CFB bowl projections: 3 most shocking CFP teams in Brett McMurphy’s preseason look 

 The official start to the 2024 college football season kicks off on Saturday when the No. 10 Florida State Seminoles and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Dublin, Ireland. They were will be many teams in serious contention for the 2024 College Football Playoff, especially with the new 12-team format.

The four remaining automatic conferences in the ACC, the Big 12, the Big Ten and the SEC will battle through a tough season with new teams being added to the conferences. There are also the other teams to worry about in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the remaining two teams from the Pac-12 and the non-automatic conferences that could steal a spot.

The Action Network’s Brett McMurphy created his 12-team playoff bracket to decide on a champion. There are some valid teams in the bracket while there are highly questionable teams in there as well. Here are the three most shocking teams in McMurphy’s 12-team bracket.

CFB bowl projections: 3 most shocking teams in Brett McMurphy’s preseason look 

Iowa Hawkeyes

The Big Ten and the SEC are two conferences that are going to be in serious contention to have four teams in the discussion of the 12-team Playoff bracket. In McMurphy’s bracket, both conferences have four teams in.

For the Big Ten, it shouldn’t be surprising to see Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State selected, but the biggest surprise comes in at number four. McMurphy believes the coaching changes and new players at Iowa this season will be enough to get them into the postseason.

Head coach Kirk Ferentz made the smart move to relieve his son, Brian, as offensive coordinator and go with Tim Lester. That hire alone isn’t enough to address why the Hawkeyes were the second-least productive scoring offense in the nation last year, averaging 15.4 points per game.

Even with the defense playing elite and the offense having capable starters, the team lacks the explosive measures to come back from behind against more elite opponents. It is going to be difficult for the Hawkeyes to face new conference foes versus Washington and at UCLA on top of facing at Ohio State and at Michigan State.

A more likely fourth Big Ten team going to the playoff would be the Michigan Wolverines or the USC Trojans.

Texas State Bobcats

One of the most surprising teams to be included by McMurphy comes from a non-automatic conference. Instead of picking a team from the AAC or the C-USA, McMurphy believes the top team outside of the four major conferences is the surprise Sun Belt Conference Champion in the Texas State Bobcats.

Last season, the Bobcats had one of the biggest improvements from the season before out of all the teams at the FBS level. The Bobcats finished last season with an overall record of 8-5 in the first season under head coach G.J. Kinne. In the season before, the Bobcats accounted for an overall record of 4-8.

This is a program that hasn’t had a lot of success in its 12 years as a FBS program. The Bobcats have accumulated an overall record of 48-97 and only two seasons above .500 percent.

Texas State is projected to finish first in the Sun Belt’s Western Division, according to the preseason media poll. They will be a tough team to face this upcoming season, but they will have to get through the Appalachian State Mountaineers or the James Madison Monarchs for the conference title.

The UTSA Roadrunners or the Memphis Tigers are two teams from the AAC that have serious odds to be the team from a non-automatic conference to be in. Many analysts have the Liberty Flames as that team, instead of Texas State. 

Virginia Tech Hokies

The last most shocking team comes from the ACC, where the No. 10 Florida State Seminoles is projected to make a serious run for the conference and national title. McMurphy projects the No. 19 Miami (FL) Hurricanes to win the ACC, but also the Virginia Tech Hokies to be the second team out of the conference.

The Hokies are going into their third season with Brent Pry as head coach. Last season, Virginia Tech accounted for an overall record of 7-6, their first season above .500 percent since 2019.

There is more optimism that the Hokies will be serious competitors, but to take a hard turn from the middle of the pack to a playoff team is difficult.

The Hokies are ranked sixth in the ACC media pre-season poll with only five first-place votes. They will also have to survive difficult road trips to Miami, Stanford, and Duke as well as home games against Georgia Tech, Clemson, and their rivals, Virginia.

This selection might feel good in a few seasons, but this season feels premature to include them in the discussion for playoff contenders.