Buying or selling: Aaron Judge reaching 60 home runs again?

It goes without saying, Aaron Judge is the most prolific home run hitter in this generation of MLB players. In 2022, he set the all-time American League record with 62 long balls in a single season breaking the old record of 61 set by another Yankees’ great, Roger Maris in 1961. Is this special?

For the AL it is. In the NL, there’s three guys ahead of him: Barry Bonds, Mark MacGuire (2x), and Sammy Sosa (3x). Of course, there is always the steroid argument that one could make to say Judge has the highest single-season home run total of any clean player. But that’s a discussion for another day.

Today’s discussion happens to stem from a recent article from MLB.com breaking down Judge’s path to 60 home runs this year. In it, Mike Petriello details how Judge can hit 19 more homers in 47 games remaining. He goes through great lengths to show Judge’s path to 60 with projected numbers, intentional walks, even the list of ballparks and opponents the Yankees have left on their schedule.

Petriello comes to this conclusion: “Forty-seven Yankees games left. Nineteen homers for sixty. It’s not guaranteed. It’s not easy. It is, however, extremely in reach. The magic number (meaning Judge’s 62) remains an all-time mark.”

However, Petriello does state Judge will need to play every game to hit number 60. Whether he’s right about that or not, can Judge hit 60 this year?

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Buy Aaron Judge hitting 60 home runs

As Petriello notes, projections show Judge is on pace to hit 58 HR this year at most. Judge has 41 HR with 47 games left on the schedule. He needs to hit 19 HR to reach 60. Judge has drawn 95 walks and 12 intentional walks.

Let’s say Judge gets four ABs per game, which isn’t likely to happen considering all the walks. That would give Judge 188 at-bats on the rest of the season. Judge has a 9.78 AB/HR ratio, which means he hits a home run roughly every 10 ABs. Doing simple division, we see that Judge barely makes it to 19 HR (188/9.78 = 19.223 HR).

As previously noted, Judge won’t likely get 188 ABs due to his .188 walk percentage (highest in baseball).

But let’s be clear about something: numbers are numbers. This scenario doesn't account for the event that Judge can hit two homers in a game, something he’s done many times before. Not to mention, players often go on incredible stretches that defy their typical statistics, even Judge whose numbers are already astronomical.

In 2022, Judge’s AB/HR ratio was 9.19. If Judge can outperform this season’s 9.78 AB/HR ratio by just a little, as ridiculous as it sounds, he could arrive at 60 HR. And, as mentioned in Petriello’s assessment, the Yankees will face the White Sox and Rockies, number two and three respectively in most home run balls surrendered (Rockies will be facing Yankees in New York which will benefit their pitching to an extent).

Make no mistake, the odds are against him. But with Judge, this just might be a favorable bet. As the model used in Petriello’s assessment projected, Judge can hit 58 HR. Only two more will get him to 60. Judge to 60 is a buy.