The Open Championship picks 2024: Expert picks, best bets for Royal Troon

It's time for one last major championship before we run out the clock on the PGA Tour season and it's going to be a doozy. The Open Championship is always one of the most exciting and enjoyable tournaments of the year and the fact that the British Open is now heading back to Royal Troon for the first time since an epic showdown in 2016 only has me even more excited.

The last time Royal Troon hosted The Open, we got a historic Sunday showdown between Phil Mickelson and eventual winner Henrik Stenson as they blew away the rest of the field. And even in prior years, we've seen plenty of drama. The British Open always delivers at this diverse and fascinating links test. Players will need to be accurate off the tee, dialed on approaches from 150-200 yards and have their short game dialed-in, though that can happen numerous ways in links-style golf.

It's going to be a ton of fun and, after just narrowly missing a big outright last week, we're locked in to have a big finish to major championship season. So let's get into our British Open picks was we break down our best bets and what to know for Royal Troon this week.

All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Scottish Open: 24-155-0, -40.48 Units (1-67 on outrights and longshots | -3.5 units at Scottish Open) | One and Done Total for 2024: $14,652,117 (Tommy Fleetwood at Scottish Open, $56,790)

British Open picks for Top 5 Top 10, Top 20, One and Done

Hideki Matsuyama to finish Top 5 at The Open Championship (+750)

This honestly feels like insane value for Hideki Matsuyama. While he missed the cut at Royal Troon in 2016, he has plenty of solid finishes at The Open even if his overall history is up-and-down, which is not uncommon for this championship. Now when you factor his form and how it fits Troon, things get interesting. Over his last 20 rounds, Matsuyama has only been a marginal gainer off the tee and on approach overall. However, he's 11th in driving accruacy and seventh on approaches from 150-175 yards, two huge keys this week. Oh, and he's also first in SG: Around-the-Green, fifth in scrambling and Top 25 in the field in bogey avoidance. That all computes for success this week in a big way.

Aaron Rai to finish Top 10 at The Open Championship (+450)

At this point, I don't know how you'd convince yourself to not back Aaron Rai this week in some capacity. He hasn't missed a cut since April and has just two finishes outside the Top 20 since finishing T23 at the Zurich Classic. He's also coming in after going T2, T7 and T4 in the past three weeks. He checks all of the boxes too. He's first in driving accuracy, first in scrambling, first in bogey avvoidance and 29th on approach over the last 20 rounds. Most impressively, he's found something with the putter, ranking 29th in the field in SG: Putting over the last 36 rounds. He missed The Open last year and missed the cut in 2022 but was solo 19th in 2021. That's all enough for me to eye a Top 10 and not think twice.

Alexander Bjork to finish Top 20 at The Open Championship (+800)

We're taking a big swing for a Top 20 play but with some reason behind it. Alexander Björk is similar to Matsuyama in that the overall numbers haven't been that impressive but the specific metrics look phenomenal for this week. Over the last 20 rounds, he's seventh in strokes gained on approaches from 175-200 yards and sixth in scrambline while gaining slightly on approach overall. He's also sixth in SG: Putting over the last 36 rounds and finished T41 at The Open in only his second start in this major. When you think back to Todd Hamilton or even the likes of Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson, their short games carried them tremendously. Björk could be the guy to somewhat fit that mold this week and I'll take that chance at 8/1 odds.

One and Done Pick for The Open Championship: Hideki Matsuyama

We tried to use Hideki at the Wells Fargo but he withdrew, so we still have him available. With how high I am on his fit this week at Royal Troon, it only seems right to add him to the mix this week as our One and Done play.

British Open picks: More best bets for Royal Troon

Collin Morikawa to finish Top 10 at the British Open, 2 Units (+150)

Spoiler, we're going to touch a bit more on Collin Morikawa and his chances at Troon shortly. But one of the biggest things that fascinates me is how high I think the former Champion Golfer of the Year's floor is. So to still be getting plus odds on Morikawa to finish in the Top 10, I'm investing heavily in that this week.

Russell Henley to finish Top 20 at The Open Championship (+350)

To be sure, there are some numbers to back up Russell Henley this week at Royal Troon but perhaps the biggest thing is the value. This guy has been a stalwart on leaderboards all year and now we're seeing him at north of 100/1 in outright markets and more than 3/1 for just a Top 20. Over the last 20 rounds, Henley ranks fourth in driving accuracy, third in approach putt performance, sixth in Good Drive Percentage, 24th in SG: Approach overall and 18th on approach from 150-175 yards. He has a game that could play well at Royal Troon, so I'm going to take the value play based on that.

Aaron Rai to be First Round Leader at The Open, 0.1 Units (+7000, FanDuel)

With how hot Aaron Rai is, it's also worth noting that he's eighth this year on the PGA Tour in first round scoring average. Marrying his tendency to start hot -- especially putting himself in the ballpark of Scottie Scheffler, Morikawa, and other big names -- and his recent form, let's fire a small bullet for him to come out as the first round leader.

British Open winner picks: Outrights for Royal Troon in 2024

Collin Morikawa to win the British Open (+1600)

Perhaps the biggest surprise of Morikawa's most recent run is that he hasn't won. But man, he's been consistently in the mix. The last time Morikawa didn't finish Top 20 in a normal stroke play event was the Valero Texas Open, a tournament played the first week of April. He's also been stellar at majors this year, finishing T3 at The Masters, T4 at the PGA Championship and T14 at the US Open. After finishing T4 at the Scottish Open last week, Morikawa is now sixth in driving accuracy, eighth in bogey avoidance, third on approach from 150-175 yards and fifth on approach from 175-200 yards. Sneakily, he's also 10th in SG: Putting over the last 36 rounds as well. He's hoisted the Claret Jug in the past three years and I think he's primed to do it once again this week.

Tom Kim to win the British Open, 0.5 Units (+5000, FanDuel)

Tom Kim was uber-popular last week at the Scottish Open and he didn't deliver -- even though he quietly climbed to finish T15. But the signs are still there that someone who's played well in the UK can deliver again. Over the last 20 rounds, he's fifth in driving accuracy, 20th in SG: Off the Tee and Approach, 13th in bogey avoidance and 11th in scrambling. We're also just three weeks removed from him nearly winning the Travelers Championship over Scottie Scheffler. And even with a disappointing finish for many last week, he gained 6.55 strokes ball striking. Coming off a T2 at The Open Championship last year, I'm all in on another run and potentially a win.

Jordan Spieth to win the British Open, 0.4 Units (+6600)

I'm not going to lie to you, there aren't too many numbers to be confident in with Jordan Spieth. His driving has dramatically improved overall, specifically with accuracy, and he should have a ton of approaches from 150-175 yards, where he ranks 25th over the last 20 rounds in strokes gained. But his putting has gone awry, losing 0.36 strokes per round over his last 36. And his around-the-green play has slipped too. However, Spieth has just thrived in this tournament. He was T30 here in 2016, won the next year, then has a T9, T20, runner-up, T8 and T23 at The Open since. There's a reason he's 66/1 to win this week but with his history, I'm going to bite on that number.