Big Ten West championship scenarios: How Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, more can win

Believe it or not, some team is going to have to win the Big Ten West this year. So who could it be?
Nico Ragaini, Ernest Hausmann, Colton Feist, Iowa Hawkeyes, Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nico Ragaini, Ernest Hausmann, Colton Feist, Iowa Hawkeyes, Nebraska Cornhuskers / Matthew Holst/GettyImages
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For those of us sickos out there, are you ready to figure out who can make it to Indianapolis out of the Big Ten West?! I am doing the homework so you don't have to. You clearly use your brain for good and I use mine, well, for things like this. You have to feed your family, as I have to feed mine, and man's gotta eat, dawg. So with that in mind, are you ready for some mid-tier Big Ten cannon fodder, baby?!

Where things stand entering the final four weeks of the college football regular season, all seven Big Ten West schools are still alive for not only bowl games, but to get to Indianapolis as well. All that separates the top from the bottom is two conference wins. While four teams are 3-2 in conference play, another is a game back at 2-3 and two more are only two games back at a delightful 1-4 mark.

As expected, head-to-head prevails over everything. Next up, would have to be record in-division, followed closely by common opponents out of the Big Ten East, as well as the games y'all played over there. This will be a hoot and a half, alright, but I am taking this one for the team. While I have as much of a chance of winning in Indianapolis as any of these magnificent seven teams, I still have a job to do.

Without further ado, I present to you all that you need to know about the Big Ten West divisional race.

Big Ten West standings heading into Week 10

Here are the Big Ten West standings heading into the Saturday slate on Nov. 4.

  1. Iowa Hawkeyes: 6-2 (3-2)
  2. Minnesota Golden Gophers: 5-3 (3-2)
  3. Nebraska Cornhuskers: 5-3 (3-2)
  4. Wisconsin Badgers: 5-3 (3-2)
  5. Northwestern Wildcats: 4-4 (2-3)
  6. Purdue Boilermakers: 2-6 (1-4)
  7. Illinois Fighting Illini: 3-5 (1-4)

As you can see, four teams are 3-2 in conference play: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Minnesota holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Iowa and Nebraska, but has one less overall win than Iowa has entering Week 10. The Golden Gophers end the season at home vs. arch-rival Wisconsin. Fate would have it, Iowa will have to travel to Lincoln to play Nebraska for Cornucopia.

To help break things down a bit further, here is a look at each Big Ten West team's wins, losses and remaining opponents. Again, only two games separate the top from the bottom in the entire division.

  • Iowa: Wins (3): Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin. Losses (2): Penn State, Minnesota. Remaining Opponents (4): at Northwestern (Wrigley Field), vs. Rutgers, vs. Illinois, at Nebraska.
  • Minnesota: Wins (3): Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa. Losses (2): Northwestern, Michigan. Remaining Opponents (4): vs. Illinois, at Purdue, at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin.
  • Nebraska: Wins (3): Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue. Losses (2): Minnesota, Michigan. Remaining Opponents (4): at Michigan State, vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Iowa.
  • Wisconsin: Wins (3): Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois. Losses (2): Iowa, Ohio State. Remaining Opponents (4): at Indiana, vs. Northwestern, vs. Nebraska, at Minnesota.
  • Northwestern: Wins (2): Minnesota, Maryland. Losses (3): Rutgers, Penn State, Nebraska. Remaining Opponents (4): vs. Iowa (Wrigley Field), at Wisconsin, vs. Purdue, at Illinois.
  • Purdue: Wins (1): Illinois. Losses (4): Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, Nebraska. Remaining Opponents (4): at Michigan, vs. Minnesota, at Northwestern, vs. Indiana.
  • Illinois: Wins (1): Maryland. Losses (4): Penn State, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin. Remaining Opponents (4): at Minnesota, vs. Indiana, at Iowa, vs. Northwestern.

Just to make things a bit simpler, Illinois and Purdue are highly unlikely to go to Indianapolis, much less to a bowl game. Purdue beat Illinois, and Illinois beat Maryland. Unless they both win out in conference play to get to 5-4, they have virtually no shot of getting to Indianapolis. They also need chaos to ensue in the top half of the division between Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin.

Northwestern may only be 2-3 in conference play, but the Wildcats' only "bad" loss is to Nebraska in-division. Falling to Penn State and Rutgers out of the Big Ten East can be overcome, in theory, if they win out and get to 6-3. They would need Nebraska to lose two more conference games, as the Cornhuskers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. At 8-4 (6-3), Northwestern could make it.

Wisconsin may be still alive at 3-2, but the Badgers pretty much have to beat Nebraska and Minnesota to get in at 9-3 (7-2). This is because their three conference wins don't really carry very much clout: Purdue, Rutgers and Illinois. Their best conference win is over Rutgers. Congratulations. Wisconsin will need to win out and probably see Iowa drop another game to have any real shot at this.

Nebraska not having the head-to-head tiebreaker over a 3-2 Minnesota team certainly hurts them. They have been playing better football of late under new head coach Matt Rhule. All four of their remaining games are winnable, but their final two on the year at Wisconsin and vs. Iowa are crucial. Nebraska needs Minnesota to lose twice, which is possible with at Ohio State and vs. Wisconsin left.

Minnesota, at this moment, may have the best shot of getting to Indianapolis. Head-to-head wins over Nebraska and Iowa are key for P.J. Fleck's squad, but squandering one to Northwestern could come back to haunt them. Minnesota should beat Illinois and Purdue, but the Gophers are probably not beating Ohio State. It may come down to the Wisconsin game, and how Iowa and Nebraska finish.

Iowa is the only team in the Big Ten West that is bowl-eligible at 6-2 (3-2). Having the win over Wisconsin is big, but wins over Purdue and Michigan State are not. The Penn State loss is fine, but losing to Minnesota could hurt the Hawkeyes. All four of their remaining games are winnable, but Iowa's offense could leave them exposed in all four, especially vs. Northwestern, Rutgers and Iowa.

Overall, it looks like Iowa and then Minnesota have the best shots of getting to Indy. The Ohio State game could really knock the Gophers down a peg. Along with the Huskers, the Gophers may be playing the best football right now. However, I think the schedule advantage favors Iowa. As for Nebraska, Wisconsin, and to some extent Northwestern, they will need to win out and get some help.

Ultimately, we are going to get a tad more clarity in this division in the coming weeks. Two teams have no shot in Illinois and Purdue. Northwestern has a puncher's chance, but not really. As far as the top four in the division are concerned, Minnesota has the best win over Iowa, but the toughest game left at Ohio State. The Hawkeyes are very much in this, but the Badgers and Huskers will need to prove it.

Thankfully, the Big Ten is getting rid of divisions next year so we can get Michigan vs. Ohio State title bouts instead of the annual cakewalk the Big Ten East has had over the Big Ten West since its inception. All I know is that we will have a bit more clarity after Iowa at Northwestern this weekend, as well as a full slate of games across the Big Ten. Nobody is technically out of this race just yet, so buckle up...

Iowa or Minnesota are the best bets now, but Nebraska, Wisconsin and Northwestern all have a shot.

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