5 chronic underachievers that can flip the script in the 2024 CFB season
By John Buhler
Throughout the entirety of the College Football Playoff era of major college football, these traditional powers have not been part of it even once. While some of that could be changing in short order, for others, they may have to honestly assessing themselves by looking in the mirror and asking quietly to oneself: "Is this even good enough anymore?" Back to the drawing board for some who felt inspired.
When you think about the first decade of the playoff postseason format, there are many reasons why these schools never got a team into the four-man dance. Regardless, there are more opportunities to be had this year and beyond with playoff expansion upon us. Maybe the new 12-team format gives one of these perennial underachievers a shot at some real success in short order? Or just a thought...
So what I want to do today is to take a look at five recent underachievers heading into this college football season and what success should look like if they were to somehow flip the script. We all college football fans always love it when the script is turned upside down and then spun out on its head like a top. Not all successes should be viewed the same, but I can tell what it looks like for some.
Let's start with a team who has quite possibly the toughest schedule across the entire Power Four.
5. Florida Gators
The goal for Florida this year should be different than that of pretty much other would-be College Football Playoff contender. Simply put, the Gators' regular-season schedule is far too daunting for this team to go any better than 8-4. If you are bullish on their talent, then yes, 8-4 is the new goal. In actuality, it should be achieving bowl eligibility and hoping Billy Napier gets another year on the job.
If Florida plays up to what its talent says it can be, then maybe we are looking at a turn-around season for the Gators, en route to one worthy of having serious College Football Playoff aspirations in 2025 or 2026. In the meantime, understand that Florida will need to do the improbable to make the playoff. The good news is they have plenty of bulletin board material to prove all their critics wrong.
Florida flips the script by finishing in the top 25 and playing well down the stretch during a tough slate.
4. Texas A&M Aggies
I am not ready quite yet to cross the Texas A&M Aggies off as a serious College Football Playoff contender. While they have shown an innate ability to look alive in the non-conference, it has been inconsistent execution in SEC play that has largely prevented the Aggies from ever making the playoff. They may have made it in before had there been a 12-team playoff in previous seasons.
What Texas A&M needs to do and flip the script is to go something like 10-2 with a first win on the season at home vs. Notre Dame, followed up by an upset win nobody outside of College Station thought the Aggies would get. With a 10-2 mark and potentially several top-25 victories, it would be awfully hard to keep Texas A&M out of the expanded playoff format with those type of qualifications.
I think maybe upwards of nine SEC teams could make the playoff if you say Texas A&M has a chance.
3. Miami Hurricanes
This is the last time I get myself hyped up about a Miami Hurricanes football season. I still remember the second great wave of The U. That type of brand recognition can do a number on anyone. In the meantime, Miami is about one of four teams in the ACC with good, to halfway decent playoff odds. Most pundits have them slotted with the third-best chances behind only Florida State and Clemson.
I think for Miami, the Hurricanes need to go something like 10-2. That may not be enough to get to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game, but they will be in the spotlight featuring those who can up until the final day. Miami needs to get back to being in the upper middle of the ACC. With the right mix of players, the Canes can most certainly force their way into the top. We all saw it happen before.
Some sort of 10-2 or maybe even a 9-3 season will play a part in helping turn Miami around quickly.
2. USC Trojans
USC is in a similar boat as Miami. We know that the talent and infrastructure should have the Trojans and Hurricanes competing for championships most seasons. Whether it has been some unresolved leadership issues or questionable coaching hires, we find USC and Miami to be not so dissimilar. I think the Trojans need to go something like 9-3 or even 10-2 in the new Big Ten to make a big splash.
Because I sense the ACC is more up for grabs than the Big Ten is at the top of it, Miami has slightly more realistic playoff chances this year than does USC. However, a 9-3 USC team that shows us it belongs in the new Big Ten could help Lincoln Riley gain some much-needed staying power at the helm of USC. It is all about controlling the narrative, one USC needs to take back before it is too late.
It would be such a nice wrinkle this college season if USC remained a playoff contender throughout.
1. Penn State Nittany Lions
This year could be different for the Penn State Nittany Lions for a few reasons. They have a loaded roster. They just upgraded their coordinators with Tom Allen and Andy Kotelnicki coming in. Most importantly, the Big Ten should have multiple spots available to be earned in the expanded College Football Playoff. Ask yourself this: If the Big Ten gets four playoff teams in, is Penn State one of them?
I think with the right stroke of luck, a virtual playoff lock in Penn State could go from playing in the first round at home to having a first-round bye as a Big Ten champion. I wouldn't count on it because Ohio State and Oregon also play in that league, but I think a potential top-four finish at the end of the season is not out of the realm of possibilities just yet for Penn State. This team shall be quite good.
Penn State could go from playoff darling this season, to a serious contender to win it all come 2026.