5 locks to make expanded College Football Playoff, 4 almost locks and 3 wait-and-sees

With the College Football Playoff expanding this postseason from four to 12 teams, that means there will be plenty of opportunities for great college football programs to get their teams in. Where things stand now, it will be five automatic qualifiers (the five highest-ranked conference champions) and seven at-large teams. Thus, the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC will all be getting at least one team in.

In the past, you could never really say that any team was a lock to make the playoff. Not even some of Nick Saban's best Alabama teams, Georgia of late under Kirby Smart or even Jim Harbaugh's final three teams at Michigan. They were all close, and damn good teams at that, but having only four playoff spots available each year made the concept of playoff locks virtually unfathomable before.

But now, we live in a new era of the sport, one where even if you don't win your conference, you still have a great shot at getting in as one of seven at-large teams. Yes, there will be one team getting in from the Group of Five, but in most years that team will be overseeded as the No. 12 seed. They will almost certainly be going up against what should be the third-best team in the country ranked No. 5.

Here are five teams who I think are playoff locks, four who are almost locks and three to wait and see.

5 College Football Playoff locks

Most people in their right mind would have at least four playoff locks, but I have a fifth team in as well.

5. Penn State Nittany Lions

As long as James Franklin continues to be The Driver, going 10-2 every season while at Penn State, the Nittany Lions are going to be a playoff lock as the de facto, third-best team in the expanded Big Ten. Not having to play both Michigan and Ohio State annually will do Franklin's team some good, but I can't for the life of me see a way where a 10-2 team in the Big Ten or the SEC doesn't get into the CFP.

Even though Franklin is kind of becoming a problem, I love his two coordinator additions of Tom Allen and Andy Kotelnicki to replace Manny Diaz and Mike Yurcich, respectively. As long as Drew Allar progresses at quarterback, this team could be a very tough out in the Big Ten. With the likes of Abdul Carter and Nicholas Singleton well on their way to being college stars, I am so bullish on Penn State.

To me, this program can drive itself, even though at times I fear that Franklin will take it into the ditch.

4. Oregon Ducks

Unless you are a massive Washington fan or completely delusional, there is virtually no way Dan Lanning's Oregon Ducks miss out on the expanded playoff. In two years, Lanning has proven to be the strongest branch stemming off the Kirby Smart coaching tree to date. He recruits phenomenally and has brought a competitive edge to an Oregon team that had long been finesse. Not any more...

Right now, I have the Ducks as a playoff lock as the Big Ten runner-up. Offensive coordinator Will Stein is well on his way to getting his own team to lead. He is my pick to win the Frank Broyles Award. Whether it is the ageless Dillon Gabriel under center, or the promising Dante Moore leading the way, Oregon is going to win at least 10 games, probably closer to 11. This is a team that could win it all.

My only concern for the Ducks is travel and the surviving the physical nature of the Big Ten ... initially.

3. Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns are in a similar situation as the Oregon Ducks as being a playoff contender changing leagues. They made the playoff last year after winning the Big 12 over Oklahoma State. Steve Sarkisian has this thing humming in Austin. With his background in having coached in the SEC before, the learning curve isn't going to be as steep for the Longhorns as it will be for say, Oklahoma.

As long as Quinn Ewers is healthy and plays a full slate of games, we are looking at an SEC team that will go no worse than 10-2, probably going 11-1 and might go 12-0. The Longhorns do have a tough schedule, but everybody on their schedule also has to play Texas, so there is that. I expect Texas to make the playoff either as an at-large team, maybe as the SEC champion and winning multiple games.

Right now, the Longhorns are my pick to be the SEC runner-up, but they can absolutely win in Atlanta.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Anything other than getting to the final four of the expanded College Football Playoff should be seen as a massive disappointment for the Ohio State Buckeyes. They are my pick to beat the Oregon Ducks and come out of the Big Ten this season. Right now, I have them as my projected national runner-up, but it wouldn't shock me if they won the whole thing. This team is simply that talented.

While I suspect all of their new additions like Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins and Caleb Downs will have monster seasons, as well as a few key holdovers like Jack Sawyer, TreVeyon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka, this is a make-or-break year for head coach Ryan Day. There are no excuses not to be in national title consideration for him this season, especially with having two rockstar coordinators.

Although I trust Jim Knowles to do a great job, maybe Chip Kelly actively undermines his protege?

1. Georgia Buldogs

I may be biased, but I don't care. My beloved Georgia Bulldogs should be one of the very best teams in college football next season. They are my pick to beat Texas in Atlanta, win the SEC and win their third national championship in four years next season. While I cannot definitively say that Kirby Smart's team is going undefeated, they may have what it takes to run the expanded playoff gauntlet.

With Carson Beck eyeing a shot at being the No. 1 overall pick next spring, he might be Georgia's first Heisman Trophy winner since Herschel Walker brought the hardware home to the Classic City in 1982. For now, Georgia returns a ton of talent, added a few key pieces in the portal and should be an absolute menace for whoever draws the Dawgs on their schedule next year. It is an outstanding team.

Georgia is in a similar boat with Ohio State in that they are playoff locks, but must win multiple games.

4 College Football Playoff almost locks

Now that I have outlined my five College Football Playoff locks, here are four I view as almost locks.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide

I'm not going to be an idiot and cross the Alabama Crimson Tide off entirely this season. While I do have some trepidation about how things will go under new head coach Kalen DeBoer, I just have a feeling that there is enough talent remaining on the roster to go around 10-2, 9-3 at least. The former likely gets the Crimson Tide in as one of the last few at-large teams in the expanded playoff this year.

To me, this year is all about Jalen Milroe showing us how good he can be. Right now, he is my pick to win the Heisman Trophy. He will flourish under DeBoer, enough to the point where he will bring home the hardware and be a first-round pick. Simply put, what he does will be valued even more this season than if Saban were still the head coach. Alabama isn't getting to Atlanta, but they might make the CFP.

If the SEC is getting five teams into the expanded playoff this season, Alabama has to be one of them.

3. Missouri Tigers

The program from the flagship university of The Show Me State showed me a lot last year. Eliah Drinkwitz has made his Missouri Tigers team competitive as hell. They have played Georgia tough in SEC play in both the last two years. While they haven't clipped the Dawgs yet, they are certainly looking like a top-eight team in the country. The roster is loaded, but can this team do it all yet again?

Luther Burden III might be the first wide receiver taken in the 2025 NFL Draft. He is my pick to win the Biletnikoff and be an absolute monster in SEC play. Brady Cook could do a lot for his draft stock this season, but it will take a total team effort for Mizzou to climb the mountain top. To me, I don't think Mizzou has what it takes to win it all, but I would be shocked if they don't make the playoff this season.

If the Tigers get the right matchup, Missouri can win a playoff game, maybe even two if they get lucky.

2. Ole Miss Rebels

I am slightly more bullish on the Ole Miss Rebels than I am on the Missouri Tigers in the SEC this season. If either Georgia or Texas don't get to Atlanta for some reason, Ole Miss is my pick to get their for the first time ever. I love their starting quarterback Jaxson Dart and what he is about entering this season. Ole Miss continues to clean up in the transfer portal, even if they did lose Quinshon Judkins...

To me, this is all about how serious of a head coach does Lane Kiffin want to be. He was never able to beat mentor Nick Saban head-to-head, but he has the roster to compete with the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Missouri and Texas near the top of the SEC. If Kiffin takes it upon himself to be the perfect leader for this team, Ole Miss is arguably the worst team I feel could potentially win the national title.

If any non-playoff lock is getting to the final four, I would have to go with Ole Miss over everyone else.

1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

While I think Alabama will probably make the 12-team field, and most certainly expect for Missouri and Ole Miss to do so, this could be the year of the Irish. Yes, Notre Dame is poised to have a fantastic season. Landing former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard in the transfer portal is absolutely massive for this offense. So is getting Mike Denbrock to come back and call plays after killing it over at LSU.

Because Notre Dame is a national independent, the Irish won't have that 13th data point to help, or hurt, its playoff case. As long as the Irish go something like 10-2, they will have a great chance at getting in. The schedule is fairly navigable to begin with. Right now, this all comes down to how good of a head coach Marcus Freeman can become in year three at the helm. He will face a lot of pressure.

If Notre Dame played in the ACC, they'd be my pick to win that league, possibly being a playoff lock.

3 College Football Playoff wait-and-sees

With those nine teams probably making the playoff, here are three more I am very intrigued by today.

3. LSU Tigers

This is the Brian Kelly pop year. Every third season under him has resulted in great things for his college team. He won 10 games at Central Michigan, went to a BCS bowl at Cincinnati and played for a national championship at Notre Dame. Although the SEC is absolutely loaded this year, the odds are very much in LSU's favor to be one of a handful of teams to make the CFP out of its league this year.

I am a huge fan of what Garrett Nussmeier could do in his first year as the starting quarterback. As long as Joe Sloan and Cortez Hankton's offense doesn't skip a beat, this could be a top-10 team in the nation. Assuming Blake Baker's defense is markedly better than the slopfest it was last year under Kelly, I can get behind LSU making its second-ever trip to the playoff. They have the schedule to do it.

I may like Alabama's chances slightly more, but LSU has a better shot that someone like a Tennessee.

2. Florida State Seminoles

Look. Florida State isn't my pick to win the ACC, or even get to Charlotte. I have the right to change my mind, but I tend to like Clemson and NC State a bit more right now. What I am willing to go out on a limb on is that Florida State is my likeliest team to make the playoff out of the ACC this season. Mike Norvell has this thing humming down in Tallahassee. If D.J. Uiagalelei is halfway decent, then maybe?

At this time, Florida State is in a group of about four teams that could make the playoff out of the ACC. For as bullish as I am on NC State, I trust the Seminoles more. Even though I am having a hard time crossing Clemson off, Florida State has been the better program of late. And for as much fun as Miami could be this season, they are still coached by Mario Cristobal. Therefore, I kind of like FSU.

I'm the most confident about Florida State being a top-15 team in the nation than anyone in the ACC.

1. Utah Utes

I will give my FanSided.com colleague Alicia de Artola Castillo a ton of credit here. She may have opened up my eyes to how good the Utah Utes can be this season. Like Oregon and Texas, the Utes are a playoff contender switching leagues. For as much as I love Kyle Whittingham as a head coach and Cam Rising's ability to stay eligible forever, the power void in the Big 12 leaves so much unknown.

Utah isn't my pick to win the Big 12, mostly because I really like Ollie Gordon II at running back for Oklahoma State. However, just like Florida State in the ACC, I trust Utah's ability to stay in the playoff mix better than pretty much anyone out of its league. I expect Utah will be a top-four team in the Big 12. The big question is if the Utes can hold off Arizona, Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

Utah could either run away with the new Big 12, or pull back majorly while adjusting to its new league.