Much-needed Cardinals reunion could potentially be spoiled by contract decision

The St. Louis Cardinals have done a tremendous job rebounding from their rough start and they enter Tuesday's series opener against the Kansas City Royals with a 48-42 record. They're now just 4.5 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central and are in sole possession of the second Wild Card spot in the NL.

Barring an epic collapse, the Cardinals will be buyers at this year's trade deadline. One area that could use some improvement is their starting rotation. Sonny Gray is elite, but the rest of the rotation is old and frankly over-performing. The Cardinals could use another high-end starter if they want to make a deep postseason run.

One of the best starting pitchers that will presumably be available is old friend Jack Flaherty, who spent parts of seven seasons with the Cardinals before being traded at last year's deadline. A Flaherty reunion makes a ton of sense based on how well he has pitched for the Detroit Tigers this season, but as Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney point out via The Athletic ($), a trade is far from a guarantee.

Cardinals could lose out on ideal trade target due to contract decision

"As long as he demonstrates he is healthy, he could be one of the most coveted starters leading into the deadline. But if the Tigers do not get an offer they deem acceptable, they can keep Flaherty, make him a qualifying offer at the end of the season and potentially receive a draft pick at the end of the first round as compensation."

Flaherty has missed time this season due to injury so he'd have to show he's healthy before the deadline, but assuming he is, he'll be one of the best arms available. If the Tigers don't get an offer that really excites them, they can simply hold onto Flaherty, make him a qualifying offer at the end of the season, and get a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere in free agency.

"As a revenue-sharing recipient, the Tigers’ selection would be between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A as long as Flaherty signed a free-agent deal for more than $50 million. If healthy, he should clear that bar easily. Entering his age 29 season, he would be one of the youngest starters on the market."

The Tigers would get a pick at the end of the first round if Flaherty inks a deal for more than $50 million with another team. Given his age and how well he has pitched, he's almost certainly going to sign for more than $50 million if he's healthy.

Flaherty has been outstanding when healthy, posting a 3.24 ERA in 15 starts and 89 innings of work for Detroit this season. Most impressively, he has struck out 115 batters in those innings while walking just 14 batters all year. His 8.1 K/BB ratio is third in the majors among pitchers with at least 80 innings of work.

He'd be a perfect fit in St. Louis, but they'd have to offer more than Detroit would value the compensatory pick. Whether John Mozeliak would be comfortable doing that for a rental remains to be seen.