Chiefs vs Bills: Here’s who experts think will win AFC divisional game

Much more football is left to be played in this NFL season after Sunday, but we may look back and say that the Divisional Round game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills was the game of the postseason looking back on it.

This game has plenty of hype behind it, but should live up to it. It's another Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen game, this time being played in Orchard Park for the first time ever.

So, who will win? Perhaps the experts know best. Here's how they predicted the matchup to go.

ESPN’s expert picks

Here is how the expert picks out of Bristol swayed:

• Bell: Bills
• Bowen: Chiefs
• Clay: Bills
• Graziano: Chiefs
• Martin: Bills
• Moody: Bills
• Thiry: Chiefs
• Wickhersham: Bills

That's five picks for the Bills, three for the Chiefs, a balanced showing from the worldwide leader for this one.

The Athletic expert picks

Analyst picks from The Athletic are here (subscription required):

• Zak Keefer: Bills
• Nick Kosmider: Bills
• Ben Standig: Bills
• Zack Rosenblatt: Bills
• Chad Graff: Bills
• Zac Jackson: Bills
• Larry Holder: Chiefs

Tilted toward Buffalo for sure here, with Holder the (pun intended) hold-out.

That brings the running tally to 11 for the Bills, four for the Chiefs.

The Athletic coach/executive picks

The Athletic also polled some coaches and executives. Here's how that played out (subscription required).

The results are anonymous, but eight picked the Bills, only one picked the Chiefs.

Bills Mafia tincture (which I'm told is just Frank's hot sauce) made it into the Kool-Aid at The Athletic this week, clearly.

Running tally: 19 for the Bills, five for the Chiefs.

Associated Press expert pick

Rob Maaddi made his pick this week here.

He landed on Buffalo winning by just one point, 24-23.

"Mahomes’ first road playoff game of his career comes after two victories over the Bills at home in consecutive postseasons in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. The teams didn’t face off last year in the playoffs when the Chiefs (12-6) went on to win the Super Bowl.

The Bills (12-6) were 6-6 before a 20-17 victory at Kansas City ignited a five-game winning streak to close out the regular season. They’re playing on shorter rest after a snowstorm forced them to play Pittsburgh on Monday. The Chiefs had two extra days’ rest after beating Miami last Saturday night."

That brings our count to 20-5, Buffalo.

NFL.com expert picks

Around the NFL on NFL.com made its selections. Here's how they decided:

• Ali Bhanpuri: Chiefs
• Brooke Cersosimo: Chiefs
• Dan Parr: Chiefs
• Gennaro Filice: Chiefs
• Tom Blair: Bills

This one is lopsided the other way, and brings the count closer. 20-10, Bills so far.

USA Today expert picks

This is how it played out at USA Today:

• Jarrett Bell: Chiefs
• Chris Bumbaca: Chiefs
• Nate Davis: Chiefs
• Safid Deen: Bills
• Tyler Dragon: Chiefs
• Victoria Hernandez: Bills
• Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz: Bills
• Lorenzo Reyes: Bills

Exactly split here at four apiece to bring the count to 24-14, Bills.

Sports Illustrated expert picks

The Monday Morning Quarterback of Sports Illustrated team made its choices here.

• Albert Breer: Bills
• Connor Orr: Bills
• Gilberto Manzano: Chiefs
• Matt Verderame: Chiefs
• John Pluym: Chiefs
• Mitch Goldich: Chiefs
• Claire Kuwana: Chiefs

Five Chiefs picks and two Bills picks brings the running count (and final, for this article's considerations) to Bills: 26, Chiefs: 19.