Predicting the first 5 CFB head coaches to get canned in 2024

With college football set to begin in two months, a handful of notable head coaches are really starting to feel the pressure. While coaches like Mario Cristobal, Ryan Day and Lincoln Riley are facing a different level of expectations, it would not shock me if all three of them saw their teams win 10 games this season. They are on the hot seat, relatively speaking, but not like these other coaches.

For various reasons, the five Power Four coaches I am going to touch on hit differently. It feels more likely than not that 2024 will be their last seasons at the helm of their respective programs. Whether it is being consistently inconsistent, winning with somebody else's players previously, or never really even getting off the ground, I would be shocked to see all five of these men leading again in 2025.

Since it is so hard to tell when an underperforming coach is going to get fired, I am going to do my best to get out ahead of this. I have taken a look at the five head coaches in question's schedule and will try to predict when enough is enough is enough. When are these coaches who are firmly on the hot seat going to get fired? Maybe one or two of them are able to survive this season, but maybe not.

Let's start with a guy who has ACC roots, but has struggled mightily to get his team off the ground.

5. Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott

In his first two seasons on the job, Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott has gone a disastrous 6-16 (3-12). While he did a remarkable job dealing with the tragic events that plagued his program in year one, UVA was arguably the worst team in the ACC last year at 3-9 (2-6). I don't know if getting to a bowl game is the benchmark for success, but the Hoos will need to win at least four or five games.

Looking at Virginia's 2024 regular-season schedule, I see four guaranteed losses: Louisville, at Clemson, at Notre Dame, and SMU. The other eight are varying degrees of winnable: Richmond, at Wake Forest, Maryland, at Coastal Carolina, Boston College, North Carolina, at Pittsburgh, and at Virginia Tech. To me, they need to split those eight to go 4-8 overall for Elliott to have any shot of keeping his job.

While I think a road loss at Pitt coming off a bye could be bad news for Elliott, it will all come down to the Hoos' massive rivalry game with the Hokies at season's end. If they get smoked like a turkey by a bunch of castrated turkeys around Turkey Day, I cannot see a way Elliott gets to come back for a fourth year after leading three well-below .500 teams in a row. Exit light for Elliott. Enter Sandman.

If UVA goes 4-8 with another loss to emerging ACC power Virginia Tech, that will be it for Elliott.

4. South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer

Man, is South Carolina's SEC slate brutal or what? While I believe there are three wins to be had in the non-conference for Shane Beamer's Gamecocks (Old Dominion, Akron, Wofford), Clemson looms large at the end of the season. While I think Beamer will get to experience reckoning day in Death Valley before it is over, what if South Carolina only wins a game or two in conference play this year?

Looking at South Carolina's 2024 regular-season schedule, I see three certain losses in SEC play (LSU, Ole Miss and at Alabama). At Vanderbilt is probably a win, but the other four games in conference play are totally up in the air (at Kentucky, at Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri). To me, the Gamecocks need to go at least bowling, but this feels closer to a 4-8 team than it does to a 6-6 one.

I think about the earliest Beamer could get fired is after losing the Battle of Columbia to Mizzou at home to fall to something like 3-7. That would include wins over Old Dominion, Akron and Vanderbilt with only Wofford and Clemson remaining. Since I think it is more likely that South Carolina gets at least two SEC wins, judgment day may not be coming until the end of the season in Death Valley.

Going 6-6 with a competitive showing vs. Clemson might be just enough to save Beamer's job.

3. Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda

When I mentioned a coach that won with somebody else's players, I was absolutely referring to Dave Aranda over at Baylor. It is looking more and more than he won with Matt Rhule's guys in 2021. That was an unforgettable season in Baylor football, but the last two years have the Bears stumbling down to the bottom tier of the new Big 12. They might be a bottom-four team, but are certainly bottom half.

Looking at Baylor's 2024 regular-season schedule, you may notice 10 Big 12 opponents on the schedule. To fulfill previous scheduling arrangements, Baylor will play Utah in the non-conference, just like Kansas State will with Arizona. Regardless, that is still probably a loss for the Bears. For whatever reason, I feel like seven or even eight wins might be what it takes for Aranda to keep his job.

Looking at their first four games (Tarleton State, at Utah, Air Force, at Colorado), that feels like 3-1 for Baylor with a loss to the Utes. In their final eight, I feel like losses are coming at Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Kansas. A bad loss at home to rival TCU on Nov. 2 could be when it is coming, but it might be two weeks later at West Virginia. There are plenty of landmines to be had for Baylor this season.

Since there's no Thanksgiving Weekend rivalry game to be had for Baylor, an axing may come sooner.

2. Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman

I have to be honest. How sure are we that Arkansas will win a game in SEC play? I think the Razorbacks are too talented to go 0-for this season, but man, is Sam Pittman sweating on the hot seat in Fayetteville. While he did briefly restore some semblance of pride to Arkansas football, he has proven to only be as good as his coordinators allow him to be as a head coach. This could get ugly.

Looking at Arkansas' 2024 regular-season schedule, having to play at Oklahoma State in the non-conference is brutal. That is a serious Big 12 title contender, and a likely loss on the schedule for Arkansas before conference play commences. If the Hogs got 3-1 in the non-conference with wins over UAPB, UAB and Louisiana Tech, are there three wins to be had in SEC play to get them to 6-6?

At Auburn and at Mississippi State are the two easiest SEC games for the Hogs. They could conceivably win both. Is there even a third to be had? I don't see them beating Tennessese, LSU, Ole Miss and rival Texas, so they would have to steal one vs. Texas A&M or Missouri in those rivalry games. Since I think Mizzou is going to be damn good, it has to be A&M, but I like the Aggies as well.

I think there is a chance Pittman losing to Texas in mid-November is his last game as a head coach.

1. Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier

It feels like a dead on arrival-type of season for good, ole Billy Napier. He has virtually no chance to keep his job at Florida. The Gators are not only a struggling SEC team, but they have the hardest schedule I have ever seen in my entire life. They have to play Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss back-to-back-to-back-to-back to finish up SEC play, right before they end the season with Florida State.

Looking at Florida's 2024 regular-season schedule, they not only have to end SEC play with those four games, but they also draw the other three Power Four teams of note in-state out of conference in Miami, UCF and Florida State. UCF could be winnable, but the Gators have to beat the Canes for Napier to even have a chance. Is 6-6 even a possibility with this slate? Is this team going to win three?

Their easiest non-conference game is Samford. Their three most winnable SEC games are Texas A&M, at Mississippi State and Kentucky. Florida needs to win all four of those games, plus get wins over Miami and UCF to get to 6-6. Maybe they steal one vs. Tennessee or something to get to 7-5. Regardless, this feels like a 3-9 team, one that could see Napier out well before Thanksgiving Day.

I think there is a chance Napier could be done as early as another loss to Georgia in Jacksonville.