College football rankings by playoff chance: Who is projected to get in after Week 3?

Thankfully, the games will sort themselves out. Through the first three weeks of the college football season, we not only had some shakeups within the latest AP Top 25 Poll, but some movement on each team's projected chances of making the expanded College Football Playoff. ESPN handed out every team competing in FBS' chances of making the 12-team field. The results are earth-shattering.

Disclaimer, these numbers are only projections. They are based on what we have seen out of every team up to this point, as well as what their future schedule has in store for them. While many of the usual suspects we have had projected are still getting in, the order looks a tad wonky. Even more concerning, there will be plenty worth discussing if this season goes chalk like we all expect it to.

Here is every college team's projected chances of making the playoff that is 10 percent or better.

And here is what the College Football Playoff field would look like based on these ESPN projections.

1. Texas Longhorns (Projected SEC Champion)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (Projected Big Ten Champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (Projected ACC Champion)
4. UCF Knights (Projected Big 12 Champion)
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (Projected SEC Runner-Up)
6. Ole Miss Rebels (Projected SEC At-Large)
7. Tennessee Volunteers (Projected SEC At-Large)
8. Georgia Bulldogs (Projected SEC At-Large)
9. Oregon Ducks (Projected Big Ten Runner-Up)
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (Projected Big Ten At-Large)
11. Missouri Tigers (Projected SEC At-Large)
12. Boise State Broncos (Projected Mountain West Champion/Group of Five Champion)

Let's now unpack what may be true, and what might be a ton of rampant statistical hogwash here.

Breaking down ESPN's College Football Playoff percentages projections

Of the 12 teams the ESPN model projected in, I don't think anybody is going to have much of an issue with 11 of those teams getting in. The order may be up for debate, but how is UCF coming in at No. 4? The Knights shockingly have the best odds of getting in from the Big 12 at 36.7, edging out Kansas State at 33.5. UCF may very well end up winning the Big 12, but they aren't on anyone's radar just yet.

The other thing I have beef with is Georgia coming in at No. 8. This may be personal bias getting in the way, but this isn't the sixth-best team in the country, dropped down to No. 8 because of the AQ spots at No. 3 and No. 4 almost certainly reserved for the Big 12 and ACC champions. The Dawgs did not look great vs. Kentucky and the schedule is brutal, but this team has only had two losses since 2021.

Another thing that might raise a few eyebrows is Washington State actually has the best shot of getting in outside of the Power Four at 25.1 percent. The only problem is the Pac-12 in its current state does not have enough members to merit an AQ spot. This means projected Mountain West winner Boise State would get in at the Mountain West as the Group of Five champion at only 23.5.

The only thing I know is every team's chances of getting in will change drastically after each week.