6 Group of Five teams who can take advantage of UNLV’s season-ending redshirt debacle
By John Buhler
At 4-0, the UNLV Rebels still look like a serious contender to win the Mountain West and come out of the Group of Five to make the expanded College Football Playoff. While they would not be the first Group of Five team to make the tournament, as the 2021 Cincinnati Bearcats pulled that off when they competed in the AAC, this is still a huge opportunity for a program that is in untrodden territory.
In the wake of their strong Week 5 victory over Fresno State, we have to wonder if starting quarterback Matthew Sluka opting for a redshirt could derail this team. Honestly, it may not, but it something to consider. We are in the midst of what could be the best season in UNLV football history. Barry Odom is in his bag, and could be getting the bag with an even better job come the offseason.
While my mind is on the subject, I wanted to dish out a six-pack of Group of Five contenders who could get that automatic qualifier spot should UNLV falter. Some are more surprising than others, but I feel strongly that each Group of Five league has at least one legitimate threat to challenge UNLV for that presumptive No. 12 seed. The best part is it may not take an undefeated season to get in now.
Let's start with one team in the MAC nobody is talking about, but could have it in them to make it in.
6. Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-1)
Right now, the MAC is the only league that does not have an undefeated team still part of it. In years past, that may have removed the entire conference from the equation of possibly getting a team to the New Year's Six. Well, now the New Year's Six is very much a part of the playoff. Someone is getting in out of the Group of Five. Entering Week 6, the team to watch in the MAC must be Eastern Michigan.
The Eagles are 4-1 on the season, with their lone loss being to last year's national runner-up in Big Ten newcomers Washington. It was not a great loss, to be honest, but the MAC has some bite in it. If EMU were to win that league and be on par with what we have seen out of Miami (OH) and Toledo in recent years, they will be a contender to get in at 11-1, probably even more so if they won the league.
To date, the only MAC to win the Group of Five was the Western Michigan Broncos team led by P.J. Fleck. That team went undefeated in the early days of the College Football Playoff. Although we all love the MAC, it has regularly been one of the weaker Group of Five leagues for talent reasons. However, the league seems to be more competitive than expected, which may get EMU in the end.
One more loss removes Eastern Michigan from the equation, but we must monitor them for now.
5. Liberty Flames (4-0)
Last year's Group of Five winner Liberty is undefeated through five weeks at 4-0. Jamey Chadwell remains one of the most intriguing head coaches at that level. We are all wondering if and when he makes the leap up to the Power Four. It could be after this year or maybe not. Regardless, the Flames being 4-0 keeps the dream alive, but there are two things working against them to get in this season.
The first is CUSA is seen as the weakest league in the Group of Five, possibly even weaker than the MAC. The other is Liberty's very important non-conference game vs. Appalachian State got canceled due to Hurricane Helene. Apparently, it will not be made up. App State may not be a serious playoff contender out of the Group of Five, but the Mountaineers still carry clout in that level of competition.
So if Liberty ran the table to finish the season at 11-0, won CUSA again, do the Flames have a case for getting in? The weak resume and the lack of a 13th data point because of the App State cancelation could prove costly. However, Liberty has a strong brand in the Group of Five, and has looked the part since joining a conference after previously competing as a national independent.
While there is no margin for error when it comes to Liberty making it in, they are still undefeated.
4. Army Black Knights (4-0)
Oh, this could be interesting. Through the first five weeks of the season, two of the three service academies are undefeated, including the Army Black Knights. USMA joined the AAC this season after SMU left for the ACC. Those are a lot of acronyms, abbreviations, whatever... The point is Jeff Monken is one helluva head coach, and he has his team playing with tremendous confidence so far this year.
As with arch-rival Navy, the Black Knights still have to play Notre Dame this season. The national independent Fighting Irish should be favored over both Army and the Midshipmen, but this is a team that also lost at home to Northern Illinois out of the MAC. Given how much the Power Four has taken from The American in recent years, there is a power void at the top worthy of being exploited here.
I give Army a chance to win the league now because of their head coach, how methodical they play and that they will not be dinged for a presumptive loss to Notre Dame. If the Black Knights when that to go undefeated, they are getting in. Even stranger, Army-Navy happens a week after the AAC Championship and only one before the first round of the College Football Playoff. I want the chaos!
I do put their arch rival ahead of them to get in for one reason, and one reason alone, so what is it?
3. Navy Midshipmen (4-0)
Navy is also 4-0 and now entering the heart of AAC play. Having Army now being a conference rival only adds further intrigue to this league that has been poached and poached and poached by Power Four leagues. Thus, it has lowered this league's ceiling, one that may not be occupied at the top by presumptive conference favorites Memphis, South Florida, Tulane and UTSA. So what about Navy?
The Midshipmen run the triple-option just like all service academies. Not to say Brian Newberry can hold a candle to what Jeff Monken is as a head coach, but I think the Midshipmen competing in AAC play for years is a huge help for them in their attempt to navigate it. Every so often, Navy will have a team worthy of contending for a conference championship. They might have the team do that now.
Ultimately, it feels pretty strange to say that entering October that the winner of Army-Navy might be good enough to get into the College Football Playoff. I know, I know, I know, I know... We would be talking about potentially two 10 or 11-wins teams meeting for all the glory in the craziest Army-Navy game of my life. If it delayed the selection committee from revealing its playoff, it would be bonkers!
Again, I am not counting on it, but to see Army and Navy undefeated this late into the season is cool.
2. James Madison Dukes (4-0)
Yes, the James Madison Dukes are eligible for the postseason, and yes, I think they have a very strong possibility of making the College Football Playoff as the Group of Five winner out of the Sun Belt. This is a program that pretty much runs itself. No matter the head coach, the Dukes just prevail. While Curt Cignetti shines at Indiana, Bob Chesney proving to be no slouch coming over either.
The former Holy Cross head coach has the Dukes at 4-0, which includes a mind-melting 70-point scoring effort over the North Carolina Tar Heels. UNC may not be a bowl team, despite its 3-0 start. However, any Group of Five team beats a Power Four team in non-conference play, it should be rewarded and celebrated. The fact JMU made a bowl game last season anyway speaks volumes.
While following this team since they made the leap up to FBS after being an FCS power, this is a team I have seen that fears no one. If they make the playoff, they have the potential to be giant killers in the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup. Admittedly, I don't think they have a shot vs. the SEC runner-up between Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas or whomever, but they will tell themselves they have a chance.
It is teams like the James Madison Dukes that make the Group of Five special and so fun to watch.
1. Boise State Broncos (3-1)
I may have pivoted off the Boise State Broncos a bit prematurely... While I do not trust the Oregon Ducks at all, they are still undefeated and could win the Big Ten. Even if they don't, that is still not a bad loss at all for Boise State. I don't know if they have any margin for error right now, but if they were to win the Mountain West, which includes beating undefeated UNLV, they will be making the playoff.
It has been a while since the Mountain West has been seen as the best Group of Five conference in major college football. Then again, Boise State is the only Mountain West team to win the Group of Five. They are the original BCS busters. It is in the blood. While I don't trust Maddux Madsen as their quarterback, just give the ball to Ashton Jeanty and figure it out later. Jeanty is a truly special player.
The team is playing with a lot of confidence. Hopefully, Spencer Danielson can harness that energy to get better as a head coach on the fly. I do wonder how good this team could have been had Bush Hamdan not left his alma mater to go coordinate the Kentucky Wildcats offense. It is a result of Dave Canales being named the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. Regardless, this team is very good.
As long as UNLV stays relevant, the winner between the Rebels and Boise State could make the CFP.