CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

On the heels of the lone team event on the PGA Tour, we're heading back to Texas for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024. This event has traditionally been the AT&T Byron Nelson on the calendar, meaning that golf returns to TPC Craig Ranch for the fourth straight year, but now The CJ Cup has hitched its wagon to this tournament, one that has recently been K.H. Lee's sweet spot.

Lee has won two of the three tournaments at this event played at TPC Craig Ranch, hoisting the trophy in 2021 and 2022, though he fell off to T50 last year when Jason Day was the winner. Both players are in the field this week, but come in with questions about their form. Will they still make our CJ Cup picks for this week's Byron Nelson?

We need some winners after getting shut out for another week with several close calls at the Zurich Classic. This feels like a week to make some headway, however, so let's get right into our CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks and best bets for the week to tackle this slate.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Texas: 13-90-0, -23.33 Units (1-36 on outrights and longshots | -4.6 units at Zurich Classic) | One and Done Total for 2024: $6,331,817 (Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy at Zurich Classic, $0)

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PGA Tour expert picks for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Mark Hubbard (+450)

While driving distance helps at TPC Craig Ranch, it's not the end-all. What's more important is approach play and being able to score low, specifically taking advantage of short Par 5s on this course, of which there are only three. Mark Hubbard fits that mold despite being a shorter hitter off the tee. Over the last 20 rounds, he's 20th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Top 30 in both SG: Total and Par 5 scoring over that span, and has putted well on bentgrass, which has been his biggest issue of late. His history at TPC Craig Ranch is just a pair of Top 35 finishes but, with his form combined with being a scorer ranked eighth in Birdie or Better Gainted Percentage over the last 20 rounds, I like him to show up and continue a solid run.

Outright Winner pick for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (0.5 Units): Mackenzie Hughes (+4500)

Make no mistake, Mackenzie Hughes does not fit the typical profile of what you would probably think would work at TPC Craig Ranch. But one thing it takes to win this week is a ton of birdies and Hughes has been racking them up lately, and ranks third over the last 20 rounds in this field for SG: Total to prove that. His short game is his weapon but, prior to a poor showing at the RBC Heritage, he'd also figured out his approach play, gaining in the four prior events. He also finished T14 here last year while losing on approach, which bodes well for his improvements there. Hughes' biggest secret weapon is his easy Par 5 scoring, where he's an outlier among bombers. That will still help him here, though, and he's a sleeper to win this week.

One and Done pick for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Mackenzie Hughes

Even if Hughes doesn't win -- though I'm confident he definitely can -- I think his floor is extremely high right now with how he's performing (he finished Top 35 at RBC Heritage while losing strokes in both ball striking categories. I like that for a flier this week in One and Done.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks: More best bets for PGA Tour this week

Si Woo Kim to finish Top 5 at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (+350)

Si Woo Kim is going to be an extremely popular play this week both in the betting markets and in DFS games. But there's too much to love for him not to be. He finished runner-up here by one stroke last year and has been better this season overall. In this field, he's 25th in SG: Approach, second in SG: Total, third in Par 5 scoring and 10th in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage over his last 20 rounds. He has the ball striking to contend and the putter remains a gamble, but a worthwhile one given the history and profile.

Peter Kuest to finish Top 20 at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (+320)

Getting Peter Kuest at this number to only finish in the Top 20 feels ridiculous in the best way. His last two starts at Corales Putacana and Valero were both Top 10s and he finished T14 here. He can bomb it off of the tee, but has been finding the rest of his game, gaining on approach over his last 20 rounds. But the other metrics check out beautifully. He's 16th in SG: Total, seventh in Par 5 scoring, 11th in bentgrass putting, 20th in approach shots proximity from 200-225 yards, and 40th in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage over his last 20 rounds. He has volatility, but Kuest's upside is immense.

Nate Lashley to finish Top 20 at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (+333)

Another player who I see being a bit undervalued, I like what Nate Lashley has going right now. He's third in this field in SG: Approach over the last 16 rounds as well as being third tee-to-green over that span. His finishes have been sporadic but he's also finished T23 and T17 in the last two starts at TPC Craig Ranch. He's not an ideal fit, but the way he's striking the ball should give him plenty of opportunities and he's played well here while now adding him entering in great form.

Longshot Pick to win The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (0.1 Units): Jacob Bridgeman (+12500)

Going for it with Jacob Bridgeman as our longshot pick this week. He's 18th in SG: Approach and 13th in SG: Total over the last 20 rounds in the field, a decently long driver, and is just a scorer, ranking third in this field in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage. It's a flier for a reason as his putter and game show a lot of volatility, but this course could suit him perfectly if he's on, so it's most definitely worth a shot here.