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Cardinals can’t be fooled this offseason by a meaningless stretch run

Despite a hot stretch, the Cardinals would benefit by moving on from Paul Goldschmidt this offseason.

By Zachary Rotman

Sep 2, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) reacts after striking out in the eighth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
Sep 2, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) reacts after striking out in the eighth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
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The St. Louis Cardinals will almost certainly miss the postseason for a second consecutive season despite John Mozeliak's best efforts this past offseason and at the trade deadline because their stars failed to perform like stars. Paul Goldschmidt is the biggest culprit there.

Goldschmidt, the 2022 NL MVP winner, had a down year in 2023 and has had easily the worst season of his career, slashing .246/.303/.414 with 21 home runs and 59 RBI in 142 games. His 100 WRC+ makes him exactly league-average as a hitter, which is startling for a player of Goldschmidt's caliber, to say the least.

To his credit, Goldschmidt has played in 142 of St. Louis' 149 games up to this point and, as the season has gone on, has gotten better. He has a 130 WRC+ since August 1 and a 139 WRC+ in September, making him the best hitter on the team for the last couple of months. While it's been encouraging to see Goldschmidt look closer to his old self, the Cardinals cannot let this hot streak blind them into thinking they should bring him back this offseason.

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Hot stretch run should not fool the Cardinals into re-signing Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt has been outstanding lately, there's no disputing that, but does his hot 38-game stretch wipe away the 104 prior? In those games, he slashed .233/.291/.387, putting up a measly .678 OPS. His season OPS, even with his hot streak, is .717. He has needed this hot streak just to make him a league-average hitter and nothing more.

His 26.5 percent strikeout rate is as high as it has been outside of his 48-game cameo in his rookie year of 2013. His 7.1 percent walk rate is a career low. If he doesn't hit another three home runs in the next couple of weeks, he'll end the season with his lowest home run total in a full season (excluding 2020) since 2013, a year in which he was limited to 109 games.

What should really seal the deal in terms of Goldschmidt's tenure in St. Louis coming to an end is his inability to hit right-handed pitching. He has done pretty well against southpaws for much of the season, but his .689 OPS against righties leaves a lot to be desired and makes him an unappealing option as a regular player.

Goldschmidt is 37 years old. Will things really get better in 2025? Based on the full-season body of work, it's easier to suggest that it won't.

If the Cardinals really want to make a major jump in 2025 and get back into the postseason, an external addition is the way to go. Even if they want to stay internal, guys like Alec Burleson or Luken Baker make more sense at first base.

Goldschmidt had a great tenure with the Cardinals, and he might make sense in a platoon role if he'd be open to that, but anything more would be a mistake. The Cardinals need to find a way to turn the page and try something new. Letting Goldschmidt go would be a good start.

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