Bills take big-time gamble on future that could make-or-break Josh Allen

The Buffalo Bills handed right tackle Spencer Brown a four-year extension on Friday, banking on his continued growth as a key protector for Josh Allen. That faith is an undeniable gamble.

In announcing the deal, Mike Garoffolo opined the new contract "shows Buffalo values him as one of the top right tackles in the NFL." Afterall, his performance-based bonus was third-highest in the NFL.

Brown was a third-round pick in 2021. He has started 41 of 44 games since. However, those starts haven't always been pretty, especially as he was battling injuries in his first two seasons. In 2023, Brown had a 66.5 pass blocking grade from Pro Football Focus, rankings fourth among Bills regular starters.

So Jon Ledyard called it what it is.

"Think this is an upside play for Bills," Ledyard tweeted. "Don't think Brown is a great player rn, but he has improved, especially since his rough rookie season. Bills are hoping he keeps getting better."

The hope is where the risk lies, of course.

Josh Allen's future depends on Spencer Brown coming good

The Bills are pinning Josh Allen's future not on proven eliteness, but on Brown continuing on an upward trajectory. In their defense, Brown has steadily improved during his three years in Buffalo.

No matter what PFF's grades on him are, the Bills are the ones seeing him up close. Their internal grades are all that really matters.

And the positive evaluation may not be internal alone. In ESPN's poll of executives and scouts before the 2024 season, Brown received votes for the Top 10 offensive tackles ranking.

If there has been outside interest in Brown as he neared free agency, the Bills locking him in makes even more sense.

So, it comes down to this: Being right about Brown should set up Buffalo for many more years of Josh Allen staying upright and healthy. Being wrong...well that's not something anyone in Bills blue wants to think about.