Braves, analytics experts' take on Ronald Acuña Jr. should terrify rest of baseball

Ronald Acuña Jr.'s historic 40/70 season was unlike anything we have ever seen in baseball. Yes, he may have taken advantage of a new rule change to make it easier to swipe bags, but he still had to steal them, as well as play enough games to put over 40 balls into the bleachers. As long as he stays healthy and committed to playing every day, Acuña could become one of the greatest players ever.

The crazy part in all this is it almost feels like Acuña going 40/40 again is not only possible, but expected. In my conversation with Chipper Jones shortly before Thanksgiving, he suspects that his power will improve, while age naturally slows down his wheels. Jones believes that if Acuña takes care of himself, he will age gracefully, and will join him as a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

To further back up Jones and I's conversation from several months ago, his former teammate and noted Atlanta Braves coach Eddie Perez had glowing things to say about what is to come for Acuña in his MLB career. Here is one of the many things he told Ken Sugiura of the AJC about the outfielder.

“I think that’s what he wants, to prove that what he did last year was not lucky. That’s what he’s going to prove ... Because he wants to be on the field every day. And that’s the great thing about him. And I think he’s going to be like that forever.”

Acuña's five-tool game and staunch willingness to play every day certainly back up Perez's comments. But perhaps even more impressive, the advanced analytics say that the cards are in his favor. Dan Szymborski's ZiPs projection model, which he has run for 20 years now, projects baselines for players, based on past performance, injury history, age and a plethora of other important factors.

While I don't claim to be the leading expert on all things analytics, Szymborski's median projections indicate that Acuña will have around 43 home runs and 51 stolen bases. That would make him the first player to go 40/40 twice, let alone 40/50, as he is the only one to do so. Keep in mind Szymborski ran 2,000 simulations of the 2024 MLB season and this is the median, meaning he could be even better...

With the amount of protection around him in the Atlanta lineup, why not go for back-to-back MVPs?

Ronald Acuña Jr. may be expected to go 40/40 once again this season

For as exciting as the results of this statistical analysis may indicate, let's not put the cart in front of the horse. Keep in mind who his manager is. Brian Snitker is old school; he doesn't do analytics. Okay, that may not be entirely true, but the world should never forget a headline for the ages, just like we should never forget what Acuña did on the diamond last year. This is all about him staying healthy.

My favorite thing about Acuña's MVP campaign from a season ago was the maturity he demonstrated on the baseball diamond. Immensely talented, but painfully frustrating at times. While he has been an ever-present part of the dynastic run Atlanta has had over the NL East these last half-dozen years, how he matures as an adult may decide how many more championships this core can win together.

For the first time in his professional career, all of Braves Country fully rallied in support of the franchise's most talented player since Hank Aaron. Keep in mind Atlanta has retired roughly a dozen numbers over the years. Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz starred here. Jones spent his entire career here. The guy Atlanta wanted Freddie Freeman to be is playing right field for the Braves.

He can't do it all himself, but there is very little Acuña can't do on the baseball diamond in his prime.