Preseason AP Top 25 released: 5 overrated and underrated teams from the initial poll

Until a dozen or so individuals meet for the initial College Football Playoff rankings, the AP Top 25 Poll will be our guiding light in major college football. The preseason poll came out on Monday afternoon, and we could not be any happier. We have so much discuss. It also indicates that college football is right around the corner. You may be passing the time watching NFL preseason, but we are so close!

Now that I have had a few minutes to dissect how the Associated Press feels about the best teams in major college football, I have some bones to pick. Yes, they got the top four right, in that order, but after that, I have some thoughts. What I am going to do today is identify five teams the AP grossly overrated and five others that the AP criminally underrated. The answer lies somewhere in between.

Here is what the first official AP Top 25 Poll heading into the 2024 college football season looks like.

1. Georgia Bulldogs: 1,532 (46)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes: 1,490 (15)
3. Oregon Ducks: 1,403 (1)
4. Texas Longhorns: 1,386
5. Alabama Crimson Tide: 1,260
6. Ole Miss Rebels: 1,189
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1,122
8. Penn State Nittany Lions: 1,060
9. Michigan Wolverines: 995
10. Florida State Seminoles: 971
11. Missouri Tigers: 927
12. Utah Utes: 887
13. LSU Tigers: 804
14. Clemson Tigers: 689
15. Tennessee Volunteers: 629
16. Oklahoma Sooners: 566
17. Oklahoma State Cowboys: 538
18. Kansas State Wildcats: 526
19. Miami Hurricanes: 492
20. Texas A&M Aggies: 292
21. Arizona Wildcats: 237
22. Kansas Jayhawks: 231
23. USC Trojans: 172
24. North Carolina State Wolfpack: 171
25. Iowa Hawkeyes: 140

And these are the other teams that received votes from the Associated Press during the preseason.

Louisville 111, Virginia Tech 77, Boise State 47, SMU 33, Iowa State 33, Liberty 32, Washington 23, West Virginia 17, Memphis 16, Nebraska 16, Wisconsin 15, UTSA 6, Tulane 5, Appalachian State 4, Kentucky 3, Auburn 2, Colorado 1

Let's start with a team that will almost certainly be good, but not as good as they were a year ago.

Overrated: No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide

Are the Alabama Crimson Tide a serious contender to make the College Football Playoff yet again? Oh, absolutely! However, they face a daunting schedule, as well has having pretty much an entirely new coaching staff. Who doesn't love Kalen DeBoer? While I am a huge fan of what Jalen Milroe can do under center, I remain skeptical that Alabama's guaranteed pullback will only be a couple of spots.

The AP saw Alabama as the fifth-best team in the country. I have them inside the top 10. If you swapped places with them at Notre Dame at No. 7 or Penn State at No. 8, I would not have much of a problem with that. They feel like the ninth-best team in the country, one with an 11-1 ceiling, but an 8-4 floor. This could be a 10-2 team, but I think so many changes problem has them around a 9-3 one.

Alabama is getting the benefit of the doubt, even though we are not respecting the regime change.

Underrated: No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions

Right now, I would have Penn State as like my fifth, sixth or seventh most likely team to win the national championship. James Franklin has a very good team, one that should be at wore a 10-2 driving school over in State College. I don't think they are better than Ohio State or Oregon, but I think they are better than Alabama. I would have probably had Penn State as my No. 5 team if I had a vote.

Even though the Nittany Lions have a pair of new coordinators of note in Tom Allen and Andy Kotelnicki, I remain optimistic about Penn State's overall upside. The Big Ten is getting either three or four teams into the playoff this winter. At this point, I would honestly be shocked if Penn State is not one of them. They have been a lock to make the playoff for me all offseason long and it isn't changing.

Ole Miss, Notre Dame and Penn State should all be ranked ahead of Alabama in the initial AP Top 25.

Overrated: No. 9 Michigan Wolverines

Last year was last year, and this is now. How are the Michigan Wolverines at top-10 team? They lost so many players and most of their coaching staff off last season's national championship squad. Michigan not only has an unforgiving schedule, but is going to get everyone's best punch this season, not just because they are the defending national champions, but because they have been cheating.

No, I am not stupid enough to say Michigan doesn't belong inside the top 25 because the Wolverines most certainly belong there. My beef is that they need to prove that they still belong because this is an entirely different team. They may still wear Michigan's iconic uniforms, but we are not going to be seeing a playoff-caliber team to the degree that we saw out of Ann Arbor the three previous seasons.

Michigan needs to swapped with at least Utah at No. 12 for me to think about getting behind them.

Underrated: No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers

It has to be Nico Iamaleava's rocket right arm, but I am all-in on the Tennessee Volunteers this year. Although they still have to face the likes of Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma this season, I suspect that the Vols will overachieve as opposed to underachieving like they did a year ago. Look for them to be around the same caliber of team that we saw during Hendon Hooker's final season in Knoxville.

I have a little bit more time to get my head around this, but I am dangerously close to putting the Vols in as one of seven at-large College Football Playoff teams. They are probably closer to No. 12 than they are to being the No. 5 seed, but I think there is a chance they could be way better than the No. 15 ranking the Associated Press gave them. Honestly, maybe let's swap them with Michigan at No. 9?

Josh Heupel's offense doesn't translate to the NFL, but it is a prolific one that thrives in the SEC.

Overrated: No. 11 Missouri Tigers

Our new managing editor for FanSided.com Megan Melle may hate me for this, but I am starting to sour a bit on her Missouri Tigers coming into this season. They won the Liam and Noel Gallagher Definitely Maybe Might Be Good Award last year, but again, that was last season. The Tigers should win a ton of games this year, but that schedule, combined with greater expectations sounds like 9-3.

Yes, the Tigers should absolutely still be viewed as a serious College Football Playoff contender. My False Start co-host Cody Williams and I agree on the same seven teams with serious aspirations to make the expanded 12-team field out of the SEC. However, I need to see Eliah Drinkwitz do it one more time before I view his team the same as I do say, Lane Kiffin over in Oxford at Ole Miss.

If we were to flip Missouri with the Tennessee Volunteers coming in at No. 15, I think that would work.

Underrated: No. 18 Kansas State Wildcats

At the time of this writing, I am still trying to figure out who I like to play for and potentially win the Big 12. To me, the Kansas State Wildcats coming in at No. 18 feels way too low. K-State is on a shortlist of four or five teams I think could realistically get to Arlington. They almost feel like a lock to me to get there, to be honest. If Avery Johnson is as good as I think he is, then K-State could be the No. 3 seed.

As far as trying to figure out where the Wildcats should be slotted in the initial AP Top 25 Poll, they need to be at least at No. 16 where Oklahoma resides, possibly as high as where LSU is at coming in at No. 13. This feels like a top-15 team in the country, one that could potentially make the 12-team College Football Playoff field as an 11-1 at-large team should they not win the Big 12 Championship.

This feels like a team that is closer to going 11-1 than it does 9-3. Will going 10-2 be good enough?

Overrated: No. 16 Oklahoma Sooners

For as much as I am all-in on the SEC this year, I am all-out on the Oklahoma Sooners. I get why athletic director Joe Castiglione gave head coach Brent Venables a massive extension ahead of his third year and first in the SEC. There is a chance this team could go 6-6. The Sooners' first SEC schedule is that unforgiving. It is why I have a harder time seeing them be better than an 8-4 team.

A lot of this can be mitigated by the play of sensational sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold. Again, I am very high on his upside as a college football player, but I need to see how Oklahoma handles itself vs. better weekly competition before I crown them. Arch rival Texas gets the benefit of the doubt, based on how well the team has recruited and performed under Steve Sarkisian of late.

I would have the Sooners inside the top 25, but it would probably be as a team ranked in the 20s.

Underrated: No. 23 USC Trojans

I may not particularly care for what Lincoln Riley is about, but we have to have the USC Trojans coming in higher than 23rd on this preseason AP Top 25 Poll, guys. While I fully understand why more and more people are running out of patience with Riley, I think there is a strong possibility that USC emerges as the third or fourth best team in the new Big Ten. They have a schedule to go 10-2 or so.

As long as the defense is even marginally better than it was a year ago, I have a feeling we may see a more cohesive team across the board in Los Angeles on the football field. Miller Moss certainly has my intrigue as the Trojans' new starting quarterback. Again, there is a definite ceiling with this team, which is close to what they were two years ago: A playoff-caliber team that will lose in the first round.

I would probably swap the Trojans with Riley's former employer in the Oklahoma Sooners at No. 16.

Overrated: No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies

Unfortunately, I think we are getting to 2023 Texas Tech preseason territory with the Texas A&M Aggies. While I know that Mike Elko can coach, handling even moderate expectations has never been the Aggies' calling card. Although they do have one of the most navigable schedules in the SEC, this feels like an 8-4 team more than it does a 10-2 team. They will probably end up going around 9-3.

That mark might be merited with the No. 20 overall ranking in some regard, but again, I need to see it before I believe it. In truth, I probably would have still put Texas A&M into my initial top 25 poll if I had a vote, but the Aggies definitely would have been the last quintile in. If you swapped them with Iowa at No. 25 or North Carolina State at No. 24, that might have landed a little better for me. It is what it is...

Texas A&M may actually be properly rated, but I really do not want this to be Texas Tech from last year.

Underrated: No. 24 North Carolina State Wolfpack

We have arrived at one of my many college football darlings for the 2024 season. That would be Dave Doeren's North Carolina State Wolfpack. To me, they are firmly a top-four team in the new ACC, possibly good enough to not only get to Charlotte, but get the AQ spot as the conference champion. NC State would be the No. 4 seed in that instance, but people need to put some respect on this team.

The gap between them at No. 24 and the Miami Hurricanes at No. 19 is inconsequential. While I don't think I would have the stones to have them as high as Clemson at No. 14, I wouldn't be opposed to having them ranked around where Kansas State is at No. 18. Maybe if we were to swap the Wolfpack with the Texas A&M Aggies a few spots ahead of them at No. 20 would do the trick here?

I have to really look at the schedule here shortly, but this feels like a team with an 8-4 floor at worst.