like their chances over Will Howard's.

I'm Trying, Jennifer...: Most likely team to go winless in Big Ten play

When I broke down all 18 Big Ten teams' schedules, I ended up with four teams who did not achieve bowl eligibility. That would be UCLA (4-8), Michigan State (4-8), Minnesota (4-8), Northwestern (2-10) and Purdue (2-10). UCLA won three conference games, mostly because I think travel will play a factor in hurting a team going to the West Coast at least once. So the Bruins are the first team to cross off.

When it comes to Michigan State, I firmly believe that the Spartans will be playing better in the second half of the season than the first under Jonathan Smith. With Aidan Chiles at quarterback, they will upset someone. I don't know who, but they will. And that leaves us with three teams who I have slated to win a combined two conference games this year in Minnesota, Northwestern and Purdue.

At the end of the day, I went with Purdue being the most likely team to go winless in Big Ten play. It is not by a huge margin, but I think David Braun is an excellent coach at Northwestern, although he is in a tough spot. P.J. Fleck needs to win my trust back, but I think his team is simply too talented to go 0-9 in Big Ten play. The Big Ten may not have a team go winless in conference play this season anyway.

Overall, the slightly higher ceilings in Minneapolis and Evanston prevail over that of West Lafayette.

The Paul Finch Satin Kimono: Biggest pretender in the Big Ten

The worst part about wearing The Paul Finch Satin Kimono in the Midwest is that it gets very cold in November. It may look cool, but there is a reason why Jim Levenstein's mysterious friend had to go home from school every day. The Paul Finch for me happens to be the flagship school in the state where some of the friend group went to college. It would be without debate the Michigan Wolverines!

Even with a manageable schedule, until I see what Alex Orji can do as a passer, as well as what Sherrone Moore can do in his first season as the head coach, I cannot say that Michigan belongs in the same discussion as Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State as Big Ten contenders. Heck, I even like USC's chances of making the playoff this season over the Wolverines'. This feels like an 8-4 team.

After Michigan, I remain skeptical on Phil Longo's Air Raid attack being able to work in frigid Wisconsin on defensive-minded Luke Fickell's staff. Tyler Van Dyke has talent, but he is not much of an ad-libber. Cody Williams completely disagrees with me, as he thinks the Badgers Definitely, Maybe Might Be Good. I need to see it first. There is a chance this goes to hell in a handbasket very quickly.

There were a few candidates for this "award", but Michigan was an easy choice for it this preseason.

Definitely, Maybe Might Be Good: Most underrated team in the Big Ten

As stated before, the Definitely Maybe is the inverse of the Paul Finch. This is all about finding the most underrated team in college football, or in the Big Ten Conference for this exercise... As Liam Gallagher once was while singing on Oasis' debut album, I'm feeling Supersonic about the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Greg Schiano knows exactly what to do to make this team as good as it can be.

He seems to know how to coach up all three levels of his defense. If Rutgers can get a little better on offense, especially at the quarterback position, they can win upwards of nine games with their soft schedule. Rutgers benefits so much from the Big Ten doing away with divisions. With so much of their roster returning from last year, I think that this team has a chance to be a top-six team in the Big Ten.

Another team I like more than others heading into this season out of the Big Ten would have to be the Indiana Hoosiers. Curt Cignetti left James Madison for a reason. He wanted a real shot at taking over a Power Four team. IU may have been bottom of the barrel, but I did see the Hoosiers playing hard for Tom Allen all the way until he was fired. A slightly better offense may get the Hoosiers to a bowl game.

While I might be bullish on USC to some degree, it is not as much as I am with Rutgers or Indiana.

Du Hast or Du Hasst?: Will the Big Ten get five teams into the playoff?

There are not a lot of guarantees with college football, but I know for certain that the Big Ten and the SEC will be getting multiple teams into the expanded College Football Playoff. I asked myself a similar question the other day in the SEC preview. While I think it is close, I am going to have to go Du Hasst (no) on the Big Ten getting five teams in. They will for sure be getting in multiple, but not five of them.

As stated above, Ohio State and Oregon are locks. For all intents and purposes, so is Penn State. But after that, I only have two other teams I think have somewhat serious College Football Playoff aspirations out of the Big Ten this year. That would be Michigan and USC, and I have them both going 8-4. A 9-3 team could conceivably get in out of the Big Ten as an at-large, but an 8-4 has no chance.

Again, I still have to figure out how I feel about the Big 12, the ACC and the Group of Five, as well as Notre Dame. Those clusters of teams are guaranteed to get three teams in by default. If the Big Ten is guaranteed three, and the SEC pretty much four, that leaves us with two spots. It can change in a week or so, but I am inclined to have Notre Dame getting a spot and the last at-large going to the SEC.

Ask yourself this: Is USC going to be better than Alabama, Tennessee or an ACC or Big 12 runner-up?

Pat the Doc: How will conference realignment impact the Big Ten in 2024?

With the Pac-12 dying, the Big Ten ended up with the four best brands in that former league in Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington. Obviously, their arrival in the Big Ten ended divisions as well. While this helps teams like Indiana, Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers out of the old Big Ten East, it hurts those who took advantage of the Big Ten West being weaker, such as Iowa and Wisconsin.

Since the league spans the entire Lower 48 for the most part, travel is going to be an issue for former Pac-12 schools going east and teams that played in the Big Ten East going west. Eventually, water will find its level, but I fully expect that teams that have to travel so far for a conference game will lose more than they win. It will help teams like UCLA get a few wins the Bruins would otherwise not get.

In terms of overall conference strength, the additions of the four former Pac-12 schools have the Big Ten comfortably in the Power Two along with the SEC. What is important though, is somebody out there on the West Coast needs to challenge Dan Lanning's coaching supremacy. Jedd Fisch is good, but may not be for long in Washington. Deshaun Foster is brand-new. Looking at you, Lincoln Riley...

The Big Ten may come out of conference realignment just fine, but there is a chance it may backfire.