Brutal Cardinals injury at worst time could have surprise silver lining

The St. Louis Cardinals' chances of seeing the postseason were already on life support as the club came into Saturday evening's matchup on the road against the Minnesota Twins. And after that game, an eventual 6-0 loss in Minneapolis, they are even more so.

Not only did the Cardinals fall to a game below .500 with the loss to the Twins but they also lost one of the biggest namers in their lineup for the second time this season.

Catcher Willson Contreras, who suffered a broken arm earlier this season after he was hit by a swing while behind the plate closely trying to better frame pitches, was hit by a pitch on Saturday night and was left in a ton of pain before exiting the game. After the game's conclusion, it was reported that Contreras suffered a fractured finger and will be going back to the IL.

Contreras had been quite good for the Cards since the All-Star break, posting a .914 OPS in July before dropping off but still hitting slightly above average with a .728 OPS in August. But now, he'll be out of action with Ivan Herrera getting inserted into the mix as a result. It's the worst possible time, it would seem, for the Cardinals to lose such a key piece.

But in actuality, what we've seen this season might actually indicate the opposite.

Cardinals have actually been better without Willson Contreras this season

Let me preface this by saying I would never wish injury on any player, no matter what it meant for a team. However, the numbers this season quite simply state that St. Louis has been a winning baseball team when they've played without Contreras in the 2024 season while they've been a losing club when he has played.

In 84 games with Contreras active, the Cardinals are 10 games below .500 at 37-47 this year. In the 45 games that he's missed, this team is 27-18. That's a pretty sizable swing in terms of the team's overall success, one that's hard to ignore.

This certainly isn't to say that Herrera or Pedro Pages have been better than Contreras this year -- it's statistically quite the opposite. Both players have an OPS more than 100 points lower than the now-injured veteran for the season. But for whatever reason, the Cardinals have simply been a better team when the backups have been thrust into the spotlight.

Does this ultimately matter? Well, it could keep the waning glimmer of postseason hope that St. Louis has alive, in theory. After Saturday's loss, they have only a 2.5% chance of making the postseason according to Fangraphs. It's a longshot. However, this is also an organization on the brink of blowing it all up if their season doesn't end according to plan. So perhaps a strong finish, even without the result being a playoff berth, could be worth it.

In any case, it'll be something worth monitoring, especially as potential big changes for the Cardinals and the organization's future loom.