Broncos effusive praise of Bo Nix could backfire immensely

The Denver Broncos' decision to select Oregon QB Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick in April's NFL Draft was, for lack of a better term, ill-considered.

Sure, the Broncos need a quarterback, but Nix was a second-round grade for the majority of draft folks. Even with the inflated value of quarterbacks relative to other positions, selecting Nix in the first round — not to mention the first half of the first round — felt like a substantial overreach.

Maybe it all works out. Situation is everything for NFL rookies and Nix has the unabashed support of his head coach. It's well-known that Sean Payton drove the Broncos to pick Nix after an impressive meeting with the team. Nix was always going to interview well and coaches love experience. Nix, who started 61 games across five college seasons, enters the league with an unprecedented volume of live-game, high-stakes experience.

Last season was a total masterclass from the Ducks' senior. He completed 77.4 percent of his passes for 4,508 yards and 45 touchdowns. By comparison, he threw only three interceptions. The ratio of successes to mistakes was gobsmacking, and Nix was light on his feet, too. Of course, NFL teams were interested.

But, a dig below the surfaces reveals a certain level of concern. That's why we shouldn't go overboard with expectations. Not yet, at least. The Broncos, however, are hyping up Nix to a dangerous extent. Here's a telling quote from Omar Ruiz on NFL Network:

"Sean Payton's not tipping his hand as far as how they'll divvy up reps when training camp begins, or where the pecking order is right now for that quarterback competition. But as for Bo Nix, you said it; no secret that seemingly he was the perfect fit for Sean Payton's offense, and [the] early returns on Nix's development has been overwhelmingly positive, and everything we talked about from his days at the University of Oregon and the record 61 college starts that he had between the Oregon Ducks and the Auburn Tigers, as well as the five or so different systems that he played with in college have certainly lessened his learning curve... Nothing seems to be too big for Bo Nix."

That is a lot for an unproven rookie battling Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in OTAs.

Broncos heap effusive praise on Bo Nix ahead of training camp

This is obviously a very positive update for Broncos fans. We don't need to twist it. There is an alternate timeline where Nix is behind the curve and all his wonderful college experience doesn't translate to preseason ramp-ups, which would cause a minor panic in the fanbase. After all, Nix is 24 years old. He is eight months younger than Trevor Lawrence, who just signed a $275 million extension in Jacksonville. If he's not "ahead of the curve" for a rookie, well, that is a problem.

Still, Denver would be wise to temper expectations. Nix operated under extremely friendly conditions at Oregon. The Ducks surrounded him with an elite offensive line and a dynamic pass-catching corps, all while running a system that prioritized quick reads and simple throws, rather than asking Nix to create explosive plays downfield.

That's not to say Nix has never made an impressive throw into traffic, but he's not launching deep bombs up the sideline like Michael Penix Jr. or Drake Maye. He's mobile, but he's not Jayden Daniels in the open field. Nix is a very smart game-manager type, best when surrounded by high-level talent and asked to facilitate quick-hit throws.

He's working with a great quarterbacks coach in Sean Payton, that much is undeniable. But, as the last couple years proved, Payton can't get through to every QB. Nix has a decent chance to surpass Russell Wilson in the NFL hierarchy sooner than later, but Broncos fans (and the coaching staff) cannot expect perfection out of the gate. He needs some leeway to learn and grow into his role, even if the Broncos are aiming for the playoffs.